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Assessing the Equalizing Force of Mobility Using Short Panels: France, 1990–2000

 

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Type:   Article
 
Titre:   Assessing the Equalizing Force of Mobility Using Short Panels: France, 1990–2000
 
Auteur(s):   Bonhomme, Stéphane - CEMFI (Auteur)
Robin, Jean-Marc (1961-...) - UCL Department of Economics (Auteur)
 
In:   Review of Economic Studies
 
Date de publication:   2009
 
Éditeur:   Wiley-Blackwell
 
Numéro:   76
 
Pages:   63-92  p.
 
ISSN:   00346527
 
Résumé:   In this paper, we document whether and how much the equalizing force of earnings mobility has changed in France in the 1990’s. For this purpose, we use a representative three-year panel, the French Labour Force Survey. We develop a model of earnings dynamics that combines a flexible specification of marginal earnings distributions (to fit the large cross-sectional dimension of the data) with a tight parametric representation of the dynamics (adapted to the short time-series dimension). Log earnings are modelled as the sum of a deterministic component, an individual fixed effect and a transitory component which is assumed first-order Markov. The transition probability of the transitory component is modelled as a one-parameter Plackett copula. We estimate this model using a sequential expectation-maximization algorithm. We exploit the estimated model to study employment/earnings inequality in France over the 1990– 2002 period. We show that, in phase with business-cycle fluctuations (a recession in 1993 and two peaks in 1990 and 2000), earnings mobility decreases when cross-section inequality and unemployment risk increase. We simulate individual earnings trajectories and compute present values of lifetime earnings for various horizons. Inequality presents a hump-shaped evolution over the period, with a 9% increase between 1990 and 1995 and a decrease afterwards. Accounting for unemployment yields an increase of 11%. Moreover, this increase is persistent, as it translates into a 12% increase in the variance of log present values. The ratio of inequality in present values to inequality in one-year earnings, a natural measure of immobility or of the persistence of inequality, remains remarkably constant over the business cycle.
 
 

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