Type
Article
Titre
Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda
Dans
Critical Review
Auteur(s)
TUCKET David - University College of London (UCL) (Auteur)
MANDEL Antoine - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics (Auteur)
MANGALAGIU Diana - Reims Management School (Auteur)
ABRAMSON Allen - University College of London (UCL) (Auteur)
HINKEL Jochen - Global Climate Forum (Auteur)
KATSIKOPOULOS Konstantinos - Max Planck Institute (Auteur)
KIRMAN Alan - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille (Auteur)
MALLERET Thierry - IJ Partners SA (Auteur)
MOZETIC Igor - Jozef Stefan Institute (Auteur)
ORMEROD Paul - University College of London (UCL) (Auteur)
SMITH Robert Elliot - University College of London (UCL) (Auteur)
VENTURINI Tommaso - Médialab (Auteur)
WILKINSON Angela - Said Business School (Auteur)
Éditeur
US : Routledge
Volume
27
Numéro
2
Pages
213 - 242 p.
ISSN
08913811
DOI
10.1080/08913811.2015.1037078
Résumé
EN
The financial crisis of 2008 was unforeseen partly because the academic theories that underpin policy making do not sufficiently account for uncertainty and complexity or learned and evolved human capabilities for managing them. Mainstream theories of decision making tend to be strongly normative and based on wishfully unrealistic “idealized” modeling. In order to develop theories of actual decision making under uncertainty, we need new methodologies that account for how human (sentient) actors often manage uncertain situations “well enough.” Some possibly helpful methodologies, drawing on digital science, focus on the role of emotions in determining people’s choices; others examine how people construct narratives that enable them to act; still others combine qualitative with quantitative data.

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