Type
Article
Title
The Deterrent Effects of Prison: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Author(s)
DRAGO Francesco - Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II (Author)
GALBIATI Roberto - Université Paris Nanterre (UPN) (Author)
VERTOVA Pietro - University of Bergamo (Author)
Editor
US
Volume
117
Number
2
Pages
257 - 280 p.
ISSN
00223808
DOI
10.1086/599286
Keywords
Imprisonment, Recidivism, Emprisonnement, Récidive, Incarcération
Abstract
EN
The Collective Clemency Bill passed by the Italian Parliament in July 2006 represents a natural experiment to analyze the behavioral response of individuals to an exogenous manipulation of prison sentences. On the basis of a unique data set on the postrelease behavior of former inmates, we find that 1 month less time served in prison commuted into 1 month more in expected sentence for future crimes reduces the probability of recidivism by 0.16 percentage points. From this result we estimate an elasticity of average recidivism with respect to the expected punishment equal to −0.74 for a 7-month period.
BIBLIOGRAPHIC QUOTE
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