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How disruptive is Covid-19 to everyday life? How is the French population experiencing the lockdown? Is it magnifying inequalities and affecting social cohesion? The CoCo project sheds lights on these pressing questions by comparing living conditions in France before, during, and after the lockdown. This is the third of a series of research briefs. We explore how French society has coped with the first 6 weeks of the lockdown, particularly as regards the transformation of working conditions and social life. We also continue to monitor self-reported health and well-being.

Jusqu’à quel point le Covid-19 perturbe-t-il notre vie de tous les jours ? Comment la population française vit-elle le confinement ? Dans quelles mesures les inégalités sociales sont-elles exacerbées et la cohésion sociale menacée ? Le projet CoCo apporte des éléments de réponse à ces questions d’actualité en comparant les conditions de vie en France avant et après le blocage. Il s’agit du deuxième rapport préliminaire de la série que nous publierons dans les prochaines semaines. Nous analysons ici la façon dont la société française a fait face à ce premier mois de confinement, notamment en ce qui concerne les préoccupations sur l’état de l’économie, la santé et le bien-être autodéclarés, et enfin l’enseignement à la maison.

Jusqu’à quel point le Covid-19 perturbe-t-il notre vie de tous les jours ? Comment la population française vit-elle le confinement ? Dans quelles mesures les inégalités sociales sont-elles exacerbées et la cohésion sociale menacée ? Le projet CoCo apporte des éléments de réponse à ces questions d’actualité en comparant les conditions de vie en France avant et après le blocage. Il s’agit du troisième rapport préliminaire de la série que nous publierons dans les prochaines semaines. Nous analysons ici la façon dont la société française a fait face aux 6 premières semaines de confinement, notamment en ce qui concerne les changements de conditions de travail et de vie sociale. Nous continuons à surveiller les éléments de santé et de bien-être autodéclarés comme dans les 2 précédents numéros.

How disruptive is COVID-19 to everyday life? How is the French population experiencing the lockdown? Is it magnifying inequalities and affecting social cohesion? The CoCo project sheds light on these pressing questions by comparing living conditions in France before, during, and after the lockdown. This is the second of a series of research briefs that we will publish in the forthcoming weeks. In this brief, we explore how French society has coped with the first month of the lockdown, particularly with the economy, self-reported health and well-being, and homeschooling.

How disruptive is Covid-19 to everyday life? How is the French population experiencing the lockdown? Is it magnifying existing inequalities and affecting social cohesion? The CoCo project sheds light on these pressing questions by comparing living conditions in France before and after the lockdown. This is the first of a series of research briefs that we will publish in the forthcoming weeks. We will explore this new experience of “sheltering-in-place” and its impact on family life, schooling, work, health and well-being. This brief explores how French society has coped with the first two weeks of the lockdown. We find that the virus has rapidly become a tangible threat, as more than forty percent of the population knows someone who has been infected. Despite this, three out of four persons say that they do not feel overly stressed out. In certain cases, the reaction has been almost philosophical -- long hours spent at home allow people to slow down and think about the meaning of life. More than anything else, it is having access to green spaces and nature which provides some relief to those attempting to cope with this home-based social organization. Still, some cracks have appeared. Women, foreign-born residents, and individuals facing financial hardship are subject to greater emotional strain than the rest of the population. Gender inequalities have been particularly reinforced during the lockdown: women have been spending even more time than usual cleaning and taking care of others. Although the Covid-19 virus tends to disproportionately strike men, the consequences of the lockdown more intenselyaffect women.

Jusqu’à quel point le Covid-19 perturbe-t-il notre vie de tous les jours ? Comment la population française vit-elle le confinement ? Dans quelles mesures les inégalités sociales sont-elles exacerbées et la cohésion sociale menacée ? Le projet CoCo apporte des éléments de réponse à ces questions d’actualité en comparant les conditions de vie en France avant et après le blocage. Il s’agit ici du premier d’une série de rapports préliminaires que nous publierons dans les prochaines semaines. Nous étudierons l’impact de cette nouvelle expérience du confinement à domicile sur la vie familiale, la scolarité, le travail, la santé et le bien-être. Ce rapport est consacré à la manière dont la population française a fait face aux deux premières semaines de confinement. Nous constatons que le virus est devenu rapidement une menace tangible : environ quatre personnes sur dix connaissent quelqu’un qui a été infecté. Malgré cela, les trois quarts de la population; française déclarent ne pas se sentir trop stressés. Dans certains cas, cette expérience est vécue avec philosophie : les longues heures passées à la maison permettent de ralentir le rythme et de réfléchir au sens de la vie. Plus que tout, c’est l’accès à la nature et aux espaces verts qui soulage ceux qui tentent de s’adapter à une organisation sociale désormais centrée sur le domicile. Pourtant, des fissures transparaissent. Les femmes, les personnes nées à l’étranger et les individus confrontés à des difficultés financières sont soumis à des tensions émotionnelles plus fortes que le reste de la population. Les inégalités entre les sexes ont été renforcées pendant le confinement : les femmes consacrent encore plus de temps à nettoyer et à prendre soin des autres. Bien que le Covid-19 ait tendance à frapper davantage les hommes, les conséquences du confinement affectent plus intensément les femmes.

Publié en 2020-02 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2020-03
ANGELUCCI Charles
SINKINSON Michael
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News media operate in two-sided markets, offering bundles of content to readers as well as selling readers' attention to advertisers. Technological innovations in content delivery, such as the advent of broadcast television or of the Internet, affect both sides of the market, threatening the basic economic model of print news operations. We examine how the entry of television affected local newspapers as well as consumer media diets in the United States. We develop a model of print media and show that entry of national television news could adversely affect the provision of local news. We construct a novel dataset of U.S. newspapers' economic performance and content choices from 1944 to 1964. Our empirical strategy exploits quasi-random variation in the timing of the entry of television in different markets. We show that the entry of television was a negative shock for newspapers, particularly evening newspapers, in both the readership and advertising markets. Further, we find a drop in the total quantity of news printed, in particular original reporting, raising concerns about the provision of local news.

in European Economic Review Publié en 2020-02
LOUIS-SIDOIS Charles
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We investigate the impact of compulsory military service on turnout and political preferences. Exploiting the suspension of mandatory conscription for French men, we observe a significant and positive impact of military service on turnout. We estimate that the service increases turnout by approximately 7 percentage points. We also investigate the impact of conscription on political preferences. When we control for selection into the military service, we observe no support for a change in preferences of former conscripts.

Publié en 2020-01 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2020-01
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This paper shows that a firm’s objectives can extend beyond profit maximization. I use data from a for-profit firm offering charity auctions of celebrities belongings whose donations affect both revenues and costs. Comparing actual donations with the profit-maximizing benchmark indicates that the firm donates in excess of profitmaximization. I provide additional evidence pointing to donations as a further objective of the firm. Also, donations do not substantially increase willingness to pay, indicating that demand cannot explain expenditures in CSR. My results shed light on the functioning of benefit corporations and open questions on the competitive conduct of non-profit maximizing companies.

Publié en 2020-01 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2019-17
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Using a nationally representative longitudinal survey of lawyers in the U.S., we document a sizeable gap between men and women in their early aspirations to become law firm partners, despite similar early investments and educational characteristics. This aspiration gap can explain a large part of the gender promotion gap that is observed later. We propose a model to understand the role of aspirations and then empirically test its predictions. We show that aspirations create incentives to exert effort and are correlated with expectations of success and the preference for becoming a partner. We further show that aspirations are affected by early work experiences—facing harassment or demeaning comments early in the career affects long-term promotion outcomes mediated via aspirations. Our research highlights the importance of accounting for, and managing, career aspirations as an early intervention to close gender career gaps.

This policy brief discusses how voters respond to public policies with a particular focus on crime control policies. We present the main methodological issues that the researcher faces to disentangle the response of voters to the consequences of policies from the other factors. We present the results of a study of the consequences of the 2006 Italian collective pardon. Using randomness in local variation in recidivism rates we show that Italian voters held the incumbent government responsible for local variations in recidivism caused by the collective pardon. We conclude by discussing the consequences for the evaluation of the electoral response to public policies.

in The Review of Economic Studies Publié en 2019-12
HERVÉ Nicolas
VIAUD Marie-Luce
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News production requires investment, and competitors’ ability to appropriate a story may reduce a media’s incentives to provide original content. Yet, there is little legal protection of intellectual property rights in online news production, which raises the issue of the extent of copying online and the incentives to provide original content. In this article, we build a unique dataset combining all the online content produced by French news media during the year 2013 with new micro audience data. We develop a topic detection algorithm that identifies each news event, trace the timeline of each story, and study news propagation. We provide new evidence on online news production. First, we document high reactivity of online media: one quarter of the news stories are reproduced online in under 4 min. We show that this is accompanied by substantial copying, both at the extensive and at the intensive margins, which may constitute a severe threat to the commercial viability of the news media. Next, we estimate the returns to originality in online news production. Using article-level variations and media-level daily audience combined with article-level social media statistics, we find that original content producers tend to receive more viewers, thereby mitigating the newsgathering incentive problem raised by copying.

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Cette thèse s’articule autour de deux thèmes : les normes sociales et les réseaux de production. Le premier chapitre porte sur une étude de cas où les normes sociales sont utilisées dans la lutte contre le discours haineux en ligne. A l’aide de méthodes de machine learning, je montre que le fait de dénoncer les opinions haineuses est un moyen de dissuader d'autres discours haineux. Cet effet s’explique par le fait que cette forme de contradiction sert de communiquer la présence d'une norme sociale ou en accentue l'importance. Au-delà de la lutte contre les discriminations, ce chapitre peut nous éclairer sur la façon dont les normes influencent le comportement politique plus généralement. Le deuxième chapitre porte sur le rôle que joue le goût pour l'image sociale pour expliquer l'effet des normes sociales sur le comportement. De nombreuses études montrent que ces goûts affectent le comportement des gens en moyenne, mais nous ne savons pas encore quels individus sont les plus susceptibles d’adapter leur comportement. Je présente une expérience novatrice conçue pour combler ce vide. Elle permet de calculer une mesure individuelle de préoccupation pour l'image, montre qu'il y a une hétérogénéité substantielle et analyse sa corrélation avec d'autres préférences sociales. Le dernier chapitre étudie les réseaux de production. L'intégration verticale des entreprises peut donner lieu à des comportements anticoncurrentiels. J'aborde l'un de ces comportements, appelé verrouillage, par lequel les entreprises verticalement intégrées coupent l'approvisionnement de leurs concurrents en intrants essentiels. J'utilise de nouvelles données sur les réseaux de production pour identifier les fusions et acquisitions entre entreprises verticalement liées. Je montre ces fusions affectent les chaînes d'approvisionnement de leurs concurrents et j’interprète cela comme preuve de verrouillage.

Publié en 2019-12 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2020-02
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This paper presents, solves, and estimates the first structural auction model with seller selection. This allows me to quantify network effects arising from endogenous bidder and seller entry into auction platforms, facilitating the estimation of theoretically ambiguous fee impacts by tracing them through the game. Relevant model primitives are identified from variation in second-highest bids and reserve prices. My estimator builds off the discrete choice literature to address the double nested fixed point characterization of the entry equilibrium. Using new wine auction data, I estimate that this platform’s revenues increase up to 60% when introducing a bidder discount and simultaneously increasing seller fees. More bidders enter when the platform is populated with lower-reserve setting sellers, driving up prices. Moreover, I show that meaningful antitrust damages can be estimated in a platform setting despite this two-sidedness.

Publié en 2019-11 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2019-16
BOSQUET Clément
COMBES Pierre-Philippe
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Using an instrument based on a national contest in France determining researchers’ location, we find evidence of peer effects in academia, when focusing on precise groups of senders (producing the spillovers) and receivers (benefiting from the spillovers), defined based on field of specialisation, gender and age. These peer effects are shown to exist even outside formal co-authorship relationships. Furthermore, the match between the characteristics of senders and receivers plays a critical role. In particular, men benefit a lot from peer effects provided by men, while all other types of gender combinations produce spillovers twice as small.

Publié en 2019-11 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2019-15
WANG Hongming
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Pay-for-performance is commonly employed to improve the quality of social services contracted out to firms. We show that insurer responses to pay-for-performance can widen the inequality in accessing social services. Focusing on the U.S. Medicare Advantage market, we find that high-quality insurance contracts responded to quality-linked payments by selecting healthier enrollees with premium differences across counties. The selection is profitable because the quality rating fails to adjust for pre-existing health differences of enrollees. As a result, quality improved mostly due to selection, and the supply of high-quality insurance shifted to the healthiest counties. Revising the quality rating could prevent these unintended consequences.

This paper investigates the impact of increased media competition on the quantity and quality of news provided and, ultimately, on political participation. I build a new county-level panel dataset of local newspaper presence, newspapers' number of journalists, costs and revenues and political turnout in France, from 1944 to 2014. I estimate the effect of newspaper entry by comparing counties that experience entry to similar counties in the same years that do not. Both sets of counties exhibit similar trends prior to entry, but those with entry experience substantial declines in the average number of journalists. An increased number of newspapers is also associated with fewer articles and less hard news provision. Newspaper entry, and the associated decline in information provision, is ultimately found to decrease voter turnout at local elections. Exploiting the long time span covered by my data, I discuss a number of mechanisms that may drive these empirical findings. First, I examine the relationship between increased competition and media capture in the aftermath of WW2, when newspapers were biased and the advertising market was underdeveloped. I then show that in the recent period the effects are stronger in counties with more homogeneous populations, as predicted by a vertical product differentiation framework, whereas there is little impact in counties with more heterogeneous populations.

Publié en 2019-10 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2019-14
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The increase in wealth-to-income ratios in the second half of XXth century has recently received much attention. We decompose the trend in physical capital and housing, further decomposed into structures and land. In four out of five major countries analyzed, the positive trend in capital-income ratio arises from housing and specifically from its land component. We therefore revisit the question of wealth inequality and taxation in adopting a Georgist perspective (from Henry George, 1879) subsequently endorsed by prominent economists. We introduce land and housing structures in Judd’s optimal taxation framework. We show that an optimal taxation implies a property tax on land and no tax on capital. When the range of property taxes is politically constrained, taxing the product of housing rents is not optimal, even with additional taxes on "imputed rents". Rent taxes are however less distortive than a capital tax. The distortion depends on the share of housing structures and how they react to the tax on rents. However, a tax on rents complemented by a subsidy on structures investments in rental housing units does almost as well as a land tax. As a side result, we find that Judd’s result of no second best capital taxation extends to a larger range of parameters at the steady-state.

in Social choice and welfare Publié en 2019-10
KOESSLER Frédéric
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In an environment with privately informed agents who can produce evidence, we study implementation of a social choice function by reading mechanisms: mechanisms that simply apply the social choice function to a consistent interpretation of the evidence. We provide sufficient conditions on the social choice function and the evidence structure for ex post implementability by such mechanisms. If the first-best policy of a mechanism designer satisfies this condition, then its implementation by a reading mechanism does not require commitment. We show that with rich evidence structures, (1) a function that is implementable with transfers is also implementable with evidence but no transfer, (2) under private value, the efficient allocation is implementable with budget balanced and individually rational transfers, and (3) in single-object auction and bilateral trade environments with interdependent values, the efficient allocation is implementable with budget balanced and individually rational transfers.

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The increase in wealth-to-income ratios in the second half of XXth century has recently received much attention. We decompose the trend in physical capital and housing, further decomposed into structures and land. In four out of five major countries analyzed, the positive trend in capital-income ratio arises from housing and specifically from its land component. We therefore revisit the question of wealth inequality and taxation in adopting a Georgist perspective (from Henry George, 1879) subsequently endorsed by prominent economists. We introduce land and housing structures in Judd’s optimal taxation framework. We show that an optimal taxation implies a property tax on land and no tax on capital. When the range of property taxes is politically constrained, taxing the product of housing rents is not optimal, even with additional taxes on "imputed rents". Rent taxes are however less distortive than a capital tax. The distortion depends on the share of housing structures and how they react to the tax on rents. However, a tax on rents complemented by a subsidy on structures investments in rental housing units does almost as well as a land tax. As a side result, we find that Judd’s result of no second best capital taxation extends to a larger range of parameters at the steady-state.

in American Economic Review Publié en 2019-09
HEAD Keith
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Following the 2016 Leave vote in the referendum on UK membership in the EU and the election of Donald Trump, trade agreements have entered a period of great instability. To predict the impact of possible disruptions to existing arrangements requires counterfactual analysis that takes into account the complex set of factors influencing the production and marketing strategies of multinational corporations. We estimate a model of multinational decision-making in the car industry. This model predicts the production reallocation and consumer surplus consequences of changes in tariffs and non-tariff barriers induced by US-led protectionism, Brexit, transpacific, and transatlantic integration agreements.

Publié en 2019-09 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2019-12
KOUTSOUGERAS Leonidas
SANTOS Manuel
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It is well known that in the presence of asymmetric information, adverse selection has detrimental effects on possible exchanges. We go a step further, and present a game-theoretic setup in which under such adverse selection effects there are uncertain benefits for bribing unknown players’ types (e.g., individuals, committees, or companies). A policy maker may then want to design indirect anti-corruption policies based on triggering failures for bribery attempts. In our stylized framework, we get a complete unraveling of bribes. This result can be extended to more complex environments under fairly mild conditions on players’ payoff functions.

in American Economic Journal: Microeconomics Publié en 2019-08
ANGELUCCI Charles
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Newspapers’ advertising revenues have declined sharply in recent decades. We build a model to investigate the consequences on newspapers’ content and prices of a reduction in advertisers’ willingness to pay. Newspapers choose the size of their newsroom, and readers are heterogeneous in the relative amount of journalistic-intensive content they prefer. We show that a reduction in advertising revenues lowers newspapers’ incentives to produce journalistic-intensive content, which affects the composition of their readership. We also build a unique dataset on French newspapers between 1960 and 1974 and perform a difference-in-differences analysis using a “quasi-natural experiment”: the introduction of advertising on television, which affected national newspapers more severely than local ones. We find robust evidence of a decrease in both the amount of journalistic-intensive content produced and the subscription price, which may help rationalize current industry trends. We also provide evidence that national newspapers’ readership became less educated and affluent following the change in prices and content.

in The Quarterly journal of economics Sous la direction de HARVARD UNIVERSITY Publié en 2019-08
BARJAMOVIC Gojko
COSAR Kerem
HORTACSU Ali
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We analyze a large data set of commercial records produced by Assyrian merchants in the nineteenth century BCE. Using the information from these records, we estimate a structural gravity model of long-distance trade in the Bronze Age. We use our structural gravity model to locate lost ancient cities. In many cases, our estimates confirm the conjectures of historians who follow different methodologies. In some instances, our estimates confirm one conjecture against others. We also structurally estimate ancient city sizes and offer evidence in support of the hypothesis that large cities tend to emerge at the intersections of natural transport routes, as dictated by topography. Finally, we document persistent patterns in the distribution of city sizes across four millennia, find a distance elasticity of trade in the Bronze Age close to modern estimates, and show suggestive evidence that the distribution of ancient city sizes, inferred from trade data, is well approximated by Zipf’s law.

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Le populisme est le produit de deux secousses telluriques. Premier séisme : la montée d’un immense ressentiment contre les partis et les institutions politiques. Face à l’échec de la droite et de la gauche à contenir les excès du capitalisme, la radicalité « anti-système » a brisé les compromis que l’un et l’autre camps étaient parvenus à édifier. Deuxième séisme : la fin de la société de classes, au profit d’une société d’individus pensant leur position sociale en termes subjectifs. Une nouvelle polarité en résulte, qui sépare les « confiants » des « méfiants » envers autrui. La droite populiste surgit au croisement d’une double méfiance – à l’égard des institutions politiques et à l’égard de la société. Elle prospère sur le désenchantement démocratique, tout en renouvelant le clivage gauche-droite. Fondé sur des données inédites, cet ouvrage se révèle essentiel pour comprendre le présent et l’avenir des sociétés démocratiques. Doyen de l’École d’affaires publiques, Yann Algan est professeur d’économie à Sciences Po. Économiste, Elizabeth Beasley est chercheuse à l'Observatoire du bien-être au CEPREMAP, et ancienne directrice de J-PAL France. Daniel Cohen est directeur du département d’économie de l’École normale supérieure et professeur à l’École d’économie de Paris. Directeur du CEVIPOF (CNRS), Martial Foucault est professeur des universités en science politique à Sciences Po.

in Journal of the European Economic Association Publié en 2019-08
DRAGO Francesco
SOBBRIO Francesco
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This study analyses voters' response to criminal justice policies by exploiting a natural experiment. The 2006 Italian Collective Pardon Bill, designed and promoted by the incumbent center-left (CL) coalition, unexpectedly released about one-third of the prison population, creating idiosyncratic incentives to recidivate across pardoned individuals. Municipalities where resident pardoned individuals had a higher incentive to recidivate experienced a higher recidivism rate. We show that in those municipalities voters "punished'' the CL coalition in the 2008 parliamentary elections. A one standard deviation increase in the incentive to recidivate-corresponding to an increase of recidivism of 15.9 percent-led to a 3.06 percent increase in the margin of victory of the center-right (CR) coalition in the post-pardon national elections (2008) relative to the last election before the pardon (2006). We also provide evidence of newspapers being more likely to report crime news involving pardoned individuals and of voters hardening their views on the incumbent national government's ability to control crime. Our findings indicate that voters keep politicians accountable by conditioning their vote on the observed effects of public policies.

Cette thèse étudie la manière dont l’hétérogénéité dans la production de biens publics locaux peut influencer la géographie de l’activité économique, en s’appuyant sur l’étude de deux mécanismes générant une telle hétérogénéité. Dans les deux premiers chapitres, le bien public local étudié est la connaissance technologique. Cette approche trouve sa source dans une vaste littérature montrant que les flux de connaissance sont sujets à un important biais spatial. Le premier chapitre étudie les dynamiques de formation des liens entre innovateurs, et leurs conséquences sur l’effet agrégé de la distance sur les flux de connaissance. L’analyse montre que les innovateurs trouvent des nouvelles sources de connaissance graduellement, via les contacts de leurs propres contacts. En introduisant cet élément dans un modèle de formation de réseau, on obtient des prédictions sur la taille des innovateurs et sur la relation entre taille et distance des citations qui sont vérifiées dans les données. Le second chapitre prend ces réseaux locaux d’innovateurs comme fixés, et examine leur influence sur les décisions de relocalisations d’établissements de R&D par les firmes. Je montre que les firmes innovantes sont plus mobiles que la moyenne, et que des réseaux d’innovation plus denses attirent les firmes tandis qu’une mauvaise position dans le réseau rend les firmes plus susceptibles de se relocaliser. J’étudie ensuite théoriquement le problème d’une firme pouvant relocaliser ses laboratoires mais possédant des informations limitées sur les autres localisations. Le troisième chapitre s’intéresse à un problème différent dans lequel le bien public local est produit par le service public de manière spatialement hétérogène, à cause de salaires fixés de manière centralisée. Il montre que les fonctionnaires génèrent des externalités positives sur le secteur privé, ce qui implique que des niveaux hétérogènes de biens publics locaux déforment la géographie de l’activité privée.

Publié en 2019-07 Collection Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers : 2019-11
LARREGUY Horacio
REID Otis
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We estimate the effects of one of the largest anti-vote-buying campaigns ever studied—with half a million voters exposed across 1427 villages—in Uganda’s 2016 elections. Working with civil society organizations, we designed the study to estimate how voters and candidates responded to their campaign in treatment and spillover villages, and how impacts varied with campaign intensity. Despite its heavy footprint, the campaign did not reduce politician offers of gifts in exchange for votes. However, it had sizable effects on people’s votes. Votes swung from well-funded incumbents (who buy most votes) towards their poorly-financed challengers. We argue the swing arose from changes in village social norms plus the tactical response of candidates. While the campaign struggled to instill norms of refusing gifts, it leveled the electoral playing field by convincing some voters to abandon norms of reciprocity—thus accepting gifts from politicians but voting for their preferred candidate.

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Cette thèse étudie la solution à plusieurs modèles de marchés financiers avec des agents hétérogènes dont le taux d'aversion au risque diffère. Le premier chapitre résout un modèle avec des marchés complets et des dividendes définis par un mouvement brownien géométrique. Le deuxième chapitre résout un modèle similaire, mais avec un dividende qui revient à sa moyenne et montre comment on peut estimer le modèle. Le troisième chapitre résout le modèle du premier chapitre quand les agents sont confrontés à des contraintes convexes de portefeuille.

in American Economic Journal: Applied Economics Publié en 2019-07
CAMPANTE Filipe
GUIMARAES Bernardo
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We investigate the links between capital cities, conflict, and the quality of governance, starting from the assumption that incumbent elites are constrained by the threat of insurrection, and that the latter is rendered less effective by distance from the seat of political power. We show evidence that (i) conflict is more likely to emerge (and dislodge incumbents) closer to the capital, and (ii) isolated capitals are associated with misgovernance. The results hold only for relatively nondemocratic countries and for intrastate conflicts over government (as opposed to territory)—exactly the cases where our central assumption should apply.

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