Co-auteur
  • KOCH Andreas (1)
Type de Document
  • Article (1)
  • Working paper (1)
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This paper examines the main political influence factors accounting for the variation in public debt accumulation on a global scale. This allows for a reassessment of the recent focus on a regime type theory of public debt and for a test of an alternative governance theory. I argue that political stability, the rule of law, the control of corruption, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality promote lower public debt accumulation by reducing the incentives for governments to “borrow from the future,” by increasing state capacity to collect taxes and effectively use public funds, and by providing more security and equity to private investment, inducing higher economic growth and tax revenues. Both theories are tested against a number of controls stemming from theories of public choice, theories of governmental distributional conflict, as well as from politico-institutional and macroeconomic explanations of public debt accumulation. Applying different specifications of quantitative models, the two governance indicators political stability and regulatory quality show consistent effects on public debt accumulation, partly confirming the proposed governance theory. Furthermore, the paper can reproduce a public debt-reducing effect of more democratic regime types across a number of model specifications – though without a high degree of robustness.

in GI_Forum Publié en 2015
EISL Andreas
KOCH Andreas
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Geographic research necessitates different types of models that aim at reducing the complexity of reality, enabling us to analyze its representations. Models allow us to infer exploratory and confirmatory findings about causal links between different geographic conditions, different social, political, and economic actors, their behaviors, and land use and its dynamics. However, the spatial, temporal, and attributive nature of data complicates the appropriate model choice for specific research purposes. This conceptual paper keeps track of model construction in the context of land use and land use change. It reveals different issues where particular caution is required, such as spatial and temporal dependency and heterogeneity, scale dependency, and bidirectional causality. With geographic research being increasingly under the influence of econometric methods, we contend that it is necessary to provide intermediary qualitative layers of evidence between conceptual and, especially, empirical and simulative models of land use and land use change to ensure robust findings about causal relationships between observed variables.