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The Deterrent Effects of Prison: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

 

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Type:   Article
 
Titre:   The Deterrent Effects of Prison: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
 
Auteur(s):   Drago, Francesco - Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II (Auteur)
Galbiati, Roberto (1977-...) (Auteur)
Vertova, Pietro - University of Bergamo (Auteur)
 
In:   Journal of Political Economy
 
Date de publication:   2009-04
 
Éditeur:   ÉTATS-UNIS
 
Volume:   117
 
Numéro:   2
 
Pages:   257-280  p.
 
ISSN:   00223808
 
DOI:   10.1086/599286
 
Mots-clés:   [fr] Emprisonnement, Récidive, Incarcération [en] Imprisonment, Recidivism
 
Résumé:   [en] The Collective Clemency Bill passed by the Italian Parliament in July 2006 represents a natural experiment to analyze the behavioral response of individuals to an exogenous manipulation of prison sentences. On the basis of a unique data set on the postrelease behavior of former inmates, we find that 1 month less time served in prison commuted into 1 month more in expected sentence for future crimes reduces the probability of recidivism by 0.16 percentage points. From this result we estimate an elasticity of average recidivism with respect to the expected punishment equal to −0.74 for a 7-month period.
 
 

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