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  • KOMLOS John (7)
  • LE CACHEUX Jacques (4)
  • JOBST Clemens (3)
  • ZUMER Frédéric (3)
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  • Article (26)
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Existe-t-il un lien systématique entre l'organisation du mécanisme de décision au sein d'une union monétaire et le niveau d'inflation moyen que cette union tend à produire ? Autrement dit, une union décentralisée est-elle inflationniste ? A l'inverse de l'analyse de Casella et Feinstein (1989) qui utilise un argument de type « free rider » pour montrer que décentralisation égale inflation, cet article, en s'appuyant sur une réflexion à la fois théorique et historique, suggère que le prétendu biais inflationniste des unions décentralisées peut être corrigé au moyen de mécanismes eux-mêmes décentralisés.

La thèse s'articule autour de deux idées principales : d'une part la mobilité du travail constitue un mécanisme d'ajustement essentiel en régime de change fixe ; d'autre part, le développement des politiques sociales contribue à ralentir le processus d'émigration. L'argumentation s'appuie à la fois sur une réflexion théorique, fondée notamment sur la théorie des zones monétaires optimales, et sur une analyse historique, centrée sur deux époques de l'histoire contemporaine : celle de l'étalon-or et celle de l'entre-deux-guerres. Le chapitre 1 s'attache ainsi à montrer le rôle clé des migrations internationales dans le processus d'ajustement de l'étalon-or. Le chapitre 2 analyse ensuite l'impact de la législation bismarckienne sur l'émigration allemande. Enfin, le chapitre 3 fournit une explication alternative à la chute de l'étalon-or. Au total, l'objectif de la thèse est de montrer l'existence d'un trilemme de politique économique entre migrations internationales, régimes de change et politiques sociales.

Textbook accounts of the Anglo-French trade agreement of 1860 argue that it heralded the beginning of a liberal trading order. This alleged success has much interest from a policy point of view: unlike modern GATT/WTO multilateral agreements, it rested on bilateral negotiations. But, in reality, how great were its effects? With the help of new data on international trade we provide empirical evidence. We find that the Anglo-French treaty and subsequent network of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) trade agreements coincided with the end of a period of unilateral liberalization across the world, and that it did not contribute to expand trade at all. This is contrary to a deeply rooted belief among economists and economic historians. We conclude that, contrary to a popular wisdom, bilateralism did not promote trade in the 19th century.

in Auf Heller und Cent. Beiträge zur Finanz- und Währungsgeschichte Sous la direction de STIEFEL D., BACHINGER K. Publication date 2001
KOMLOS John
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We explore the history of the Austro-Hungarian currency through the floating exchange rate regime of the 1870s and 1880s and the adoption of the gold standard in 1892. Though actual convertibility remained an elusive dream, the A-H Bank was able to stabilise the currency by establishing a credible (de facto) shadow-gold standard by 1896. Though the currency fluctuated by as much as 7% per annum before 1896, credibility was established very quickly, and thereafter the currency was successfully kept within an informal target zone of 0.4%, despite of the well-known internal (and external) political problems of the monarchy and in spite of a number of major financial crisis of foreign origin. This remarkable record positions the Dual Monarchy squarely in between the elite core and the plebeian peripheral countries of the time.

A natural experiment with an exchange-rate band in Austria-Hungary in the early 20th century provides a rare opportunity to discuss critical aspects of the theory of target zones. Providing a new derivation of the target zone model as a set of nested hypotheses, the inference is drawn that policy credibility and market efficiency were paramount in the success of the Austro-Hungarian experience.

in Other People’s Money Sous la direction de EICHENGREEN Barry, HAUSMAN R. Publication date 2005
SUSSMAN Nathan
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Publication date 2003
HOLTFRERICH Carl-Ludwig
JAMES Harold Douglas
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The essays, written by leading experts, examine the history of the international financial system in terms of the debate about globalization and its limits. In the nineteenth century, international markets existed without international institutions. A response to the problems of capital flows came in the form of attempts to regulate national capital markets (for instance through the establishment of central banks). In the inter-war years, there were (largely unsuccessful) attempts at designing a genuine international trade and monetary system; and at the same time (coincidentally) the system collapsed. In the post-1945 era, the intended design effort was infinitely more successful. The development of large international capital markets since the 1960s, however, increasingly frustrated attempts at international control. The emphasis has shifted in consequence to debates about increasing the transparency and effectiveness of markets; but these are exactly the issues that already dominated the nineteenth-century discussions. (Publisher's abstract)

in Economie et politique Publication date 2004-07
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in Politiques et pratiques des banques d'émission en Europe (XVIIe-XXe siècles). Le bicentenaire de la Banque de France dans la perspective de l'identité monétaire européenne Sous la direction de FEIERTAG Olivier, MARGAIRAZ Michel Publication date 2003
SICSIC Pierre
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in Journal of European Economic History Publication date 1995
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Scholars have traditionally argued that the stock of specie in circulation in France in the 19th century was considerable and that this "financial backwardness" accounted for France's slower economic growth in that century. Scholars have also claimed that the French bimetallic system was inherently unstable. It is true that until the 1880's, gold and silver coinage formed the main portion of French monetary stock, perhaps as much as 52% in 1885, but the supposition that this somehow hindered French industrialization requires correction. This is especially true given the fact that no precise figures for the annual monetary stock had existed until recently. As a result of new estimates, two periods of specie can be detected: 1830-52 (predominant silver coinage) and 1853-66 (predominant gold coinage as a result of the depreciation of gold). In general, by the 1850's the stock of specie in circulation was much smaller than conventionally believed and did not exceed by much that in Great Britain. There is no reason to believe that the French bimetallic system adversely affected the French economy.

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