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  • RAGOT Xavier (13)
  • ALGAN Yann (4)
  • ALLAIS Olivier (2)
  • CHRÉTIEN Edouard (1)
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The study of macroeconomic fluctuations assumes that the behavior of the whole (aggregates) cannot be reduced to the sum of the parts (agents, markets). This is because interdependencies between markets can substantially amplify, or on the contrary dampen, shocks that at any time disturb the equilibrium. The understanding of general-equilibrium effects, on which direct evidence is limited, which are empirically blurred by multiple potential confounding factors, and for which controlled experiments are almost impossible to design, is necessarily more conjectural than the study of individual behavior or of a specific market. However, ignoring these effects because they do not have the same degree of empirical certainty as a directly observed microeconomic effect can lead to serious policy mistakes.

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We analyse the effects of fiscal expansions when public debt is used as liquidity by the private sector.Aggregate shocks are introduced into an incomplete-market economy where heterogenous agentsface occasionally binding borrowing constraints and store wealth to smooth out idiosyncratic incomefluctuations. Debt-financed increases in spending facilitate self-insurance by bond holders and maycrowd in private consumption. They also loosen the borrowing constraints faced by firms, therebyraising labour demand and possibly the real wage. Whether private consumption and wages rise orfall ultimately depends on the relative strengths of the liquidity and wealth effects that arise followingthe shock

This paper analyses the effects of money shocks on macroeconomic aggregates in a tractable flexible-price, incomplete-markets environment that generates persistent wealth inequalities amongst agents. In this framework, current inflation redistribute wealth from the cash-rich employed to the cash-poor unemployed and induce the former to increase their labour supply in order to maintain their desired levels of consumption and precautionary savings. If the shocks are persistent, however, they also raise inflation expectations and thus deter the employed from saving and supplying labour. We relate the strength of these two inflation taxes to the underlying parameters of the model and study how they compete in determining the overall sign and slope of the implied ‘output–inflation tradeoff’ relation.

in B.E Journal of Macroeconomics Publication date 2011-05
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Financial crises are often associated with an endogenous credit reversal followed by a fall in asset prices and serious disruptions in the financial sector. To account for this sequence of events, this paper constructs a model where excessive risk-taking by investors leads to a bubble in asset prices, and where the supply of credit to these investors is endogenous. We show that the interplay between excessive risk-taking and the endogeneity of credit may give rise to multiple equilibria associated with different levels of lending, asset prices, and output. Stochastic equilibria lead, with positive probability, to an inefficient liquidity dry-up, a market crash, and widespread failures by borrowers. The possibility of multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling crises is shown to be related to the severity of the risk-shifting problem in the economy.

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This paper analyses the e§ects of transitory increases in government spending when public debt is used as liquidity by the private sector. Aggregate shocks are introduced into a áexible-price, incomplete-market economy where heterogenous, inÖnitely-lived households face occasionally binding borrowing constraints and store wealth to smooth out idiosyncratic income áuctuations. Debt-Önanced increases in public spending facilitate self-insurance by bond holders and may crowd in private consumption. The implied higher stock of liquidity also loosens the borrowing constraints faced by Örms, thereby raising labour demand and possibly the real wage. Whether private consumption and wages actually rise or fall ultimately depends on the relative strengths of the liquidity and wealth e§ects that arise following the shock.

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This paper analyses the effects of money shocks on macroeconomic aggregates in a flexible-price, incomplete-markets environment that generates persistent wealth inequalities amongst agents. In this framework, unexpected money shocks redistribute wealth from the cash-rich employed to the cash-poor unemployed, and induce the former to increase their labour supply in order to maintain their desired levels of consumption and precautionary savings. The reduced-form dynamics of the model is a textbook "output-inflation tradeoff" equation whereby inflation shocks raise current output. The attenuating role of mean inflation and money growth persistence on this non-neutrality tradeoff, as well as some of the welfare implications of wealth redistribution, are also examined.

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Cet article vise à clarifier le débat sur l’excédent courant allemand en comparant la compétitivité-prix et les performances à l’exportation de l’Allemagne et de la France. Nous avançons qu’un déterminant fondamental des déséquilibres entre les deux pays est la divergence des coûts salariaux unitaires entre ces deux pays à partir des années 2000. Cette divergence procède de trois facteurs. Tout d’abord, les réformes sur le marché du travail en Allemagne à partir de la fin des années 1990 ont conduit à une hausse de l’offre de travail, accompagnée d’une modération salariale, voire d’une baisse des salaires réels. Ce gain de compétitivité-prix s’est ensuite amplifié en raison, d’une part, de la fixité du taux change nominal et, d’autre part, de rigidités salariales nominales en France. Nous construisons un modèle simplifié de commerce international afin d’identifier le rôle de la concurrence pour la demande mondiale dans une union monétaire. Ce mécanisme est absent de nombreux travaux analysant les déséquilibres au sein de la zone euro (qui considèrent l’Europe comme une économie fermée). Une hausse de l’inflation et une meilleure coordination des politiques salariales contribueraient à faciliter une reconvergence européenne.

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In this paper, we analyse the effects of transitory fiscal expansions when public debt is used as liquidity by the private sector. Aggregate shocks are introduced into a tractable fexible-price, incomplete-market economy where heterogenous, infinitely-lived agents face occasionally binding borrowing constraints and store wealth to smooth out idiosyncratic income fluctuations. Debt-financed increases in public spending facilitate self-insurance by bond holders and may crowd in private consumption. The implied higher stock of liquidity also loosens the borrowing constraints faced by .rms, thereby raising labour demand and possibly the real wage. Whether private consumption and wages actually rise or fall ultimately depends on the relative strengths of the liquidity and wealth effects that arise following the shock. The expansionary effects of tax cuts are also discussed.

The joint behaviour of US aggregate consumption and saving over the period 2007–2009, and notably the pronouned U-shaped pattern of consumption together with the rise in saving, are difficult to reconcile with the view that financial markets are frictionless. We propose an alternative framework in which financial markets are incomplete and where households form a buffer stock of precautionary saving to self-insure against the (time-varying) risk of falling into unemployment, with the consequence of considerably amplifying and propagating crises. Our model can be solved in closed form because the wealth heterogeneity generated by uninsured income shocks remains minimal. We end the article by arguing that fully incorporating uninsured and time-varying individual risks into macroeconomic analysis may drastically alter our understanding of the business cycle, macroeconomic policy, and the role of financial intermediaries.

Publication date 2005-01
CHALLE Edouard
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Financial crises are often associated with an endogenous credit reversal followed by a fall in asset prices and serious disruptions in the financial sector. To account for this sequence of events, this paper constructs a model where excessive risk-taking by investorsleads to a bubble in asset prices, and where the supply of credit to these investors is endogenous. We show that the interplay between excessive risk-taking and the endogeneity of credit may give rise to multiple equilibria associated with different levels of lending, asset prices, and output. Stochastic equilibria lead, with positive probability, to an inefficient liquidity dry-up, a market crash, and widespread failures by borrowers. The possibility of multipleequilibria and self-fulfilling crises is shown to be related to the severity of the risk-shifting problem in the economy

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