Co-auteur
  • ALGAN Yann (10)
  • HUILLERY Elise (4)
  • FOUCAULT Martial (3)
  • VITARO Frank (3)
  • Voir plus
Type de Document
  • Working paper (8)
  • Article (4)
  • Livre (1)
  • Thèse de doctorat (1)
  • Voir plus
in Psychological Medicine Publié en 2020
VERGUNST Francis
TREMBLAY Richard E.
NAGIN Daniel
ZHENG Yao
GALERA Cédric
PARK Jungwee
VITARO Frank
CÔTÉ Sylvana
10
vues

0
téléchargements
Background Childhood disruptive behaviors are highly prevalent and associated with adverse long-term social and economic outcomes. Trajectories of welfare receipt in early adulthood and the association of childhood behaviors with high welfare receipt trajectories have not been examined. Methods Boys (n = 1000) from low socioeconomic backgrounds were assessed by kindergarten teachers for inattention, hyperactivity, aggression, opposition, and prosociality, and prospectively followed up for 30 years. We used group-base trajectory modeling to estimate trajectories of welfare receipt from age 19–36 years using government tax return records, then examined the association between teacher-rated behaviors and trajectory group membership using mixed effects multinomial regression models. Results Three trajectories of welfare receipt were identified: low (70.8%), declining (19.9%), and chronic (9.3%). The mean annual personal employment earnings (US$) for the three groups at age 35/36 years was $36 500 (s.d. = $24 000), $15 600 (s.d. = $16 275), and $1700 (s.d. = $4800), respectively. Relative to the low welfare receipt group, a unit increase in inattention (mean = 2.64; s.d. = 2.32, range = 0–8) at age 6 was associated with an increased risk of being in the chronic group (relative risk ratio; RRR = 1.16, 95% CI 1.03–1.31) and in the declining group (RRR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.03–1.23), after adjustment for child IQ and family adversity, and independent of other behaviors. Family adversity was more strongly associated with trajectories of welfare receipt than any behavior. Conclusions Boys from disadvantaged backgrounds exhibiting high inattention in kindergarten are at elevated risk of chronic welfare receipt during adulthood. Screening and support for inattentive behaviors beginning in kindergarten could have long-term social and economic benefits for individuals and society.

Le populisme est le produit de deux secousses telluriques. Premier séisme : la montée d’un immense ressentiment contre les partis et les institutions politiques. Face à l’échec de la droite et de la gauche à contenir les excès du capitalisme, la radicalité « anti-système » a brisé les compromis que l’un et l’autre camps étaient parvenus à édifier. Deuxième séisme : la fin de la société de classes, au profit d’une société d’individus pensant leur position sociale en termes subjectifs. Une nouvelle polarité en résulte, qui sépare les « confiants » des « méfiants » envers autrui. La droite populiste surgit au croisement d’une double méfiance – à l’égard des institutions politiques et à l’égard de la société. Elle prospère sur le désenchantement démocratique, tout en renouvelant le clivage gauche-droite. Fondé sur des données inédites, cet ouvrage se révèle essentiel pour comprendre le présent et l’avenir des sociétés démocratiques. Doyen de l’École d’affaires publiques, Yann Algan est professeur d’économie à Sciences Po. Économiste, Elizabeth Beasley est chercheuse à l'Observatoire du bien-être au CEPREMAP, et ancienne directrice de J-PAL France. Daniel Cohen est directeur du département d’économie de l’École normale supérieure et professeur à l’École d’économie de Paris. Directeur du CEVIPOF (CNRS), Martial Foucault est professeur des universités en science politique à Sciences Po.

Publié en 2019-02 Collection Note de l'Observatoire du Bien-être : 2019-03
118
vues

0
téléchargements
Ce travail propose pour la première fois d’étudier les clivages cachés du soutien aux Gilets jaunes à partir des données de l’enquêe du Baromètre de la confiance du CEVIPOF. Nous montrons que le soutien au mouvement entérine l’ effacement de l’axe droite-gauche traditionnel. Les Gilets jaunes réunissent des personnes dont les taux de satisfaction dans la vie sont très faibles, indépendamment de leur accord sur les moyens d’y répondre. Ce sont majoritairement d’anciens éecteurs de Marine Le Pen, de Jean-Luc Mélenchon ou des abstentionnistes (dans cet ordre). Ils partagent une critique plus radicale de l’Etat et du gouvernement que l’un et l’autre de ces électorats, tout en ayant des positions plus médianes sur des questions morales comme la tolérance a l’ égard des minorités. L’analyse de la géographie des ronds-points confirme le caractère original de ce mouvement. Le Nord-Est et le Sud-Ouest sont les points forts de la mobilisation, soit les deux régions ou Marine Le Pen et Jean-Luc Mélenchon ont fait leurs meilleurs scores en 2017

in JAMA Pediatrics Publié en 2019-02
VERGUNST Francis
TREMBLAY Richard E
NAGIN Daniel
PARK Jungwee
GALERA Cédric
VITARO Frank
CÔTÉ Sylvana
3
vues

0
téléchargements
Importance Identifying early childhood behavioral problems associated with economic success/failure is essential for the development of targeted interventions that enhance economic prosperity through improved educational attainment and social integration. Objective To test the association between kindergarten teacher–rated assessments of inattention, hyperactivity, opposition, aggression, and prosociality in boys with their employment earnings at age 35 to 36 years as measured by government tax return data. Design, Setting, and Participants A 30-year prospective follow-up study analyzing low socioeconomic neighborhoods in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Boys aged 5 to 6 years attending kindergarten in low socioeconomic neighborhoods were recruited. Teacher-rated behavioral assessments were obtained for 1040 boys. Data were collected from April 1984 to December 2015. Analysis began January 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures Mixed-effects linear regression models were used to examine the association between teacher ratings of inattention, hyperactivity, opposition, aggression, and prosociality at age 6 years and individual earnings obtained from government tax returns at age 35 to 36 years. The IQ of the child and family adversity were adjusted for in the analysis. Results Complete data were available for 920 study participants (mean age at follow-up was 36.3 years). Mean (SD) personal earnings at follow-up were $28 865.53 ($24 103.45) (range, $0-$142 267.84). A 1-unit increase in inattention (mean [SD], 2.66 [2.34]; range, 0-8) at age 6 years was associated with decrease in earnings at age 35 to 36 years of $1295.13 (95% CI, −$2051.65 to −$538.62), while a unit increase in prosociality (mean [SD], 8.0 [4.96]; range, 0-20) was associated with an increase in earnings of $406.15 (95% CI, $172.54-$639.77). Hyperactivity, opposition, and aggression were not significantly associated with earnings. Child IQ was associated with higher earnings and family adversity with lower earnings in all models. A 1-SD reduction in inattention at age 6 years was associated with a theoretical increase in annual earnings of $3040.41, a similar magnitude to an equivalent increase in IQ. Conclusions and Relevance Teacher ratings of inattention and prosociality in kindergarten boys from low socioeconomic neighborhoods are associated with earnings in adulthood after adjustment for hyperactivity, aggression, and opposition, which were not associated with earnings. Interventions beginning in kindergarten that target boys’ inattention and enhance prosociality could positively impact workforce integration and earnings.

in PLos ONE Publié en 2019-01
MURTIN Fabrice
HIGAD Kazuhito
SENIK Claudia
4
vues

0
téléchargements
We build models to estimate well-being in the United States based on changes in the volume of internet searches for different words, obtained from the Google Trends website. The estimated well-being series are weighted combinations of word groups that are endogenously identified to fit the weekly subjective well-being measures collected by Gallup Analytics for the United States or the biannual measures for the 50 states. Our approach combines theoretical underpinnings and statistical analysis, and the model we construct successfully estimates the out-of-sample evolution of most subjective well-being measures at a one-year horizon. Our analysis suggests that internet search data can be a complement to traditional survey data to measure and analyze the well-being of a population at high frequency and local geographic levels. We highlight some factors that are important for well-being, as we find that internet searches associated with job search, civic participation, and healthy habits consistently predict well-being across several models, datasets and use cases during the period studied.

We examine the dislocation from the traditional left-right political axis in the 2017 French election, analyze support for populist movements and show that subjective variables are key to understanding it. Votes on the traditional left-right axis are correlated to ideology concerning redistribution, and predicted by socio-economic variables such as income and social status. Votes on the new diagonal opposing “open vs closed society” are predicted by individual and subjective variables. More specifically, low well-being predicts anti-system opinions (from the left or from the right) while low interpersonal trust (ITP) predicts right-wing populism.

Giving communities power over school management and spending decisions has been a favored strategy to increase school quality, but its effectiveness may be limited by weak capacity and low authority. We examine the short-term responses of a grant to school committees in a context such a context and find that overall, parents increased participation and responsibility, but these efforts did not improve quality. Enrollment at the lowest grades increased and school resources improved, but teacher absenteeism increased, and there was no impact on test scores. We examine heterogeneous impacts, and provide a model of school quality explaining the results and other results in the literature. The findings of this paper imply that strategies to improve quality by empowering parents should take levels of community authority and capacity into account: even when communities are willing to work to improve their schools, they may not be able to do so.

Publié en 2015
GUYOT Florian
HIGAD Kazuhito
MURTIN Fabrice
SENIK Claudia
34
vues

34
téléchargements
We build an indicator of individual wellbeing in the United States based on Google Trends. The indicator is a combination of keyword groups that are endogenously identified to fit with weekly timeseries of subjective wellbeing measures collected by Gallup Analytics surveys. We show that such information from Big Data can be used to build a model that accurately forecasts survey-based measures of subjective well-being. The model successfully predicts the out-of-sample evolution of most subjective well-being measures at a one-year horizon. This opens up the possibility to use Big Data as a complement to traditional survey data to measure and analyze the well-being of population at high frequency and very local geographic level. We show that we can also exploit the internet search volume to elicit the main life dimensions related to well-being. We find that keywords associated with job search, financial security, family life and leisure are the strongest predictors of the variations in subjective well-being in the United States. This paper contributes to the new research agenda on data sciences by showing how Big Data can improve our understanding of the foundations of human well-being.

204
vues

204
téléchargements
Les apports de l'économie comportementale permettent de concevoir de nouvelles formes d'action publique et d'augmenter l'efficacité des recommandations habituelles. Nous discutons ici de l'utilité de ces approches pour traiter la toxicomanie. Ces modèles reposent sur les biais cognitifs intervenant dans la prise de décision pour aider les gens à éviter de commettre des erreurs. Des exemples de ces stratégies consistent à modifier la présentation de l'information, à transformer les incitations, et à offrir des possibilités de pré-engagement. Il est essentiel de tester rigoureusement ces différentes stratégies avant de les mettre en pratique et les gouvernements devraient envisager une utilisation systématique de l'économie comportementale dans l'élaboration des politiques publiques.

Suivant