Coauthor
  • NAPOLETANO Mauro (8)
  • DOSI Giovanni (8)
  • ROVENTINI Andrea (7)
  • GUILLOU Sarah (7)
  • Show more
Document Type
  • Article (7)
  • Working paper (7)
  • Part or chapter of a book (1)
  • Report part (1)
in Comité de suivi du Crédit d'impôt pour la compétitivité et l'emploi Sous la direction de PISANI-FERRY Jean Publication date 2015-07
9
views

0
downloads
Créé par la loi de finances rectificative du 29 décembre 2012, le crédit d’impôt pour la compétitivité et l’emploi (CICE) est en vigueur depuis janvier 2013. Après une phase d’apprentissage dont les précédents rapports de ce comité ont analysé les conséquences, il peut être considéré comme entré dans sa phase de maturité. Ce constat vaut pour les entreprises : tout indique que celles-ci ont maintenant une bonne connaissance des implications comptables du dispositif, de son fonctionnement et des obligations déclaratives qu’il comporte. L’hypothèse d’un non recours significatif peut désormais être écartée. Le même constat vaut aussi pour les administrations : les écarts entre source fiscale et source sociale sur le montant du CICE sont devenus très faibles. La question principale est donc désormais celle de l’effet du dispositif sur les comportements d’investissement, de prix et d’emploi des entreprises, et, au-delà de ces variables, sur la croissance, le chômage, l’innovation et le commerce extérieur. Il importe également de savoir s’il a été à l’origine d’un dialogue social de qualité au sein des entreprises. [Résumé Rapport]

Nous étudions l'impact potentiel du CICE sur le comportement d'exportation des firmes françaises. Notre méthodologie combine des paramètres estimés ex-ante avec l'intensité de traitement observée ex post pour réaliser une évaluation des effets attendus. Selon nos résultats, un effet non négligeable du CICE sur la marge intensive des exportations peut être attendu. Le montant de la créance de 2013 devrait permettre d'observer, à terme, un surplus d'exportations de 1 %, alors que la créance CICE de 2014 permettrait un surplus de 1,3 %. En revanche, le CICE ne devrait pas avoir un impact sensible sur l'entrée de nouveaux exportateurs ou sur la survie d'anciens exportateurs qui seraient devenus plus compétitifs grâce au dispositif. L'entrée et la sortie du marché international sont très faiblement liées au coût salarial. Cependant, si le CICE se traduit à terme par une hausse de l'investissement, d'autres canaux de transmission pourraient influencer la marge extensive du commerce international.

in Contemporary issues in macroeconomics Sous la direction de STIGLITZ Joseph , GUZMAN Martin Publication date 2015
DOSI Giovanni
ROVENTINI Andrea
TREIBICH Tania
9
views

0
downloads
In this work we analyze the short- and long-run effects of fiscal austerity policies, employing an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous, boundedly-rational firms and banks. The model, in line with the family of "Keynes+Schumpeter" formalism, is able to account for a wide array of macro and micro empirical regularities. In particular, it endogenously generates self-sustained growth patterns together with persistent economic fluctuations punctuated by deep downturns. On the policy side, we find that austerity policies considerably harm the economy, by increasing output volatility, unemployment, and the incidence of crises. In addition, they depress innovation and the diffusion of new technologies, thus reducing long-run productivity and GDP growth. Finally, we show that "discipline-guided" fiscal rules are self-defeating, as they do not stabilize public finances, but, on the contrary, they disrupt them.

Publication date 2014-11
DOSI Giovanni
FAGIOLO Giorgio
TREIBICH Tania
2
views

2
downloads
In this work we analyze the short- and long-run effects of fiscal austerity policies, employing an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous, boundedly-rational firms and banks. The model, in line with the family of “Keynes+Schumpeter” formalism, is able to account for a wide array of macro and micro empirical regularities. In particular, it endogenously generates self-sustained growth patterns together with persistent economic fluctuations punctuated by deep downturns. On the policy side, we find that austerity policies considerably harm the economy, by increasing output volatility, unemployment, and the incidence of crises. In addition, they depress innovation and the diffusion of new technologies, thus reducing long-run productivity and GDP growth. Finally, we show that “discipline-guided” fiscal rules are self-defeating, as they do not stabilize public finances, but, on the contrary, they disrupt them.

The objective of this paper is to show that part of the fixed cost of firms’ trade expansion is due to the acquisition of new internal capabilities (e.g. technology, production processes or skills), which imply a costly change in the firm’s internal labor organisation. We investigate the relationship between a firm’s structure of labor, in terms of relative number of managers, and the scope of its export portfolio, in terms of product-destination varieties. The empirical analysis is based on a matched employer- employee dataset covering the population of French firms from tradable sectors over the period 2009-2014. Our analysis suggests that market expansion, and in particular export diversification, is associated with a change in the firm’s workforce composition, namely an increase in the number of managerial layers and in the ratio of managers. We show how these results are consistent with a simple model where the complexity of a firm’s operations increases in the number of product-destination couples exported, and where managers’ role is to address the unsolved problems arising from such increased complexity of operations

Nous étudions l'impact potentiel du CICE sur le comportement d'exportation des firmes françaises. Notre méthodologie combine des paramètres estimés ex-ante avec l'intensité de traitement observée ex post pour réaliser une évaluation des effets attendus. Selon nos résultats, un effet non négligeable du CICE sur la marge intensive des exportations peut être attendu. Le montant de la créance de 2013 devrait permettre d'observer, à terme, un surplus d'exportations de 1 %, alors que la créance CICE de 2014 permettrait un surplus de 1,3 %. En revanche, le CICE ne devrait pas avoir un impact sensible sur l'entrée de nouveaux exportateurs ou sur la survie d'anciens exportateurs qui seraient devenus plus compétitifs grâce au dispositif. L'entrée et la sortie du marché international sont très faiblement liées au coût salarial. Cependant, si le CICE se traduit à terme par une hausse de l'investissement, d'autres canaux de transmission pourraient influencer la marge extensive du commerce international

in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Publication date 2015-03
DOSI Giovanni
FAGIOLO Giorgio
ROVENTINI Andrea
TREIBICH Tania
5
views

0
downloads
What is the most appropriate combination of fiscal and monetary policies in economies subject to banking crises and deep recessions? We study this issue using an agent-based model that is able to reproduce a wide array of macro- and micro-empirical regularities. Simulation results suggest that policy mixes associating unconstrained, counter-cyclical fiscal policy and monetary policy targeting employment is required to stabilise the economy. We also show that “discipline-guided” fiscal rules can be self-defeating, as they depress the economy without improving public finances. Finally, we find that the effects of monetary and fiscal policies become sharper as the level of income inequality increases.

in Journal of Evolutionary Economics Publication date 2017-01
DOSI Giovanni
ROVENTINI Andrea
2
views

0
downloads
Abstract This paper presents the family of the Keynes+Schumpeter (K+S, cf. Dosi et al, J Econ Dyn Control 34 1748–1767 2010, J Econ Dyn Control 37 1598–1625 2013, J Econ Dyn Control 52 166–189 2015) evolutionary agent-based models, which study the effects of a rich ensemble of innovation, industrial dynamics and macroeconomic policies on the long-term growth and short-run fluctuations of the economy. The K+S models embed the Schumpeterian growth paradigm into a complex system of imperfect coordination among heterogeneous interacting firms and banks, where Keynesian (demand-related) and Minskian (credit cycle) elements feed back into the meso and macro dynamics. The model is able to endogenously generate long-run growth together with business cycles and major crises. Moreover, it reproduces a long list of macroeconomic and microeconomic stylized facts. Here, we discuss a series of experiments on the role of policies affecting i) innovation, ii) industry dynamics, iii) demand and iv) income distribution. Our results suggest the presence of strong complementarities between Schumpeterian (technological)

In this work we study the granular origins of business cycles and their possible underlying drivers. As shown by Gabaix (2011), the skewed nature of firm size distributions implies that idiosyncratic (and independent) firm-level shocks may account for a significant portion of aggregate volatility. Yet, we question the original view grounded on “supply granularity”, as proxied by productivity growth shocks – in line with the Real Business Cycle framework–, and we provide empirical evidence of a “demand granularity”, based on investment growth shocks instead. The role of demand in explaining aggregate fluctuations is further corroborated by means of a macroeconomic Agent-Based Model of the “Schumpeter meeting Keynes” family (Dosi et al., 2015). Indeed, the investigation of the possible microfoundation of RBC has led us to the identification of a sort of microfounded Keynesian multiplier.

The objective of this paper is to show that part of the fixed cost of a firm’s trade expansion is due to the acquisition of new internal capabilities (e.g., technology, production processes or skills), which implies a costly change in the firm’s internal labor organization. We investigate the relationship between a firm’s labor structure, in terms of the relative number of managers, and the scope of its export portfolio, in terms of its product-destination varieties. The empirical analysis is based on a matched employer-employee dataset covering the population of French firms from tradable sectors over the period 2009-2015. Our analysis suggests that market ex- pansion, both through export entry and export diversification, is associated with a change in the firm’s workforce composition, namely an increase in the number of managerial layers. These results are generally confirmed with the use of an instrumental variable approach to control for reverse causality. We show how these results are consistent with a simple model, where the complexity of a firm’s operations increases with the number of product-destination couples ex- ported and the manager’s role is to address the unsolved problems arising from such increased operational complexity.

Next