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Inequality and Imbalances : a Monetary Union Agent-Based Model

 

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Type:   Working paper
 
Titre:   Inequality and Imbalances : a Monetary Union Agent-Based Model
 
Auteur(s):   Cardacci, Alberto - Lombardy Advanced School of Economics Milan (Auteur)
Saraceno, Francesco (1967-...) - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Auteur)
 
Date de publication:   2017-12
 
Éditeur:   Paris  :  Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques
 
Collection:   Working Paper de l'OFCE  :  30
 
Mots-clés:   [en] Inequality, Current Account, Currency Union, Agent -based model
 
JEL:   C63,  D31,  E21,  F32,  F43
 
Résumé:   [en] Our paper investigates the impact of rising inequality in a two-country macroeconomic model with an agent-based household sector characterised by peer effects in consumption. In particular, the model highlights the role of inequality in determining diverging balance of payments dynamics within a currency union. Inequality may drive the two countries into different growth patterns: where peer effects in consumption interact with higher credit availability, rising income inequality leads to the emergence of a debt-led growth. Where social norms determine weaker emulation and credit availability is lower, an export-led regime arises. Eventually, a crisis emerges endogenously due to the sudden-stop of capital ows from the net lending country, triggered by the excessive risk associated to the dramatic amount of private debt accumulated by households in the borrowing country. Monte Carlo simulations for a wide range of calibrations confirm the robustness of our results.
 
URL:   https://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/dtravail/WP2017-30.pdf
 
 

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Version de l'éditeur wp2017-30-inequalityandimbalances-acardaci.pdf 2,06 MB