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At the start of the XXI century, characterized by the rise of new forms of employment and of skills requirements, many countries need to adapt their labor market institutions to accompany technological changes and globalization. In this context, unemployment insurance is an essential tool to foster and smooth career paths. Its core components comprise unemployment benefits paid to full-time unemployed workers, monitoring, and counseling. But it is clear that they are not sufficient to cover all risks properly. To deal with this issue, part-time unemployment insurance, short-time work and wage insurance have been tried, at different scales, in several countries over the last decades. This paper surveys the evaluations of these schemes and draws lessons from their results for future research and for labor market institutions.

in The Future of Social Protection Publié en 2018-11
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This chapter discusses the ongoing efforts to integrate the social protection of self-employed workers into the general social protection system in France. Several autonomous schemes and a complex system of contribution rates and entitlements obscure the relationship between gross and net wages and hinder the mobility of workers across jobs and occupations. While there have been efforts to harmonise the social protection of self-employed workers and employees, differences in coverage and contribution rates remain. The social protection of employees and self-employed workers is also managed by diverse institutions which are imperfectly coordinated. This paper describes the contribution rates and the social protection of various forms of employment in France. It provides information about the different components of the social protection of self-employed people (the organisation of schemes and their financial architecture, membership of the schemes, contributions and benefits) and compares the situation of different kinds of self-employed workers with that of employees. The chapter also discusses a special unemployment scheme for performing artists and related occupations, the Intermittents du spectacle.

Directeur de la thèse ALGAN Yann, CAHUC Pierre Publié en 2018-04
MINEA Andreea
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Le 1er chapitre examine le rôle de la culture d’origine sur la manière dont les jeunes hommes et femmes diffèrent dans leurs choix de retarder le départ du foyer parental. Je montre que dans les cultures caractérisées par des valeurs traditionnelles portant sur les rôles de genre, les jeunes hommes ont plus d’incitations que les jeunes femmes à rester chez leurs parents. Lorsque les femmes de ces cultures vont vivre dans une société plus libérale par rapport aux rôles de genre, elles quittent plus vite le foyer parental et cherchent à trouver un mari d’une culture différente de la leur. Dans le 2e chapitre, nous montrons, à partir d’un testing sur CV, que les jeunes peu qualifiés sont moins rappelés par les employeurs du secteur privé lorsqu’ils sont Maghrébins plutôt que Français. L’origine des candidats n’a pourtant pas d’effet sur le taux de rappel dans le secteur public, même si les recruteurs des deux secteurs ont des préférences discriminatoires similaires. Notre modèle montre que l'absence de discrimination à l’invitation pour un entretien dans le secteur public est compatible, dans ce contexte, avec une discrimination plus forte à l'embauche. Le 3e chapitre s’appuie aussi sur un testing sur CV pour étudier les effets de l’expérience professionnelle des jeunes décrocheurs du secondaire quatre ans après avoir quitté les études. À défaut de formation certifiante, le taux de rappel n’est pas plus élevé pour ceux ayant eu une expérience professionnelle, subventionnée ou non, dans le secteur marchand ou non-marchand par rapport à ceux restés au chômage. De plus, une formation certifiante améliore les taux de rappel uniquement lorsque le taux de chômage local est faible.

in Journal of Comparative Economics Publié en 2015-08
VAKULENKO Elena
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We study barriers to labor mobility using panel data on gross region-to-region migration flows in Russia in 1996–2010. Using both parametric and semiparametric methods and controlling for region-to-region pairwise fixed effects, we find a non-monotonic relationship between income and migration. In richer regions, higher incomes result in lower migration outflows. However, in the poorest regions, an increase in incomes results in higher emigration. This is consistent with the presence of geographical poverty traps: potential migrants want to leave the poor regions but cannot afford to move. We also show that economic growth and financial development have allowed most Russian regions to grow out of poverty traps bringing down interregional differentials of wages, incomes and unemployment rates.

We develop an informational theory of dictatorship. Dictators survive not because of their use of force or ideology but because they convince the public--rightly or wrongly--that they are competent. Citizens do not observe the dictator's type but infer it from signals inherent in their living standards, state propaganda, and messages sent by an informed elite via independent media. If citizens conclude the dictator is incompetent, they overthrow him in a revolution. The dictator can invest in making convincing state propaganda, censoring independent media, co-opting the elite, or equipping police to repress attempted uprisings -- but he must finance such spending with taxes that depress the public's living standards. We show that incompetent dictators can survive as long as economic shocks are not too large. Moreover, their reputations for competence may grow over time. Censorship and co-optation of the elite are substitutes, but both are complements of propaganda. Repression of protests is a substitute for all the other techniques. In some equilibria the ruler uses propaganda and co-opts the elite; in others, propaganda is combined with censorship. The multiplicity of equilibria emerges due to coordination failure among members of the elite. We show that repression is used against ordinary citizens only as a last resort when the opportunities to survive through co-optation, censorship, and propaganda are exhausted. In the equilibrium with censorship, difficult economic times prompt higher relative spending on censorship and propaganda. The results illuminate tradeoffs faced by various recent dictatorships.

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This paper draws on a natural experiment to identify the relationship between income and trust. We use a unique panel dataset on Russia where GDP experienced an 8 percent drop in 2009. The effect of the crisis had been very uneven among Russian regions because of their differences in industrial structure inherited from the Soviet times. We find that the regions that specialize in producing capital goods, as well as those depending on oil and gas, had a more substantial income decline during the crisis. The variation in the industrial structure allows creating an instrument for the change in income. After instrumenting average regional income, we find that the effect of income on generalized social trust (the share of respondents saying that most people can be trusted) is statistically and economically significant. Controlling for conventional determinants of trust, we show that 10 percent decrease in income is associated with 5 percentage point decrease in trust. Given that the average level of trust in Russia is 25%, this magnitude is substantial. We also find that post-crisis economic recovery did not restore pre-crisis trust level. Trust recovered only in those regions where the 2009 decline in trust was small. In the regions with the large decline in trust during the crisis, trust in 2014 was still 10 percentage points below its pre-crisis level.

in Putin's Russia Sous la direction de ARON Leon Publié en 2015-05
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In this paper Sergei Guriev focuses on the postcrisis slowdown, which mushroomed into the current crisis. The goal is to explain the origins of the slowdown, understand its political implications, and analyze its interaction with the 2014 crisis in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

in The review of economic studies Publié en 2019-03
CARCILLO Stéphane
LE BARBANCHON Thomas
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This paper analyzes the effectiveness of hiring credits. Using comprehensive administrative data, we show that the French hiring credit, implemented during the Great Recession, had significant positive employment effects and no effects on wages. Relying on the quasi-experimental variation in labor cost triggered by the hiring credit, we estimate a structural search and matching model. Simulations of counterfactual policies show that the effectiveness of the hiring credit relied to a large extent on three features: it was nonanticipated, temporary and targeted at jobs with rigid wages. We estimate that the cost per job created by permanent hiring credits, either countercyclical or time-invariant, in an environment with flexible wages would have been much higher.

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This article provides a model of labor market equilibrium with search and within-firm strategic bargaining.We yield explicit closed form solutions with heterogeneous labor inputs and capital. The solution exhibits overemployment.We show that higher relative bargaining power for some groups of workers may lead to overemployment relative to other groups, with such other groups being underemployed instead if they have a lower relative bargaining power. Similarly, the hold-up problem between capitalists and employees does not necessarily lead to underinvestment in physical capital.

in Annual Review of Economics Publié en 2013-08
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This article surveys recent research on the relationship between trust and growth. It documents the strong international and interregional heterogeneity of trust. The theoretical mechanisms that explain the influence of trust on economic performance and the empirical methods used to identify the causal impact of trust on economic performance are reviewed.

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This paper shows that cross country differences in the generosity and the quality of the welfare state are associated with differences in the trustworthiness of their citizens. We show that generous, transparent and efficient welfare states in Scandinavian countries are based on the civicness of their citizens. In contrast, the generosity but low transparency of the Continental European welfare states survive thanks to the support of a large share of uncivic individuals who consider that it can be justifiable to misbehave with taxes and social benefits. We also explain why countries with an intermediate degree of trustworthiness of their citizens and of transparency of the government, like Anglo-Saxon countries, have small welfare states. Overall, this paper provides a rationale for the observed persistence of both efficient and inefficient welfare states, as a function of the civicness of the citizens.

in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Publié en 2009-02
AUER Raphaël
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This paper extends the Mussa and Rosen (1978) model of quality pricing under perfect competition. Exporters sell goods of different qualities to consumers who have heterogeneous preferences for quality. Production is subject to decreasing returns to scale and, therefore, supply and the toughness of competition react to cost changes brought about by exchange rate fluctuations. First, we predict that exchange rate shocks are imperfectly passed through into prices. Second, prices of low-quality goods are more sensitive to exchange rate shocks than prices of high-quality goods. Third, in response to an exchange rate appreciation, the composition of exports shifts toward higher quality and more expensive goods. We test these predictions using highly disaggregated price and quantity U.S. import data and find only weak empirical evidence in support of our theory.

in COGITO, la lettre de la recherche à Sciences Po Publié en 2018-11
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Il existe en économie une régularité empirique étonnante exprimée par ce que l’on appelle l’équation de gravité : dans une année donnée, et ce depuis au moins un siècle pour lequel il existe des données précises, la valeur des échanges commerciaux entre deux pays est approximativement proportionnelle à leurs tailles, et inversement proportionnelle à la distance géographique qui les sépare. En d’autres termes, deux pays éloignés de 500 km échangent deux fois plus que deux pays éloignés de 1.000km, toutes choses égales par ailleurs.

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The gravity equation in international trade states bilateral exports are proportional to economic size, and inversely proportional to geographic distance. While the role of size is well understood, that of distance remains mysterious. I offer an explanation for the role of distance: If (i) the distribution of firm sizes is Pareto, (ii) the average squared distance of a firm’s exports is an increasing power function of its size, and (iii) a parameter restriction holds, then the distance elasticity of trade is constant for long distances. When the firm size distribution follows Zipf’s law, trade is inversely proportional to distance.

Publié en 2018-08
CARBONNIER Clément
MALGOUYRES Clément
PY Loriane
FOFFANO Charlotte
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Le crédit d’impôt pour la compétitivité et l’emploi (CICE) a été institué avec l’objectif d’améliorer la compétitivité des entreprises. Pour étudier ses différents effets potentiels sur l’emploi et les salaires, l’évaluation présentée ici s’appuie d’une part sur une analyse économique, et d’autre part sur une étude sociologique, dont les résultats qualitatifs avaient été détaillés lors du rapport remis le 29 septembre 2016 par le LIEPP de Sciences Po à France Stratégie. L’analyse micro-économique basée sur les données fiscales et sociales des entreprises fait tout d’abord apparaître que, au niveau de l’emploi, les décisions des nouvelles embauches des entreprises n’ont pas été affectées par la présence de la nette discontinuité du CICE. De plus, comparativement aux entreprises moins intensément ciblées par la mesure, les entreprises les plus intensément ciblées par le CICE n’ont pas connu de hausse de l’emploi entre 2013 et 2015, et cela quelle que soit la catégorie socio-professionnelle. Concernant l’effet sur les salaires, notre analyse montre que la mesure n’a pas eu d’impact détectable sur la distribution des hausses de salaires mais il apparaît toutefois qu’au niveau de l’entreprise, les sommes allouées dans le cadre du CICE ont été en partie reversées aux salariés, sous forme de hausses de salaires, en particulier aux cadres, professions intellectuelles supérieures et professions intermédiaires. Il faut garder à l’esprit que les conclusions de cette évaluation ne portent que sur les trois premières années de mise en place du CICE, les données de 2016 et 2017 n’étant pas encore disponibles au moment de l’évaluation. Il convient enfin de préciser la difficulté de toute étude portant sur le CICE : celui-ci n’a pas été conçu de manière à être évalué par un dispositif expérimental.

Publié en 2014-02
HEAD Keith
THOENIG Mathias
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This paper investigates the consequences of replacing the assumption of Pareto heterogeneity with log-normal heterogeneity. This case is interesting because it (a) maintains some desirable analytic features of Pareto, (b) ts the complete distribution of rm sales rather than just approximating the right tail, and (c) can be generated under equally plausible processes (see online appendix). The log-normal is reasonably tractable but its use sacrices some \scale-free" properties conveyed by the Pareto distribution. Aspects of the the calibration that do not matter under Pareto lead to important dierences in the gains from trade under log-normal.

in American Economic Review Publié en 2014-02
MELITZ Marc J.
OTTAVIANO Gianmarco
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We build a theoretical model of multi-product firms that highlights how competition across market destinations affects both a firm's exported product range and product mix. We show how tougher competition in an export market induces a firm to skew its export sales toward its best performing products. We find very strong confirmation of this competitive effect for French exporters across export market destinations. Theoretically, this within-firm change in product mix driven by the trading environment has important repercussions on firm productivity. A calibrated fit to our theoretical model reveals that these productivity effects are potentially quite large.

in American Economic Review Publié en 2017-04
LISE Jeremy
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We develop an equilibrium model of on-the-job search with ex ante heterogeneous workers and firms, aggregate uncertainty, and vacancy creation. The model produces rich dynamics in which the distributions of unemployed workers, vacancies, and worker-firm matches evolve stochastically over time. We prove that the surplus function, which fully characterizes the match value and the mobility decision of workers, does not depend on these distributions. This result means the model is tractable and can be estimated. We illustrate the quantitative implications of the model by fitting to US aggregate labor market data from 1951-2012. The model has rich implications for the cyclical dynamics of the distribution of skills of the unemployed, the distribution of types of vacancies posted, and sorting between heterogeneous workers and firms.

in COGITO, la lettre de la recherche à Sciences Po Publié en 2018-04
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Y a t-il plus de chômeurs qualifiés lorsque l’économie est en récession ? Les chômeurs sont-ils alors plus souvent contraints d’accepter des emplois de moindre qualité ? À l’inverse, les employés trouvent-ils plus facilement de meilleurs emplois lorsque l’économie rebondit ? Pour répondre à ces questions, Jean-Marc Robin, chercheur au Département d’économie de Sciences Po, et Jeremy Lise, Associate Professor à l’Université du Minnesota, ont élaboré un modèle macroéconomique très riche qu’ils ont calibré sur données américaines. Ils en ont fait l’exposé dans la très prestigieuse The American Economic Review : The Macro-dynamics of Sorting between Workers and Firms. Aperçu.

Publié en 2011-09
JACQUEMET Nicolas
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We propose a search-matching model of the marriage market that extends Shimer and Smith (2000) to allow for labor supply. We characterize the steady-state equilibrium when exogenous divorce is the only source of risk. The estimated matching probabilities that can be derived from the steady-state flow conditions are strongly increasing in both male and female wages. We estimate that the share of marriage surplus appropriated by the man increases with his wage and that the share appropriated by the woman decreases with her wage. We find that leisure is an inferior good for men and a normal good for women.

in The Review of Economic Studies Publié en 2018-10
BUCHARDI Konrad B
HASSAN Tarek A
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We use 130 years of data on historical migrations to the United States to show a causal effect of the ancestry composition of US counties on foreign direct investment (FDI) sent and received by local firms. To isolate the causal effect of ancestry on FDI, we build a simple reduced-form model of migrations: Migrations from a foreign country to a US county at a given time depend on (i) a push factor, causing emigration from that foreign country to the entire United States, and (ii) a pull factor, causing immigration from all origins into that US county. The interaction between time-series variation in origin-specific push factors and destination-specific pull factors generates quasi-random variation in the allocation of migrants across US counties. We find that doubling the number of residents with ancestry from a given foreign country relative to the mean increases the probability that at least one local firm engages in FDI with that country by 4 percentage points. We present evidence that this effect is primarily driven by a reduction in information frictions, and not by better contract enforcement, taste similarities, or a convergence in factor endowments.

in Journal of International Economics Publié en 2011-05
HEAD Keith
RIES John
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Most independent nations today were part of empires in 1945. Using bilateral trade data from 1948 to 2006, we examine the effect of independence on post-colonial trade. While there is little short-run effect on trade, after four decades trade with the metropole (colonizer) has contracted by about 65%. Hostile separations lead to large, immediate reductions in trade. We also !nd that trade between former colonies of the same empire erodes as much as trade with the metropole, whereas trade with third countries decreases about 20%. The gradual trade deterioration following independence suggests the depreciation of some form of trading capital.

in American Economic Review Publié en 2016
LISE Jeremy
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We develop an equilibrium model of on-the-job search with ex ante heterogeneous workers and firms, aggregate uncertainty, and vacancy creation. The model produces rich dynamics in which the distributions of unemployed workers, vacancies, and worker-firm matches evolve stochastically over time. We prove that the surplus function, which fully characterizes the match value and the mobility decision of workers, does not depend on these distributions. This result means the model is tractable and can be estimated. We illustrate the quantitative implications of the model by fitting to US aggregate labor market data from 1951–2012. The model has rich implications for the cyclical dynamics of the distribution of skills of the unemployed, the distribution of types of vacancies posted, and sorting between heterogeneous workers and firms.

This paper introduces a spatial equilibrium model that relates earnings, employment, and internal migration responses to minimum wage increases. Population moves to or away from regions that increase minimum wages depending on the labor demand elasticity and on the financing of unemployment benefits. The empirical evidence shows that increases in minimum wages lead to increases in average wages and decreases in employment among the low-skilled. The labor demand elasticity is estimated to be above 1, in the model a necessary condition for the migration responses observed in the data. Low-skilled workers tend to leave the regions that increase minimum wages.

We propose a methodology for constructing confidence regions with partially identified models of general form. The region is obtained by inverting a test of internal consistency of the econometric structure. We develop a dilation bootstrap methodology to deal with sampling uncertainty without reference to the hypothesized economic structure. It requires bootstrapping the quantile process for univariate data and a novel generalization of the latter to higher dimensions. Once the dilation is chosen to control the confidence level, the unknown true distribution of the observed data can be replaced by the known empirical distribution and confidence regions can then be obtained as in Galichon and Henry (2011) and Beresteanu, Molchanov and Molinari (2011).

in Economic Theory Publié en 2013-11
QUAH John K.-H
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Almost invariably, economic models postulate that agents behave according to some type of maximizing behavior. This is true even of models in behavioral economics, though agents in those settings may be unsophisticated in some way or have preferences that depart from classical assumptions (...).

in Management Science Publié en 2018
BAGUES Manuel
CABRALES Antonio
IRIBERRI Nagore
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This paper studies the effect of providing feedback to college students on their position in the grade distribution by using a natural field experiment. This information was updated every six months during a three-year period. We find that greater grades transparency decreases educational performance, as measured by the number of exams passed and GPA. However self-reported satisfaction, as measured by surveys conducted after feedback is provided but before students take their exams, increases. We provide a theoretical framework to understand these results, focusing on the role of prior beliefs, and using out-of-trial surveys to test the model. In the absence of treatment, a majority of students underestimate their position in the grade distribution, suggesting that the updated information is “good news” for many students. Moreover, the negative effect on performance is driven by those students who underestimate their position in the absence of feedback. Students who overestimate initially their position, if anything, respond positively. The performance effects are short lived - by the time students graduate, they have similar accumulated GPA and graduation rates.

Publié en 2013-03
LISE Jeremy
MEGHIR Costas
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We develop an empirical search-matching model with productivity shocks so as to analyze policy interventions in a labor market with heterogeneous agents. To achieve this we develop an equilibrium model of wage determination and employment, which is consistent with key empirical facts. As such our model extends the current literature on equilibrium wage determination with matching and provides a bridge between some of the most prominent macro models and microeconometric research. The model incorporates long-term contracts, on-the-job search and counter-offers, and a vacancy creation and destruction process linked to productivity shocks. Importantly, the model allows for the possibility of assortative matching between workers and jobs, a feature that had been ruled out by assumption in the empirical equilibrium search literature to date. We use the model to estimate the potential gain from an optimal unemployment insurance scheme, as well as the redistributive effects of such a policy

Publié en 2014-12
CHERNOZHUKOV Victor
HENRY Marc
PASS Brendan, Department Of Mathematics
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This paper derives conditions under which preferences and technology are nonparametrically identified in hedonic equilibrium models, where products are differentiated along more than one dimension and agents are characterized by several dimensions of unobserved heterogeneity. With products differentiated along a quality index and agents characterized by scalar unobserved heterogeneity, single crossing conditions on preferences and technology provide identifying restrictions. We develop similar shape restrictions in the multi-attribute case and we provide identification results from the observation of a single market. We thereby extend identification results in Matzkin (2003) and Heckman, Matzkin, and Nesheim (2010) to accommodate multiple dimensions of unobserved heterogeneity.

in Review of World Economics Publié en 2018-08
MALGOUYRES Clément
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We investigate the role that labor costs hold in exporters’ performance. To do so, we exploit a large-scale French reform that granted most firms a tax credit proportional to the wagebill of their employees paid below a given threshold. This policy effectively translated into a cut in labor cost whose magnitude varies depending on firm-specific wage structures. We use the predicted treatment intensity based on pre-reform composition of the labor force as an instrument for the actual policy-induced firm-level change in labor costs. Although our point estimates are consistent with commonly estimated firm-level trade elasticities combined with reasonable labor shares in total costs, coefficients are found to be very noisy, suggesting lack of robust evidence of a causal effect of the policy. We discuss several potential explanations for our results as well as their implications.

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