Co-auteur
  • ROVENTINI Andrea (35)
  • GAFFARD Jean-Luc (16)
  • DOSI Giovanni (15)
  • GUERINI Mattia (13)
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  • Working paper (31)
  • Article (29)
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Publié en 2019-11
GUERINI Mattia
THI LUU Duc
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We propose a novel approach to investigate the synchronization of business cycles and we apply it to a Eurostat database of manufacturing industrial production time-series in the European Union (EU) over the 2000-2017 period. Our approach exploits Random Matrix Theory and extracts the latent information contained in a balanced panel data by cleaning it from possible spurious correlation. We employ this method to study the synchronization among different countries over time. Our empirical exercise tracks the evolution of the European synchronization patterns and identifies the emergence of synchronization clusters among different EU economies. We find that synchronization in the Euro Area increased during the first decade of the century and that it reached a peak during the Great Recession period. It then decreased in the aftermath of the crisis, reverting to the levels observable at the beginning of the 21st century. Second, we show that the asynchronous business cycle dynamics at the beginning of the century was structured along a East-West axis, with eastern European countries having a diverging business cycle dynamics with respect to their western partners. The recession brought about a structural transformation of business cycles co-movements in Europe. Nowadays the divide can be identified along the North vs. South axis. This recent surge in asynchronization might be harmful for the European Unio because it implies countries’ heterogeneous responses to common policies.

Publié en 2019-07 Collection OFCE Working paper : 14
POPOYAN Lilit
ROVENTINI Andrea
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We develop a macroeconomic agent-based model to study how financial instability can emerge from the co-evolution of interbank and credit markets and the policy responses to mitigate its impact on the real economy. The model is populated by heterogenous firms, consumers, and banks that locally interact in dfferent markets. In particular, banks provide credit to firms according to a Basel II or III macro-prudential frameworks and manage their liquidity in the interbank market. The Central Bank performs monetary policy according to dfferent types of Taylor rules. We find that the model endogenously generates market freezes in the interbank market which interact with the financial accelerator possibly leading to firm bankruptcies, banking crises and the emergence of deep downturns. This requires the timely intervention of the Central Bank as a liquidity lender of last resort. Moreover, we find that the joint adoption of a three mandate Taylor rule tackling credit growth and the Basel III macro-prudential frame-work is the best policy mix to stabilize financial and real economic dynamics. However, as the Liquidity Coverage Ratio spurs financial instability by increasing the pro-cyclicality of banks’ liquid reserves, a new counter-cyclical liquidity buffer should be added to Basel III to improve its performance further. Finally, we find that the Central Bank can also dampen financial in- stability by employing a new unconventional monetarypolicy tool involving active management of the interest-rate corridor in the interbank market.

Avec une dette publique s'élevant à 132,1 % du PIB et une croissance négative de la productivité au cours des vingt dernières années, l'Italie semble prise au piège d'un endettement élevé et d'une faible croissance. Nous nous concentrons sur les facteurs à l'origine de ces deux fléaux en Italie, et examinons de quelle façon ils sont intimement liés : une croissance atone limite les marges de manœuvre budgétaires et sème le doute sur la viabilité de la dette publique ; la réduction de l'espace budgétaire et les règles budgétaires strictes pèsent à leur tour sur la croissance et les investissements publics. Dans la première partie, nous discutons des racines de l'explosion de la dette publique italienne, des tentatives de consolidation budgétaire du pays dans les années 1990 et au début des années 2000, et enfin des effets de la grande récession et de l'austérité budgétaire. Dans la deuxième partie, nous identifions les faiblesses structurelles de l'économie italienne. Nous soulignons notamment le biais de spécialisation vers les secteurs à faible technologie, le « nanisme » des entreprises italiennes, la mauvaise allocation des talents et des ressources, la fracture Nord-Sud et ses conséquences sur le marché du travail. Nous concluons par quelques recommandations politiques pour une relance de la croissance en Italie. Notre première proposition plaide pour des politiques industrielles favorisant l'accumulation des connaissances et l'apprentissage. La deuxième proposition prévoit une nouvelle règle d'or budgétaire européenne qui exclurait certains investissements publics spécifiques du calcul du solde primaire structurel. Notre troisième proposition porte sur la réglementation du marché du travail et préconise l'introduction d'un salaire minimum d'une part, et la facilitation des politiques de reconversion professionnelle d'autre part. Notre quatrième proposition souligne la nécessité de parachever l'Union bancaire et de résoudre le problème des prêts non performants afin d'améliorer la solidité du secteur bancaire italien. Enfin, nous concluons que le sort de l'Italie est inextricablement lié à celui de l'Europe et que l'Italie a besoin de davantage d'Europe pour échapper à son endettement élevé et à son faible taux de croissance.

Depuis 20 ans, l’Italie apparaît prisonnière d’une faible croissance, d’un endettement élevé et de faiblesses structurelles, exacerbées par la Grande récession de 2008. Ainsi, en 2018, le PIB par habitant en volume, corrigé des parités de pouvoir d’achat, atteint le même niveau qu’en 1999 (graphique 1). L’Italie est désormais devancée par l’Espagne ; elle est également le seul des quatre grands pays de la zone euro qui n’a pas retrouvé son niveau d’avant-crise. Dans un Policy brief intitulé « Italie : sortir du double piège de l’endettement élevé et de la faible croissance », après avoir étudié l’historique de l’endettement public, nous tentons de cerner les causes de la stagnation italienne, qui s’illustre également par la baisse de la productivité globale des facteurs (graphique 2). Le graphique 2 montre que cette productivité globale des facteurs en Italie a connu une baisse cumulée de 7,9 % au cours des 20 dernières années. Ceci contraste avec les gains d’efficacité enregistrés en France et en Allemagne, où la productivité a augmenté respectivement de 4,1 % et 7,9 %.

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With public debt amounting to 132.1% of GDP and negative productivity growth over the last twenty years, Italy appears to be stuck in a high-debt and low-growth trap. We focus on the causes of Italy's two main economic plights and discuss how they are intimately related: a slow growth limits the budgetary margins and casts doubts on public debt sustainability; the reduced fiscal space and the tight fiscal rules in turn weighs on growth and public investment. In the first part, we discuss the roots of the explosion of Italian public debt, the country's consolidation attempts in the 1990s and early 2000s and finally, the effects of the Great Recession and fiscal austerity. In the second part, we identify the structural weaknesses of the Italian economy. We notably emphasize the specialization bias towards low tech sectors, the “nanism” of Italian firms, the misallocation of talents and resources, the North-South divide and its related labor market consequences. We conclude with some policy recommendations for a revival of growth in Italy. Our first proposal calls for industrial policies which foster knowledge accumulation and firm learning. The second proposal envisages a new European fiscal golden rule which would remove specific public investments from the computation of structural primary balance. Our third proposal is instead related to labor market regulation, and advocates for the introduction of a minimum wage on the one hand, and the facilitation of retraining policies on the other hand. Our fourth proposal highlights the need to complete the banking union and to solve the issue of non-performing loans in order to improve the robustness of the Italian banking sector. Lastly, we conclude that Italy's fate is inextricably related to Europe's and that Italy needs more rather than less Europe to escape its high-debt and low-growth trap

Publié en 2019-05 Collection Working paper de l'OFCE : 07/2019
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With its public debt amounting to 132.1% of GDP and its negative productivity growth over the last twenty years, Italy appears to be the sick man of the European Union. In this Policy brief, we focus on its two main plights: high public debt burden on the one hand, sluggish GDP and productivity growth on the other hand. Both issues are intimately related: a slow growth limits the budgetary margins and casts doubts on public debt sustainability; the reduced fiscal space in turn weighs on growth and public investment. The first part is dedicated to describing the history and causes of Italian public debt. A first phase, from the 1960s to the 1980s, was characterized by a positive but moderate growth of debt. A second phase saw the explosion of public debt, from 54% of GDP in 1980 to roughly 117% in 1994. The budget law of the Amato's government in 1992 initiated a third phase, marked by a significant fiscal consolidation effort, and the decrease of the public debt to GDP ratio. The Great Recession interrupted this consolidation era and a last phase began from 2008 on, when the public debt-to-GDP ratio consequently increased. In the second part, we review some of the structural weaknesses of the Italian economy. We notably emphasize the specialization bias towards low tech sectors, the “nanism” of Italian firms, the misallocation of talents and resources, the North-South divide and its related labor market consequences. We conclude with four policy recommendations for a revival of growth in Italy. Our first proposal is technical and proposes a new European fiscal golden rule which would remove specific public investments from the computation of structural primary balance. Our second and third proposals are related to the regulation of the labor market, with the introduction of a minimum wage on the one hand, and the facilitation of retraining policies on the other hand. Last, we call for a revival of industrial policies in order to foster knowledge accumulation and firm learning. Our view is that Italy's fate is inextricably related to Europe's and that Italy needs more rather than less Europe.

in Journal of Evolutionary Economics Publié en 2019-03
DOSI Giovanni
ROVENTINI Andrea
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In this work we study the granular origins of business cycles and their possible underlying drivers. As shown by Gabaix (Econometrica 79:733–772, 2011), the skewed nature of firm size distributions implies that idiosyncratic (and independent) firm-level shocks may account for a significant portion of aggregate volatility. Yet, we question the original view grounded on “supply granularity”, as proxied by productivity growth shocks – in line with the Real Business Cycle framework–, and we provide empirical evidence of a “demand granularity”, based on investment growth shocks instead. The role of demand in explaining aggregate fluctuations is further corroborated by means of a macroeconomic Agent-Based Model of the “Schumpeter meeting Keynes” family Dosi et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 52:166–189, 2015). Indeed, the investigation of the possible microfoundation of RBC has led us to the identification of a sort of microfounded Keynesian multiplier.

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The paper compares the effects of market-based (M-B) and command-and-control (C&C) climate policies on the direction of technical change and the prevention of environmental disasters. Drawing on a model of endogenous growth and directed technical change, we show that M-B policies (carbon taxes and subsidies toward clean sectors) suffer from path dependence and exhibit bounded window of opportunities: delays in their implementation make them ineffective both in redirecting technical change, (i.e. triggering a transition toward clean energy) and in avoiding environmental catastrophes. On the contrary, we find that C&C interventions are favored by path dependence and guarantee policy effectiveness irrespectively of the timing of their introduction. As the hypothesis of path dependence in technological change has received vast empirical support and it is a key feature of many models of growth, we argue that C&C policies should be seen as a valuable and non-equivalent alternative to M-B interventions.

in Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Publié en 2019-01
GUERCI Eric
HANAKI Nobuyuki
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WEHIA (Workshop on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents) has celebrated its 20th anniversary in 2015 by promoting the adoption of a complex evolving system paradigm in economics. See, among others, Hommes (2013) and Kirman (2011) for recent surveys of such an approach in economics. It has also encouraged critical debates about the usefulness and the scientific achievements of this approach for the analysis of economic and social issues. [First paragraph]

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