Coauthor
  • BLOT Christophe (67)
  • HUBERT Paul (59)
  • LABONDANCE Fabien (32)
  • LE CACHEUX Jacques (32)
  • Show more
Document Type
  • Article (113)
  • Part or chapter of a book (47)
  • Working paper (42)
  • Web site contribution (18)
  • Show more
11
views

0
downloads
ECB’s asset purchase programmes have been implemented at different times in different economic environments and may pursue different objectives. From the point of view of removing financial fragmentation and taming sovereign stress in the euro area, the PEPP has been successful so far. Moreover, this outcome was obtained without fully using its potential resources. To date and contingent on the available set of information, the current monetary stance has not gone too far and it retains some ammunitions. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON).

in OFCE Policy Brief Publication date 2020-06-18
HOLZNER Mario
WATT Andrew
WITTWER Jérôme
7
views

0
downloads
■The Recovery Fund recently proposed by the EU Commission marks a sea-change in European integration. Yet it will not be enough to meet the challenges Europe faces. There has been much public debate about financing, but little about the sort of concrete projects that the EU should be putting public money into.■Here we propose a 10-year, €2tn investment programme focusing on public health, transport infrastructure and energy/decarbonisation. ■It consists of two pillars. In a national pillar Member States — broadly as in theCommission proposal — would be allocated €500bn. Resources should be focused on the hardest-hit countries and front-loaded: we suggest over a three-year horizon.■The bulk of the money —€1.5tn — would be devoted to finance genuinely European projects, where there is an EU value added. We describe a series of flagship initiatives that the EU could launch in the fields of public health, transport infrastructure and energy/decarbonisation. ■We call for a strengthened EU public health agency that invests in health-staff skillsand then facilitates their flexible deployment in emergencies, and is tasked withensuring supplies of vital medicines (Health4EU). ■We present costed proposals for two ambitious transport initiatives: a dedicated European high-speed rail network, the Ultra-Rapid-Train, with four-routes cuttingtravel times between EU capitals and regions, and, alternatively, an integrated European Silk Road initiative that combines transport modes on the Chinese model. ■In the area of energy/decarbonisation we seek to “electrify” the Green Deal. We call for funding to accelerate the realisation of a smart and integrated electricity gridfor 100%-renewable energy transmission (e-highway), support for complementary battery and green-hydrogen projects, and a programme, modelled on the SURE initiative, to co-finance member-state decarbonisation and Just Transition policies.■The crisis induced by the pandemic, coming as it does on top of the financial and euro crises, poses a huge challenge. The response needs to take account of the longer-run structural challenges, and above all that of climate change. The European Union should rise to these challenges in the reform of an ambitious medium-runrecovery programme, appropriately financed. An outline of such a programme isset out here by way of illustration, but many permutations and options are available to policymakers.

in OFCE Policy Brief Publication date 2020-06-08
2
views

0
downloads
Au-delà de la stabilité des prix, les traités de l’Union européenne attribuent à la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) une série d’objectifs secondaires qui lui permettent, dans certaines limites, d’élargir le spectre de ses interventions. Se pose cependant la question de la capacité de la BCE à poursuivre effectivement ces objectifs secondaires tout en respectant son mandat initial. Nous étudions le lien existant entre la stabilité des prix et ces objectifs en vue d’établir si ces derniers sont indépendants, complémentaires ou substituables, ce qui est déterminant pour préciser la définition du mandat. Selon notre analyse, la BCE ne dispose pas d’une marge de manœuvre suffisante pour atteindre les autres objectifs dans le cadre de son mandat actuel. Nous proposons donc d’élargir le mandat afin d’y intégrer l’emploi et la stabilité financière et de renforcer la coordination avec les États membres de la zone euro pour favoriser la satisfaction de ces objectifs.

in OFCE Policy Brief Publication date 2020-06-08
0
views

0
downloads
In a statement announcing the review of its monetary policy strategy, the Euro-pean Central Bank (ECB) stated that it will, in addition to price stability, also take into account how “other considerations, such as financial stability, employment and environmental sustainability, can be relevant in pursuing the ECB's mandate”. The key question is which precise objectives shall be taken into account and how the ECB might reach them, keeping in mind that some trade-offs vis-à-vis the primary objective may arise. [First paragraph]

Le Fonds de relance récemment proposé par la Commission européenne marque un changement radical dans l’intégration européenne. Mais cela ne suffira pas pour relever les défis auxquels l’Europe est confrontée. Le financement a fait l’objet de nombreux débats, mais peu de choses ont été dites sur le type de projets concrets auxquels l’UE devrait consacrer le Fonds de relance. Nous proposons dans le Policy Brief OFCE, n° 72, un programme d’investissement de 2 000 milliards d’euros sur dix ans, axé sur la santé publique, les infrastructures de transport et l’énergie/décarbonisation. [Premier paragraphe]

Publication date 2020-06 Collection Monetary Dialogue Papers
0
views

0
downloads
Beyond price stability, the EU Treaties assign to the ECB a range of secondary objectives. We investigate the linkages between price stability and these objectives to assess whether they are independent, complementary or substitutable, which is important to refine the definition of the mandate. Keeping the current mandate would not provide leeway for the ECB to reach other objectives. We propose to broaden the mandate to include employment and financial stability. Enhanced coordination should contribute to fulfilling the objectives. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Publication date 2020-06 Collection OFCE working paper : 20/2020
EL HERRADI Mehdi
4
views

0
downloads
This paper examines the distributional implications of monetary policy, either standard, non-standard or both, on income inequality in 10 Euro Area countries over the period 2000-2015. We use three different indicators of income inequality in a Panel VAR setting in order to estimate IRFs of inequality to a monetary policy shock. The identification of monetary shocks follows a one-step procedure and relies only on country-specific determinants of income distribution. Results suggest that: (i) the distributional effects of ECB’s monetary policy have been modest and (ii) mainly driven in times of conventional monetary policy measures, especially in countries with a high level of market inequalities, while, overall, (iii) standard and non-standard monetary policies do not significantly differ in terms of impact on income inequality. Results are robust to alternative data sources either for income distribution or for non-standard monetary policies.

Publication date 2020-05 Collection OFCE working paper : 17/2020
5
views

0
downloads
Numerical simulations of fiscal space in the euro area, based on 12 different situations, point to the large uncertainty surrounding the capacity of Member States to pay back their public debts. Debt sustainability appears to depend crucially on long-term nominal interest rate being lower than nominal growth for a long period. Only in this case do major European countries experience some additional fiscal space. Although the analytics behind this exercise is common knowledge among macroeconomists, it gives an order of the magnitude of fiscal space in the euro area and it confirms that interactions between the ECB and governments are key to escape the public finances consequences of an exogenous global shock like Covid-19.

in L’économie européenne 2020 Edited by Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques Publication date 2020-03
0
views

0
downloads
2020 est la première année pleine de Mesdames Christine Lagarde et Ursula von der Leyen au sommet de l’Europe, la première à la tête de la Banque centrale européenne et la seconde à celle de la Commission européenne, dans un environnement européen et international compliqué. Depuis le pic de croissance de 2017, l’activité économique en Europe a donné de sérieux signes d’essoufflement. Dans un contexte marqué par l’incertitude politique — notamment quant à l’évolution des tensions commerciales avec les États-Unis et à l’organisation effective du Brexit — et par la perspective de la fin du cycle d’expansion américain se pose désormais la question des marges de manœuvre européennes pour mener des politiques économiques plus expansionnistes. [Premier paragraphe]

This paper presents empirical evidence of asymmetric fiscal policy along the business cycle, using a real-time panel data on 19 OECD countries. We estimate various specifications of fiscal policy rules, in which ex ante fiscal policy has two major objectives: macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal consolidation. First, we find that a symmetric fiscal policy rule may not be an accurate representation of real-time fiscal policy. We find evidence in favor of asymmetric fiscal policy, in particular regarding the response to output gap. Second, fiscal policy appears to be generally procyclical in downturns and a-cyclical in upturns, typically in the Euro Area and during the crisis. Third, we do not find significant evidence of a procyclical fiscal consolidation in the OECD and the Euro Area, although surplus-debt feedback coefficients are generally larger in downturns. Our results are robust to an alternative measure of business cycle and to country exclusion.

Next