Coauthor
  • ROVENTINI Andrea (32)
  • GAFFARD Jean-Luc (15)
  • DOSI Giovanni (13)
  • GUERINI Mattia (13)
  • Show more
Document Type
  • Working paper (31)
  • Article (24)
  • Part or chapter of a book (3)
  • Web site contribution (3)
  • Show more
Publication date 2014-11
DOSI Giovanni
FAGIOLO Giorgio
TREIBICH Tania
2
views

2
downloads
In this work we analyze the short- and long-run effects of fiscal austerity policies, employing an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous, boundedly-rational firms and banks. The model, in line with the family of “Keynes+Schumpeter” formalism, is able to account for a wide array of macro and micro empirical regularities. In particular, it endogenously generates self-sustained growth patterns together with persistent economic fluctuations punctuated by deep downturns. On the policy side, we find that austerity policies considerably harm the economy, by increasing output volatility, unemployment, and the incidence of crises. In addition, they depress innovation and the diffusion of new technologies, thus reducing long-run productivity and GDP growth. Finally, we show that “discipline-guided” fiscal rules are self-defeating, as they do not stabilize public finances, but, on the contrary, they disrupt them.

Publication date 2012-02
DOSI Giovanni
FAGIOLO Giorgio
ROVENTINI Andrea
2
views

0
downloads
This work studies the interactions between income distribution and monetary and fiscal policies in terms of ensuing dynamics of macro variables (GDP growth, unemployment etc.) on the grounds of an agent-based Keynesian model. The direct ancestor of this work is the "Keynes meeting Schumpeter" formalism presented in Dosi et al. (2010). To that model, we add a banking sector and a monetary authority setting interest rates and credit lending conditions. The model combines Keynesian mechanisms of demand generation, a "Schumpeterian" innovation-fueled process of growth and Minskian credit dynamics. The robustness of the model is checked against its capability to jointly account for a large set of empirical regularities both at the micro level and at the macro one. The model is able to catch salient features underlying the current as well as previous recessions, the impact of financial factors and the role in them of income distribution. We found that different income distribution regimes heavily a affect macroeconomic performance: more unequal economies are exposed to more severe business cycles fuctuations, higher unemployment rates, and higher probability of crises. On the policy side, fiscal policies do not only dampen business cycles, reduce unemployment and the likelihood of experiencing a huge crisis. In some circumstances they also affect positively long-term growth. Further, the more income distribution is skewed toward profits, the greater the effects of fiscal policies. About monetary policy, we find a strong non-linearity in the way interest rates affect macroeconomic dynamics: in one "regime" with low rates, changes in interest rates are ineffective up to a threshold beyond which increasing the interest rate implies smaller output growth rates and larger output, volatility, unemployment and likelihood of crises.

Publication date 2009-03
VITALI Stefania
FAGIOLO Giorgio
0
views

0
downloads
This paper employs a homogenous firms database to investigate industry localization in European countries. More specifically, we compare, across industries and countries, the predictions of two of the most popular localization indices, i.e., the Ellison and Glaeser index (Ellison and Glaeser, 1997) and the Duranton and Overman index (Duranton and Overman, 2005). We find that, independently from the index used, localization is a pervasive phenomenon in all countries studied, but the degree of localization is very uneven across industries in each country. Furthermore, we find that the two indices significantly diverge in predicting the intensity of the forces generating localization within each industry. Finally, we perform a crosssectoral analysis of localized industries. We show that, in all countries, localized sectors are mainly “traditional” sectors (like jewelery, wine, and textiles) and sectors where scale economies are important. However, once one controls for countries’ industrial structures science-based sectors turn out to be the most localized ones.

in Economics the open access open assessment E-journal Publication date 2017-12
3
views

0
downloads
The authors build a simple agent-based model populated by households with heterogenous and time-varying financial conditions in order to study how fiscal multipliers can change over the business cycle and are affected by the state of credit markets. They find that deficit-spending fiscal policy dampens the effect of bankruptcy shocks and lowers their persistence. Moreover, the size and dynamics of government spending multipliers are related to the degree and persistence of credit rationing in the economy. On the contrary, in presence of balanced-budget rules, output permanently falls below pre-shock levels and the ensuing multipliers fall below one and are much lower than the ones emerging from the deficit-spending policy. Finally, the authors show that different conditions in the credit market significantly affect the size and the evolution of fiscal multipliers

In this work, we employ an agent-based integrated assessment model to study the likelihood of transition to green, sustainable growth in presence of climate damages. The model comprises heterogeneous fossil-fuel and renewable plants, capital- and consumption-good firms and a climate box linking greenhouse gasses emission to temperature dynamics and microeconomic climate shocks affecting labour productivity and energy demand of firms. Simulation results show that the economy possesses two statistical equilibria: a carbon-intensive lock-in and a sustainable growth path characterized by better macroeconomic performances. Once climate damages are accounted for, the likelihood of a green transition depends on the damage function employed. In particular, aggregate and quadratic damage functions overlook the impact of climate change on the transition to sustainability; to the contrary, more realistic micro-level damages are found to deeply influence the chances of a transition. Finally, we run a series of policy experiments on carbon (fossil fuel) taxes and green subsidies. We find that the effectiveness of such marketbased instruments depends on the different channels climate change affects the economy through, and complementary policies might be required to avoid carbon-intensive lock-ins.

We develop an agent-based model in which heterogeneous firms and households interact in labor and good markets according to centralized or decentralized search and matching protocols. As the model has a deterministic backbone and a full-employment equilibrium, it can be directly compared to Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. We study the effects of negative productivity shocks by way of impulse-response func- tions (IRF). Simulation results show that when search and matching are centralized, the economy is always able to return to the full employment equilibrium and IRFs are similar to those generated by DSGE models. However, when search and matching are local, co- ordination failures emerge and the economy persistently deviates from full employment. Moreover, agents display persistent heterogeneity. Our results suggest that macroeco- nomic models should explicitly account for agents’ heterogeneity and direct interactions

in Macroeconomic Dynamics Publication date 2018-08
GUERINI Mattia
MONETA Alessio
1
views

0
downloads
In this paper, we investigate the causal effects of public and private debts on US output dynamics. We estimate a battery of Cointegrated Structural Vector Autoregressive models, and we identify structural shocks by employing Independent Component Analysis, a data-driven technique which avoids ad-hoc identification choices. The econometric results suggest that the impact of debt on economic activity is Janus-faced. Public debt shocks have positive and persistent influence on economic activity. In contrast, rising private debt has a milder positive impact on gross domestic product, but it fades out over time. The analysis of the possible transmission mechanisms reveals that public debt crowds in private consumption and investment. In contrast, mortgage debt fuels consumption and output in the short-run, but shrinks them in the medium-run.

Nous analysons la convergence des systèmes industriels de l'Union européenne (UE) et la comparons à la synchronisation des cycles industriels. L'article présente d'abord plusieurs indicateurs de performance économique pour les sept économies majeures de l'UE : l'Allemagne, l'Autriche, l'Espagne, la France, l'Italie, les Pays-Bas et le Royaume-Uni. Ces indicateurs mettent en exergue une hétérogénéité prononcée. D’un côté, l’Autriche, l’Allemagne et les Pays-Bas sont apparemment « guéris » de la Grande Récession. De l’autre, l’Espagne et l’Italie présentent toujours des symptômes inquiétants avec de faibles gains de productivité du travail et un PIB qui n’a pas encore recouvré son niveau d’avant-crise. L'économie française se situe entre ces deux groupes. En utilisant des méthodologies statistiques récentes permettant de quantifier la similarité des structures productives des pays, nous examinons ensuite la question de la convergence – ou de la divergence – des pays de l'UE. Conformément aux indicateurs de performance industrielles de base, nous trouvons une fracture Nord/Sud qui s'affirme au cours du temps. Ces résultats corroborent les prévisions de Krugman (1993), selon lesquelles l’un des effets de l’initiative européenne est d'accroître la spécialisation régionale et d'augmenter les divergences de croissance entre pays. En fait, tout se passe comme si la réduction des coûts de transaction dans l'UE accentuait la concentration de l'activité industrielle hautement spécialisée en Allemagne, au détriment de ses voisins européens. En outre, en raison de l’inclusion des économies d'Europe de l'Est et du groupe des pays de Višegrad, l’économie allemande a réussi à externaliser les activités industrielles peu qualifiées, accentuant ce faisant son rôle déjà central dans l’ensemble de la chaîne de valeur européenne. Certes, ceci a généré la fracture Nord/Sud européenne. Toutefois, les effets positifs sont observables en termes de plus grande intégration économique de l’ancien bloc de l’Est, qui est maintenant bien synchrone avec l’économie allemande. Nous affirmons que cette hétérogénéité des tendances économiques et des schémas de spécialisation, couplée avec l'absence de synchronisation entre les principaux pays de l’UE, représentent un défi majeur en termes de politiques macroéconomiques. Les réformes institutionnelles, fiscales et monétaires doivent être conçues de manière à atteindre des niveaux plus élevés de coordination et d’intégration, afin de recouvrer un processus de convergence nécessaire à la stabilité économique de l'UE

2
views

0
downloads
L’étude empirique comparative montre que la composition de l’ investissemet compte bien davantage que son niveau global. C’est moins le tauxd ’investissement que la nature des investissements effectués et leur degré de complémentarité qui affectent naturellement la performance des entreprises et de l’économie.

Publication date 2012-03-15
GAFFARD Jean-Luc
BABUTSIDZE Zakaria
1
views

0
downloads
Are current economic models well equipped to provide useful policy prescriptions? Many economists would have certainly answered, “yes” before the recent Global Recession. This economic crisis has not only demonstrated the importance of banking and financial markets for the dynamics of real economies. It has also revealed the inadequacy of the dominant theoretical framework. Standard models have indeed failed to forecast the advent of the crisis. In addition, they have been unable to indicate a therapy able to restore economic growth (...).

Next