Co-auteur
  • MARIN Giovanni (12)
  • CONSOLI Davide (10)
  • RAITANO Michele (9)
  • NESTA Lionel (7)
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Type de Document
  • Working paper (23)
  • Article (22)
  • Contribution à un site web (5)
  • Partie ou chapitre de livre (1)
Publié en 2020 Collection OFCE working paper : 23/2020
DUSSAUX Damien
DECHEZLEPRÊTRE Antoine
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Concerns about carbon offshoring, namely the relocation of dirty tasks abroad, undermine the efficiency of domestic carbon mitigation policies and might prevent governments from adopting more ambitious climate policies. This paper is the first to analyse the extent and determinants of carbon offshoring at the firm level. We combine information on carbon emissions, imports, imported emissions and environmental policy stringency based on a unique dataset of 5,000 French manufacturing firms observed from 1997 to 2014. We estimate the impact of imported emissions on firm’s domestic emissions and emission intensity using a shift-share instrumental variable strategy. We do not find compelling evidence of an impact of carbon offshoring on total emissions, but show that emission efficiency improves in companies offshoring emissions abroad, suggesting that offshored emissions are compensated by an increase in production scale. The effect is economically meaningful with a 10% increase in carbon offshoring causing a 4% decline in emission intensity. However, this effect is twice as small as that of domestic energy prices and, importantly, does not appear to be driven by a pollution haven motive.

Publié en 2020 Collection OFCE working paper : 22/2020
POPP David
MARIN Giovanni
CHEN Ziqiao
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We evaluate the employment effect of the green part of the largest fiscal stimulus in recent history, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Each $1 million of green ARRA created 15 new jobs that emerged especially in the post-ARRA period (2013-2017). We find little evidence of significant short-run employment gains. Green ARRA creates more jobs in commuting zones with a greater prevalence of pre-existing green skills. Nearly half of the jobs created by green ARRA investments were in construction or waste management. Nearly all new jobs created are manual labor positions. Nonetheless, manual labor wages did not increase.

We study green specialization across EU countries and detailed 4-digit industrial sectors over the period of 1995-2015 by harmonizing product-level data (PRODCOM). We propose a new list of green goods that refines lists proposed by international organizations by excluding goods with double usages. Our exploratory analysis reveals important structural properties of green specialization. First, green production is highly concentrated, with 13 out of 119 4-digit industries accounting for 95% of the total. Second, green and polluting productions do not occur in the same sectors, and countries tend to specialize in either green or brown sectors. This suggests that the distributional effect of European environmental policies can be large. Third, green specialization is highlypath dependent, but it is also reinforced by the presence of non-green capabilities within the same sector. This helps explain why economies with better engineering and technical capabilities have built a comparative advantage in green production.

in Environmental and Resource Economics Publié en 2020
CHEN Ziqiao
MARIN Giovanni
POPP David
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As nations struggle to restart their economy after COVID-19 lockdowns, calls to include green investments in a pandemic-related stimulus are growing. Yet little research provides evidence of the effectiveness of a green stimulus. We begin by summarizing recent research on the effectiveness of the green portion of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on employment growth. Green investments are most effective in communities whose workers have the appropriate “green” skills. We then provide new evidence on the skills requirements of both green and brown occupations, as well as from occupations at risk of job losses due to COVID-19, to illustrate which workers are most likely to benefit from a pandemic-related green stimulus. We find similarities between some energy sector workers and green jobs, but a poor match between green jobs and occupations at risk due to COVID-19. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence on the potential for job training programs to help ease the transition to a green economy.

in Journal of Environmental Economics and Management Publié en 2019-11
MARIN Giovanni
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The political acceptability of climate policies is undermined by job-killing arguments, especially for the least-skilled workers. However, evidence of the distributional impacts for different workers remains scant. We examine the associations between climate policies, proxied by energy prices, and workforce skills for 14 European countries and 15 industrial sectors over the period 1995–2011. Using a shift-share instrumental variable estimator and controlling for the influence of automation and globalization, we find that climate policies have been skill biased against manual workers and have favoured technicians. The long-term change in energy prices accounted for between 9.2% and 17.5% (resp. 4.2% and 8.0%) of the increase (resp. decrease) in the share of technicians (resp. manual workers).

This blog post is partly based on the policy paper published in the journal Climate Policy: ‘Job Losses and the Political Acceptability of Climate Policies: why the job killing argument is so persistent and how to overturn it.’ Concerns for a ‘just transition’ towards a low-carbon economy are now part of mainstream political debates as well as of international negotiations on climate change. Key political concerns centre on the distributional impacts of climate policies. On the one hand, the ‘job killing’ argument has been repeatedly used to undermine the political acceptability of climate policy and to ensure generous exemptions to polluting industries in most countries. On the other hand, the rising populist parties point to carbon taxes as another enhancer of socio-economic inequalities. For instance, the Gilets Jaunes (Yellow vest) movement in France is a classic example of the perceived tension between social justice and environmental sustainability.

in Journal of Economic Geography Publié en 2019-09
MARIN Giovanni
CONSOLI Davide
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This paper explores the nature and the key empirical regularities of green employment in US local labor markets in 2006–2014. The main methodological novelty consists of a new measure of green employment based on the task content of occupations. Descriptive analysis reveals that green employment is pro-cyclical, highly skilled, commands a 4% wage premium and is geographically concentrated. Green employment dynamics positively correlates with local green subsidies within the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, local green knowledge, and resilience to the great recession. Finally, we find that one additional green job is associated with 4.2 (2.2 in the crisis period) new local jobs in non-tradable non-green activities.

Depuis 20 ans, l’Italie apparaît prisonnière d’une faible croissance, d’un endettement élevé et de faiblesses structurelles, exacerbées par la Grande récession de 2008. Ainsi, en 2018, le PIB par habitant en volume, corrigé des parités de pouvoir d’achat, atteint le même niveau qu’en 1999 (graphique 1). L’Italie est désormais devancée par l’Espagne ; elle est également le seul des quatre grands pays de la zone euro qui n’a pas retrouvé son niveau d’avant-crise. Dans un Policy brief intitulé « Italie : sortir du double piège de l’endettement élevé et de la faible croissance », après avoir étudié l’historique de l’endettement public, nous tentons de cerner les causes de la stagnation italienne, qui s’illustre également par la baisse de la productivité globale des facteurs (graphique 2). Le graphique 2 montre que cette productivité globale des facteurs en Italie a connu une baisse cumulée de 7,9 % au cours des 20 dernières années. Ceci contraste avec les gains d’efficacité enregistrés en France et en Allemagne, où la productivité a augmenté respectivement de 4,1 % et 7,9 %.

Avec une dette publique s'élevant à 132,1 % du PIB et une croissance négative de la productivité au cours des vingt dernières années, l'Italie semble prise au piège d'un endettement élevé et d'une faible croissance. Nous nous concentrons sur les facteurs à l'origine de ces deux fléaux en Italie, et examinons de quelle façon ils sont intimement liés : une croissance atone limite les marges de manœuvre budgétaires et sème le doute sur la viabilité de la dette publique ; la réduction de l'espace budgétaire et les règles budgétaires strictes pèsent à leur tour sur la croissance et les investissements publics. Dans la première partie, nous discutons des racines de l'explosion de la dette publique italienne, des tentatives de consolidation budgétaire du pays dans les années 1990 et au début des années 2000, et enfin des effets de la grande récession et de l'austérité budgétaire. Dans la deuxième partie, nous identifions les faiblesses structurelles de l'économie italienne. Nous soulignons notamment le biais de spécialisation vers les secteurs à faible technologie, le « nanisme » des entreprises italiennes, la mauvaise allocation des talents et des ressources, la fracture Nord-Sud et ses conséquences sur le marché du travail. Nous concluons par quelques recommandations politiques pour une relance de la croissance en Italie. Notre première proposition plaide pour des politiques industrielles favorisant l'accumulation des connaissances et l'apprentissage. La deuxième proposition prévoit une nouvelle règle d'or budgétaire européenne qui exclurait certains investissements publics spécifiques du calcul du solde primaire structurel. Notre troisième proposition porte sur la réglementation du marché du travail et préconise l'introduction d'un salaire minimum d'une part, et la facilitation des politiques de reconversion professionnelle d'autre part. Notre quatrième proposition souligne la nécessité de parachever l'Union bancaire et de résoudre le problème des prêts non performants afin d'améliorer la solidité du secteur bancaire italien. Enfin, nous concluons que le sort de l'Italie est inextricablement lié à celui de l'Europe et que l'Italie a besoin de davantage d'Europe pour échapper à son endettement élevé et à son faible taux de croissance.

Publié en 2019-05 Collection Working paper de l'OFCE : 08/2019
CONSOLI Davide
MARIN Giovanni
RENTOCCHINI Francesco
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This study contributes to the literature on routinization and employment by capturing within- occupation task changes over the period 1980-2010. The main contribution is the measurement of such changes combining two data sources on occupational task content for the United States: the Dictionary of Occupational Titles and the Occupational Information Network. We show that within-occupation task change: i) accounts for 1/3 of the decline in routine-task use; ii) accelerates in the 1990s, decelerates in the 2000s but with significant catching-up; iii) is associated with educational upgrading in several dimensions and iv) allows escaping the employment decline conditional on initial routine-task intensity.

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