Article in a conference proceedings
Has the Adoption of Inflation Targeting Represented a Regime Switch? Empirical evidence from Canada, Sweden and the UK
57ème Congrès de l’AFSE, Paris, 2008
Association Française de Science Économique
1 - 39 p.
Congrès annuel de l'AFSE
2008-09-18 / 2008-09-19
Inflation targeting, MSVAR, Counterfactuals
Since 1990, a growing number of countries have adopted inflation targeting (IT) around the world. Empirical evidence on its advantages has been mixed so far, and most assessments have been based on a control group methodology. In this paper, using a MSVAR technique, we assess the adoption of IT in three industrialised countries over time; in addition, we compare their outcomes with a non-IT country, the US. Results are manifold. First, an inflation targeting regime exists, although it does not constitute a change in monetary policy reaction. Second, this conclusion is robust on a subsample excluding the periods of high inflation and early sharp disinflation. Third, the sacrifice ratio of higher output volatility generally attributed to inflation stabilisation policies is not sensitive to the adoption of inflation targeting. Fourth, this framework is shown to be conducive to higher monetary policy leeway.