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in Etudes du CERI Sous la direction de Centre de recherches internationales Publié en 2021-02-03
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2020 a été une année singulière dans le monde entier, mais en Russie et au Bélarus, deux régimes autocratiques qui se heurtaient à des difficultés bien avant la pandémie de Covid-19, elle a été celle de bouleversements saisissants.

Publié en 2020-12 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2020-08
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This paper studies discrimination in financial markets in the context of the “Dreyfus Affair” in 19th century France. We analyze the market performance of firms with Jewish board members during this historical episode. Building on empirical evidence and a model with antisemitic and unbiased agents, we show how investors betting on firms with Jewish connections earned higher returns during the media campaign organized to rehabilitate Dreyfus, the unfairly accused Jewish officer at the center of the Affair. Our paper provides novel evidence that discrimination can affect stock prices and create rents for some market participants. While these rents may attract betting against discriminators, the uncertainty surrounding discriminatory beliefs can limit the extent of arbitrage and allow discrimination to survive in the long run.

Publié en 2020-12 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2020-11
DAGORRET Anna
GROSJEAN Pauline
JHA Saumitra
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Can heroes legitimize strongly-proscribed and repugnant political behaviors? We exploit the purposefully arbitrary rotation of French regiments to measure the legitimizing effects of heroic credentials. 53% of French line regiments happened to rotate under a specific general, Philippe Pétain, during the pivotal WWI battle of Verdun (1916). Using recently declassified intelligence data on 95,314 individuals, we find the home municipalities of regiments serving under Pétain at Verdun raised 7% more Nazi collaborators during the Pétain led Vichy regime (1940-44). The effects are similar across joining Fascist parties, German forces, paramilitaries that hunted Jews and the Resistance, and collaborating economically. These municipalities also increasingly vote for right-wing parties between the wars. The voting effects persist after WWII, becoming particularly salient during social crises. We argue these results reflect the complementary role of the heroes of Verdun in legitimizing and diffusing the authoritarian values of their former leader.

Publié en 2020-12 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2020-07
BEKKOUCHE Yasmine
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What is the impact of campaign spending on votes? Does it vary across election types, political parties or electoral settings? Estimating these effects requires comprehensive data on spending across candidates, parties and elections, as well as identification strategies that handle the endogenous and strategic nature of campaign spending in multiparty systems. This paper provides novel contributions in both of these areas. We build a new comprehensive dataset of all French legislative and UK general elections over the 1993-2017 period. We propose new empirical specifications, including a new instrument that relies on the fact that candidates are differentially affected by regulation on the source of funding on which they depend the most. We find that an increase in spending per voter consistently improves candidates’ vote share, both at British and French elections, and that the effect is heterogeneous depending on candidates’ party. In particular, we show that spending by radical and extreme parties has much lower returns than spending by mainstream parties, and that this can be partly explained by the social stigma attached to extreme voting. Our findings help reconcile the conflicting results of the existing literature, and improve our understanding of why campaigns matter.

Publié en 2020-12 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2020-12
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This paper proposes a new determinant of labor share changes. Using micro-data on the universe of French manufacturing exporters over 1995-2007, I show that a measure of export demand growth exogenous to firm- level outcomes drives down the manufacturing labor share through two effects. First, foreign demand shocks allow low-labor share, highly internationalized “superstar” exporters to grow disproportionately more. Second, foreign demand growth decreases the labor share of exporters and this effect is stronger for larger exporters. Both effects explain 12% of the labor share decline over 1995-2000 and led to a 1.2 percentage point drop over 2000-2007. A simple model of endogenous competition with heterogeneous firms rationalizes the findings. A market size increase allows exporters to expand, which decreases their share of fixed labor cost in value-added, and increases competition on international markets. Fiercer competition favors superstar exporters, further decreasing their labor share through the fixed cost channel. Overall, these findings provide direct causal evidence of a “winner take most” phenomenon induced by trade globalization.

in Cogito. Le magazine de la recherche Publié en 2020-11-16
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Traditionnellement, l’économie du travail postule que les salaires sont déterminés par l’offre et la demande. Selon cette théorie, à demande constante, l’émigration doit se traduire par une augmentation des salaires dans les pays d’origine (diminution de l’offre de main-d’œuvre). Elle doit aussi entraîner une diminution des salaires dans les pays d’accueil (augmentation de l’offre de main-d’œuvre). Une vision malthusienne de l’économie part également du principe que l’arrivée de main d’œuvre sur un marché de l’emploi contraint laisse certains travailleurs sans emploi ou chasse de leur emploi ceux qui en avaient un. L’opinion selon laquelle l’immigration fait diminuer les salaires des autochtones et génère du chômage est largement répandue. Cependant une théorie concurrente suggère que les immigrants, consommant dans leur pays de destination, donnent lieu à une augmentation de la demande locale, et/ou que la production locale se développe grâce à cette main-d’œuvre supplémentaire. Pour départager ces approches, on peut examiner ce que nous disent les données empiriques sur ce qui se passe à des échelles locales.

in Le monde d'aujourd'hui Sous la direction de LAZAR Marc, PLANTIN Guillaume, RAGOT Xavier Publié en 2020-10
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Ce chapitre repose sur une contribution collective de l’équipe impliquée dans la conception et l’analyse de l’enquête Faire face au Covid-19 (CoCo) (OSC, CDSP). Il en expose les premiers résultats. Comment la société a-t-elle pu faire face à ce contexte brutal et inédit qu’est le confinement ? Quels ont été les déterminants les plus décisifs ayant modulé l’expérience quotidienne du confinement et quels furent les accélérateurs ou les amortisseurs de la pression sociale et économique qu’il a déclenchée? Faire face a-t-il induit des transformations profondes de notre système social ou plutôt donné lieu à des ajustements locaux, de faible ampleur et réversibles à moyen ou long terme ? Le dispositif empirique permet de décrire et parfois d'évaluer de manière quasi-expérimentale les transformations qui se sont produites avec le confinement et en particulier les changements dans les pratiques sociales concrètes (vie familiale, travail, relations sociales, éducation, loisirs, etc.), dans des indicateurs subjectifs de bien-être, dans des indicateurs de santé physique ainsi que dans les attitudes politiques et les valeurs.

in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) Publié en 2020-10
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Humans care about morality. Yet, they often engage in actions that contradict their moral self. Unethical amnesia is observed when people do not remember or remember less vividly these actions. This paper explores two reasons why individuals may experience unethical amnesia. Forgetting past unethical behavior may be motivated by purely hedonic or affective reasons, such as the willingness to maintain one’s moral self-image, but also by instrumental or strategic motives, in anticipation of future misbehavior. In a large-scale incentivized online experiment (n = 1,322) using a variant of a mind game, we find that hedonic considerations are not sufficient to motivate the forgetting of past cheating behavior. This is confirmed in a follow-up experiment (n = 1,005) in which recalls are elicited the same day instead of 3 wk apart. However, when unethical amnesia can serve as a justification for a future action, such as deciding on whether to keep undeserved money, motivated forgetting is more likely. Thereby, we show that motivated forgetting occurs as a self-excuse to justify future immoral decisions.

Dès le déclenchement de ce « fait social total » que fut la pandémie de Covid-19, la communauté scientifique de Sciences Po s'est lancée dans des analyses collectives et interdisciplinaires pour tenter de comprendre sa signification. Sidérant, impensable, incompréhensible, un événement-monde comme la pandémie de Covid-19, au moment où il se produit, prend autant de sens différents que d'acteurs chargés de le gérer et d'en parler : responsables politiques, scientifiques, médecins, médias, réseaux sociaux… Dans cette cacophonie interprétative, les sciences sociales sont d’une grande utilité. Dès le déclenchement de ce « fait social total », la communauté scientifique de Sciences Po s’est lancée dans des analyses collectives et interdisciplinaires pour tenter de comprendre sa signification. Il n’est pas seulement nécessaire d’éclairer les aspects éruptifs et disruptifs de telles crises, mais aussi de saisir ce qu’elles révèlent de nos sociétés et ce qu’elles leur font, alors que nous devons apprendre à exister avec le coronavirus, peut-être pour longtemps.

Panel data covering the French population before and after the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic reveal that self-reported health and well-being have improved during the lockdown in comparison to previous years. We name this counterintuitive phenomenon the “eye of the hurricane” paradox: the large majority of individuals who are not infected by the virus may be seeing their current condition in a more positive light than they normally would. There are, however, divergences across social groups that reflect socioeconomic inequalities. In particular, blue-collar workers deviate from the prevailing trend as their level of self-reported health declines over the lockdown period, Parisian residents experience a sudden drop in their subjective well-being, and people working long hours at home exhibit higher levels of stress during the quarantine.

Publié en 2020-07 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2020-09
HJORT Jonas
IYER Vinayak
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Evidence suggests that firms in poor countries stagnate because they cannot access growth-conducive markets. We hypothesize that overlooked heterogeneity in marketing ability distorts market access. To investigate, we gave a random subset of Liberian firms vouchers for a week-long program that teaches how to sell to corporations, governments, and other large buyers. Firms that participate win about three times as many contracts, but only firms with access to the Internet benefit. We use a simple model and variation in online and offline demand to show evidence that this is because ICT dampens traditional information frictions, but not marketing barriers.

This working paper offers an overview of the first stage of the Coping with Covid (CoCo) project, which tracks the behaviors and attitudes of a representative panel of the French metropolitan population during the COVID-19 lockdown. We conducted five survey waves and administered daily journals of open-ended responses between April and June 2020 among a sample of 1,216 people from a pre-existing panel (ELIPSS). Earlier surveys of this sample allowed us to better contextualize changes that may have occurred during this unusual period. We outline four experiential dimensions during the lockdown period: relation to work, everyday activities and time use, self-assessed health and well-being, and the framing of the pandemic crisis. What we found follows traditional inequality patterns and also reveals some unexpected changes in social practices and attitudes.

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Les financements de groupements de chercheurs travaillant sur une thématique commune viennent dans beaucoup de pays compléter les financements individuels. Nous évaluons dans ce papier les effets d’un programme de ce type, le financement des Laboratoires d’Excellence (LabEx), en comparant les projets financés à ceux non financés et en se restreignant à ceux ayant reçu une note similaire des évaluateurs. Nous montrons que (i) l’effet principal du financement est de transformer radicalement la structure des collaborations en augmentant le nombre de co-publications entre membres du Labex de plus de 30% ; (ii) l’effet sur la productivité des chercheurs impliqués est positive mais relativement faible ; (iii) ceux qui n’étaient pas au cœur de la thématique initialement bénéficient significativement plus du financement et renforcent le plus leurs collaborations au sein du LabEx ; (iv) le programme LabEx semble moins promouvoir l’excellence que réduire les inégalités au sein des communautés sélectionnées.

Jusqu’à quel point le Covid-19 perturbe-t-il notre vie de tous les jours ? Comment la population française vit-elle le confinement ? Dans quelles mesures les inégalités sociales sont-elles exacerbées et la cohésion sociale menacée ? Le projet CoCo apporte des éléments de réponse à ces questions d’actualité en comparant les conditions de vie en France avant et après le confinement. Il s’agit du quatrième d’une série de rapports préliminaires couvrant maintenant l’ensemble de la période de confinement. La vie pendant le confinement a-t-elle été une parenthèse ou une forme de nouvelle normalité ? Au-delà du fait de savoir si les gens ont repris leurs activités traditionnelles après le 11 mai, ce rapport s’intéresse aux conséquences de l’expérience du confinement sur les attitudes et les opinions. Le confinement a-t-il accéléré des tendances sous-jacentes ou a-t-il permis l’émergence de nouvelles orientations sociales et politiques ?

How disruptive is Covid-19 to everyday life? How is the French population experiencing the lockdown? Is it magnifying inequalities and affecting social cohesion? The CoCo project sheds lights on these pressing questions by comparing living conditions in France before, during, and after the lockdown. This is the fourth of a series of research briefs, which now cover the entire lockdown period Has life under the lockdown been a parenthesis or is it the new normal? Beyond whether or not people began to resume their usual activities on 11 May, the consequences of the lockdown experience on people’s attitudes and opinions are the core of this policy brief. Did the lockdown trigger new sociopolitical orientations? Or did it instead accelerate ongoing trends?

Publié en 2020-06 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2020-06
ZHURAVSKAYA Ekaterina
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Using an online randomized experiment in the context of the 2019 European elections campaign in France, we study how fact-checking affects sharing of false news on social media. We exposed over 4200 voting-age French to statements on the role of the EU made by the extreme right populist party Rassemblement National. A randomly selected subgroup of experiment participants was also presented with fact-checking of these statements; another subgroup was offered a choice whether to view the fact-checking or not. Then, all participants could choose whether to share the false statements on their Facebook pages. We show that: (i) both imposed and voluntary fact-checking reduced sharing of false statements by more than 25%; (ii) the size of the effect was similar between imposed and voluntary fact-checking; and (iii) each additional click required to share false statements reduced sharing by 75%.

How disruptive is Covid-19 to everyday life? How is the French population experiencing the lockdown? Is it magnifying inequalities and affecting social cohesion? The CoCo project sheds lights on these pressing questions by comparing living conditions in France before, during, and after the lockdown. This is the third of a series of research briefs. We explore how French society has coped with the first 6 weeks of the lockdown, particularly as regards the transformation of working conditions and social life. We also continue to monitor self-reported health and well-being.

in The Quarterly journal of economics Sous la direction de HARVARD UNIVERSITY Publié en 2020-05
BAZZI Samuel
KOEHLER-DERRICK Gabriel
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Why do religious politics thrive in some societies but not others? This paper explores the institutional foundations of this process in Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim democracy. We show that a major Islamic institution, the waqf, fostered the entrenchment of political Islam at a critical historical juncture. In the early 1960s, rural elites transferred large amounts of land into waqf —a type of inalienable charitable trust—to avoid expropriation by the government as part of a major land reform effort. Although the land reform was later undone, the waqf properties remained. We show that greater intensity of the planned reform led to more prevalent waqf land and Islamic institutions endowed as such, including religious schools, which are strongholds of the Islamist movement. We identify lasting effects of the reform on electoral support for Islamist parties, preferences for religious candidates, and the adoption of Islamic legal regulations (sharia). Overall, the land reform contributed to the resilience and eventual rise of political Islam by helping to spread religious institutions, thereby solidifying the alliance between local elites and Islamist groups. These findings shed new light on how religious institutions may shape politics in modern democracies.

Jusqu’à quel point le Covid-19 perturbe-t-il notre vie de tous les jours ? Comment la population française vit-elle le confinement ? Dans quelles mesures les inégalités sociales sont-elles exacerbées et la cohésion sociale menacée ? Le projet CoCo apporte des éléments de réponse à ces questions d’actualité en comparant les conditions de vie en France avant et après le blocage. Il s’agit du deuxième rapport préliminaire de la série que nous publierons dans les prochaines semaines. Nous analysons ici la façon dont la société française a fait face à ce premier mois de confinement, notamment en ce qui concerne les préoccupations sur l’état de l’économie, la santé et le bien-être autodéclarés, et enfin l’enseignement à la maison.

Publié en 2020-05 Collection NBER Working Paper Series : 27073
BAZZI Samuel
HILMY Masyhur
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Public schooling systems are an essential feature of modern states. These systems often developed at the expense of religious schools, which undertook the bulk of education historically and still cater to large student populations worldwide. This paper examines how Indonesia’s longstanding Islamic school system responded to the construction of 61,000 public elementary schools in the mid-1970s. The policy was designed in part to foster nation building and to curb religious influence in society. We are the first to study the market response to these ideological objectives. Using novel data on Islamic school construction and curriculum, we identify both short-run effects on exposed cohorts as well as dynamic, long-run effects on education markets. While primary enrollment shifted towards state schools, religious education increased on net as Islamic secondary schools absorbed the increased demand for continued education. The Islamic sector not only entered new markets to compete with the state but also increased religious curriculum at newly created schools. Our results suggest that the Islamic sector response increased religiosity at the expense of a secular national identity. Overall, this ideological competition in education undermined the nation-building impacts of mass schooling.

How disruptive is COVID-19 to everyday life? How is the French population experiencing the lockdown? Is it magnifying inequalities and affecting social cohesion? The CoCo project sheds light on these pressing questions by comparing living conditions in France before, during, and after the lockdown. This is the second of a series of research briefs that we will publish in the forthcoming weeks. In this brief, we explore how French society has coped with the first month of the lockdown, particularly with the economy, self-reported health and well-being, and homeschooling.

Jusqu’à quel point le Covid-19 perturbe-t-il notre vie de tous les jours ? Comment la population française vit-elle le confinement ? Dans quelles mesures les inégalités sociales sont-elles exacerbées et la cohésion sociale menacée ? Le projet CoCo apporte des éléments de réponse à ces questions d’actualité en comparant les conditions de vie en France avant et après le blocage. Il s’agit du troisième rapport préliminaire de la série que nous publierons dans les prochaines semaines. Nous analysons ici la façon dont la société française a fait face aux 6 premières semaines de confinement, notamment en ce qui concerne les changements de conditions de travail et de vie sociale. Nous continuons à surveiller les éléments de santé et de bien-être autodéclarés comme dans les 2 précédents numéros.

Publié en 2020-04 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2020-04
ALVIAREZ Vanessa
HEAD Keith
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We assess the consequences for consumers in 76 countries of multinational acquisitions in beer and spirits. Outcomes depend on how changes in ownership affect markups versus efficiency. We find that owner fixed effects contribute very little to the performance of brands. On average, foreign ownership tends to raise costs and lower appeal. Using the estimated model, we simulate the consequences of counterfactual national merger regulation. The US beer price index would have been 4–7% higher without divestitures. Up to 30% savings could have been obtained in Latin America by emulating the pro-competition policies of the US and EU.

Publié en 2020-04 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2020-05
HERVELIN Jérémy
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In France, two years after school completion and getting the same diploma, the employment rate of apprentices is about 15 percentage points higher than that of vocational students. Despite this difference, this paper shows that there is almost no difference between the probability of getting a callback from employers for unemployed youth formerly either apprentices or vocational students. This result indicates that the higher employment rate of apprentices does not rely, in the French context, on better job access of those who do not remain in their training firms. The estimation of a job search and matching model shows that the expansion of apprenticeship has very limited effects on youth unemployment if this is not accompanied by an increase in the retention of apprentices in their training firm.

How disruptive is Covid-19 to everyday life? How is the French population experiencing the lockdown? Is it magnifying existing inequalities and affecting social cohesion? The CoCo project sheds light on these pressing questions by comparing living conditions in France before and after the lockdown. This is the first of a series of research briefs that we will publish in the forthcoming weeks. We will explore this new experience of “sheltering-in-place” and its impact on family life, schooling, work, health and well-being. This brief explores how French society has coped with the first two weeks of the lockdown. We find that the virus has rapidly become a tangible threat, as more than forty percent of the population knows someone who has been infected. Despite this, three out of four persons say that they do not feel overly stressed out. In certain cases, the reaction has been almost philosophical -- long hours spent at home allow people to slow down and think about the meaning of life. More than anything else, it is having access to green spaces and nature which provides some relief to those attempting to cope with this home-based social organization. Still, some cracks have appeared. Women, foreign-born residents, and individuals facing financial hardship are subject to greater emotional strain than the rest of the population. Gender inequalities have been particularly reinforced during the lockdown: women have been spending even more time than usual cleaning and taking care of others. Although the Covid-19 virus tends to disproportionately strike men, the consequences of the lockdown more intenselyaffect women.

Jusqu’à quel point le Covid-19 perturbe-t-il notre vie de tous les jours ? Comment la population française vit-elle le confinement ? Dans quelles mesures les inégalités sociales sont-elles exacerbées et la cohésion sociale menacée ? Le projet CoCo apporte des éléments de réponse à ces questions d’actualité en comparant les conditions de vie en France avant et après le blocage. Il s’agit ici du premier d’une série de rapports préliminaires que nous publierons dans les prochaines semaines. Nous étudierons l’impact de cette nouvelle expérience du confinement à domicile sur la vie familiale, la scolarité, le travail, la santé et le bien-être. Ce rapport est consacré à la manière dont la population française a fait face aux deux premières semaines de confinement. Nous constatons que le virus est devenu rapidement une menace tangible : environ quatre personnes sur dix connaissent quelqu’un qui a été infecté. Malgré cela, les trois quarts de la population; française déclarent ne pas se sentir trop stressés. Dans certains cas, cette expérience est vécue avec philosophie : les longues heures passées à la maison permettent de ralentir le rythme et de réfléchir au sens de la vie. Plus que tout, c’est l’accès à la nature et aux espaces verts qui soulage ceux qui tentent de s’adapter à une organisation sociale désormais centrée sur le domicile. Pourtant, des fissures transparaissent. Les femmes, les personnes nées à l’étranger et les individus confrontés à des difficultés financières sont soumis à des tensions émotionnelles plus fortes que le reste de la population. Les inégalités entre les sexes ont été renforcées pendant le confinement : les femmes consacrent encore plus de temps à nettoyer et à prendre soin des autres. Bien que le Covid-19 ait tendance à frapper davantage les hommes, les conséquences du confinement affectent plus intensément les femmes.

Publié en 2020-02 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2020-03
ANGELUCCI Charles
SINKINSON Michael
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News media operate in two-sided markets, offering bundles of content to readers as well as selling readers' attention to advertisers. Technological innovations in content delivery, such as the advent of broadcast television or of the Internet, affect both sides of the market, threatening the basic economic model of print news operations. We examine how the entry of television affected local newspapers as well as consumer media diets in the United States. We develop a model of print media and show that entry of national television news could adversely affect the provision of local news. We construct a novel dataset of U.S. newspapers' economic performance and content choices from 1944 to 1964. Our empirical strategy exploits quasi-random variation in the timing of the entry of television in different markets. We show that the entry of television was a negative shock for newspapers, particularly evening newspapers, in both the readership and advertising markets. Further, we find a drop in the total quantity of news printed, in particular original reporting, raising concerns about the provision of local news.

Publié en 2020-01 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2020-01
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This paper shows that a firm’s objectives can extend beyond profit maximization. I use data from a for-profit firm offering charity auctions of celebrities belongings whose donations affect both revenues and costs. Comparing actual donations with the profit-maximizing benchmark indicates that the firm donates in excess of profitmaximization. I provide additional evidence pointing to donations as a further objective of the firm. Also, donations do not substantially increase willingness to pay, indicating that demand cannot explain expenditures in CSR. My results shed light on the functioning of benefit corporations and open questions on the competitive conduct of non-profit maximizing companies.

Publié en 2020-01 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2019-17
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Using a nationally representative longitudinal survey of lawyers in the U.S., we document a sizeable gap between men and women in their early aspirations to become law firm partners, despite similar early investments and educational characteristics. This aspiration gap can explain a large part of the gender promotion gap that is observed later. We propose a model to understand the role of aspirations and then empirically test its predictions. We show that aspirations create incentives to exert effort and are correlated with expectations of success and the preference for becoming a partner. We further show that aspirations are affected by early work experiences—facing harassment or demeaning comments early in the career affects long-term promotion outcomes mediated via aspirations. Our research highlights the importance of accounting for, and managing, career aspirations as an early intervention to close gender career gaps.

This policy brief discusses how voters respond to public policies with a particular focus on crime control policies. We present the main methodological issues that the researcher faces to disentangle the response of voters to the consequences of policies from the other factors. We present the results of a study of the consequences of the 2006 Italian collective pardon. Using randomness in local variation in recidivism rates we show that Italian voters held the incumbent government responsible for local variations in recidivism caused by the collective pardon. We conclude by discussing the consequences for the evaluation of the electoral response to public policies.

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