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Publié en 2019-01
KOESSLER Frédéric
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This paper proposes an equilibrium concept, Language-Based Expectation Equilibrium, which accounts for partial language understanding in sender-receiver cheap talk games. Each player is endowed with a privately known language competence which represents all the messages that he understands. For the messages he does not understand, he has correct but only coarse expectations about the equilibrium strategies of the other player. In general, a language-based expectation equilibrium outcome differs from Nash and communication equilibrium outcomes, but is always a Bayesian solution. Partial language competence of the sender rationalizes information transmission and lies in pure persuasion problems, and facilitates information transmission from a moderately biased sender.

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This note gives a new proof of Blackwell’s celebrated result. The result is a bit stronger than the classical version since the action set and the prior are fixed, and only the utility of the decision maker varies. I show directly that a decision maker has access to a larger set of joint distributions over actions and states of the world if and only if her information improves in the garbling order.

Publié en 2018-05
SKRETA Vasiliki
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We characterize a receiver-optimal test when manipulations are possible in the form of type falsification. Optimal design exploits the following manipulator trade-off: while falsification may lead to better grades, it devalues their meaning. We show that optimal tests can be derived among falsification-proof ones. Our optimal test has a single ‘failing’ grade, and a continuum of ‘passing’ grades. It makes the manipulator indifferent across all moderate levels of falsification. Good types never fail, but bad types may pass. An optimal test delivers at least half of the full-information value to the receiver. A three-grade optimal test also performs well.

Governments often take unpopular measures. To minimize the political cost of such measures policy makers may strategically time them to coincide with other newsworthy events, which distract the media and the public. We test this hypothesis using data on the recurrent Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Combining daily data on attacks on both sides of the conflict with data on the content of evening news for top U.S. TV networks, we show that Israeli attacks are more likely to be carried out when the U.S. news are expected to be dominated by important (non-Israel-related) events on the following day. In contrast, we find no evidence of strategic timing for Palestinian attacks. The timing of Israeli attacks minimizes the next-day news coverage which, as confirmed by comprehensive video content analysis, is especially charged with negative emotional content. We also find that: i) strategic timing is applied to retaliation only in periods of less intense fighting, when the urgency of retaliation is lower; ii) strategic timing is present only for the Israeli attacks that bear risk of civilians being affected; and iii) Israeli attacks are timed to newsworthy events that are predictable.

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We investigate the causal impact of broadband Internet on political participation using data from Italy. We show that this impact varies across different forms of political engagement and over time. Initially, broadband had a negative effect on turnout in national elections, driven by increased abstention of ideologically extreme voters. Meanwhile, however, broadband fostered other forms of online and offline participation. Over time, the negative effect was reverted due to the emergence of new political entrepreneurs who used the Internet to convert the initial “exit” back into “voice”. Overall, these nuanced effects underscore the general equilibrium dynamic induced by the Internet.

in The Economic Journal Publié en 2015-08
BUONANNO Paolo
PRAROLO Giovanni
VANIN Paolo
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With weak law-enforcement institutions, a positive shock to the value of natural resources may increase demand for private protection and opportunities for rent appropriation through extortion, favouring the emergence of mafia-type organisations. We test this hypothesis by investigating the emergence of the mafia in twentieth century Sicily, where a severe lack of state property-rights enforcement coincided with a steep rise in international demand for sulphur, Sicily's most valuable export commodity. Using historical data on the early incidence of mafia activity and on the distribution of sulphur reserves, we document that the mafia was more present in municipalities with greater sulphur availability.

This paper studies the prevalence of vertical market foreclosure using a novel dataset on U.S. and international buyer-seller relationships, and across a large range of industries. We find that relationships are more likely to break when suppliers vertically integrate with one of the buyers’ competitors than when they vertically integrate with an unrelated firm. This relationship holds also, among other things, when conditioning on mergers that follow exogenous downward pressure on the supplier’s stock prices, suggesting that reverse causality is unlikely to explain the result. In contrast, the relationship vanishes when using rumored or announced but not completed integration events. Firms experience a substantial drop in sales when one of their suppliers integrates with one of their competitors. This sales drop is mitigated if the firm has alternative suppliers in place.

The strength of contract enforcement determines how firms source inputs and organize production. Using microdata on Indian manufacturing plants, we show that production and sourcing decisions appear systematically distorted in states with weaker enforcement. Specifically, we document that in industries that tend to rely more heavily on relationship-specific intermediate inputs, plants in states with more congested courts shift their expenditures away from intermediate inputs and appear to be more vertically integrated. To quantify the impact of these distortions on aggregate productivity, we construct a model in which plants have several ways of producing, each with different bundles of inputs. Weak enforcement exacerbates a holdup problem that arises when using inputs that require customization, distorting both the intensive and extensive margins of input use. The equilibrium organization of production and the network structure of input-output linkages arise endogenously from the producers’ simultaneous cost minimization decisions. We identify the structural parameters that govern enforcement frictions from cross-state variation in the first moments of producers’ cost shares. A set of counterfactuals show that enforcement frictions lower aggregate productivity to an extent that is relevant on the macro scale.

Publié en 2011-11
GODEFROY Raphael
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Though a large literature on the determinants of turnout has ourished, there is scant evidence on the causal impact of turnout on policies implemented in practice. Using data on French municipalities and instrumental variables for turnout based on temperature and inuenza variations, we show that a one percent increase in turnout decreases on average the municipalities' yearly budget by 1.5 percent. This is mostly due to a decrease in spending on equipment or personnel. We show that this could be the result of a negative effect of turnout on the strength of the incumbent's majority combined with the fact that the incumbent promises higher budgets. We argue, in the context of a theoretical model, that these different facts could be natural consequences of the well documented incumbency advantage.

in Cultural Integration of Immigrants in Europe Sous la direction de ALGAN Yann Publié en 2013-01
LANDAIS Camilla
SENIK Claudia
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The French Republican model appears as a polar case among the different cultural integration models. Dating back to the French Revolution and the Third Republic, France has a long secular tradition imposing restrictive attitudes on the expression of religious and cultural identity in the public sphere. There are, however, growing concerns that this model, despite its claimed egalitarianism and universalism, fails to integrate the new immigrant minorities. The most illustrative example is the 2004 ruling against the display of conspicuous religious symbols in school, mainly targeted at Muslim schoolgirls who wished to wear the hijab. The main consequence of this refusal to acknowledge any minorities has been an inability to know whether the reality of equality matches the rhetoric of perfect cultural integration. While views on national identity and the integration model are very strongly held in France, the evidence base is rather weak. The goal of this chapter is to fill this gap.

in Journal of Comparative Economics Publié en 2015-08
VAKULENKO Elena
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We study barriers to labor mobility using panel data on gross region-to-region migration flows in Russia in 1996–2010. Using both parametric and semiparametric methods and controlling for region-to-region pairwise fixed effects, we find a non-monotonic relationship between income and migration. In richer regions, higher incomes result in lower migration outflows. However, in the poorest regions, an increase in incomes results in higher emigration. This is consistent with the presence of geographical poverty traps: potential migrants want to leave the poor regions but cannot afford to move. We also show that economic growth and financial development have allowed most Russian regions to grow out of poverty traps bringing down interregional differentials of wages, incomes and unemployment rates.

We develop an informational theory of dictatorship. Dictators survive not because of their use of force or ideology but because they convince the public--rightly or wrongly--that they are competent. Citizens do not observe the dictator's type but infer it from signals inherent in their living standards, state propaganda, and messages sent by an informed elite via independent media. If citizens conclude the dictator is incompetent, they overthrow him in a revolution. The dictator can invest in making convincing state propaganda, censoring independent media, co-opting the elite, or equipping police to repress attempted uprisings -- but he must finance such spending with taxes that depress the public's living standards. We show that incompetent dictators can survive as long as economic shocks are not too large. Moreover, their reputations for competence may grow over time. Censorship and co-optation of the elite are substitutes, but both are complements of propaganda. Repression of protests is a substitute for all the other techniques. In some equilibria the ruler uses propaganda and co-opts the elite; in others, propaganda is combined with censorship. The multiplicity of equilibria emerges due to coordination failure among members of the elite. We show that repression is used against ordinary citizens only as a last resort when the opportunities to survive through co-optation, censorship, and propaganda are exhausted. In the equilibrium with censorship, difficult economic times prompt higher relative spending on censorship and propaganda. The results illuminate tradeoffs faced by various recent dictatorships.

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This paper draws on a natural experiment to identify the relationship between income and trust. We use a unique panel dataset on Russia where GDP experienced an 8 percent drop in 2009. The effect of the crisis had been very uneven among Russian regions because of their differences in industrial structure inherited from the Soviet times. We find that the regions that specialize in producing capital goods, as well as those depending on oil and gas, had a more substantial income decline during the crisis. The variation in the industrial structure allows creating an instrument for the change in income. After instrumenting average regional income, we find that the effect of income on generalized social trust (the share of respondents saying that most people can be trusted) is statistically and economically significant. Controlling for conventional determinants of trust, we show that 10 percent decrease in income is associated with 5 percentage point decrease in trust. Given that the average level of trust in Russia is 25%, this magnitude is substantial. We also find that post-crisis economic recovery did not restore pre-crisis trust level. Trust recovered only in those regions where the 2009 decline in trust was small. In the regions with the large decline in trust during the crisis, trust in 2014 was still 10 percentage points below its pre-crisis level.

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In this paper Sergei Guriev focuses on the postcrisis slowdown, which mushroomed into the current crisis. The goal is to explain the origins of the slowdown, understand its political implications, and analyze its interaction with the 2014 crisis in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

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This paper analyzes the determination of global equity portfolios and stock returns in the context of imperfectly integrated stock markets. We consider a continuous-time, two-country endowment economy, where the level of financial integration is captured by a proportional tax on foreign dividends. Despite the investor heterogeneity induced by this tax, we obtain approximate closed-form expressions for asset prices, and characterize equity holdings and the joint process followed by country-level stock returns in equilibrium. Our model is consistent with a broad range of empirical findings on international financial integration. When the (endogenous) cross-country return correlation is high, small frictions in equity markets can generate a substantial home bias in portfolios. In the baseline version of our model, the cross-country return correlation is driven by the fundamental correlation and portfolio rebalancing. In a two-good extension of the model, the adjustment of relative good prices can generate a high stock return correlation even for a low level of fundamental correlation, magnifying the impact of the financial friction on portfolios. We assess the quantitative performance of the model in a calibration exercise using data from G7 countries.

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Using aggregate data on bilateral cross-border equity holdings, we investigate whether investors correctly hedge their over-exposure to domestic risk (the well-known equity home bias) by investing in foreign stock markets that have low correlation with their home stock market. To deal with the endogeneity of stock return correlations, we instrument current correlations with past correlations. Controlling for many determinants of international portfolios, we find that, all else equal, investors do tilt their foreign holdings towards countries, which offer better diversification opportunities. The diversification motive that we uncover is stronger for source countries exhibiting a higher level of home bias.

in Annals of Statistics Publié en 2016
BONHOMME Stéphane
JOCHMANS Koen
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A constructive proof of identification of multilinear decompositions of multiway arrays is presented. It can be applied to show identification in a variety of multivariate latent structures. Examples are finite-mixture models and hidden Markov models. The key step to show identification is the joint diagonalization of a set of matrices in the same non-orthogonal basis. An estimator of the latent-structure model may then be based on a sample version of this joint-diagonalization problem. Algorithms are available for computation and we derive distribution theory. We further develop asymptotic theory for orthogonal-series estimators of component densities in mixture models and emission densities in hidden Markov models.

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We consider collective decision problems given by a profile of single-peakedpreferences defined over the real line and a set of pure public facilities to be located on the line. In this context, Bochet and Gordon (2012) provide a large class of priority rules based on efficiency, object-population monotonicity and sovereignty. Each such rule is described by a fixed priority ordering among interest groups. We show that any priority rule which treats agents symmetrically - anonymity - , respects some form of coherence across collective decision problems - reinforcement - and only depends on peak information - peak-only -, is a weighted majoritarian rule. Each such rule defines priorities based on the relative size of the interest groups and specific weights attached to locations. We give an explicit account of the richness of this class of rules.

Directeur de la thèse MARTIN Philippe Publié en 2013-12
GRJEBINE Thomas
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Cette thèse comprend quatre essais en macroéconomie internationale et théorie monétaire. Elle est constituée de deux parties. Les deux premiers chapitres, coécrits avec François Geerolf, étudient les conséquences macroéconomiques des cycles immobiliers sur les comptes courants (chapitre 1) et sur les dynamiques de l'emploi (chapitre 2). La seconde partie de cette thèse s'intéresse aux conséquences des récentes transformations intervenues dans les systèmes bancaires sur les mécanismes de la création monétaire. Ces transformations semblent en effet conduire à une privatisation de la monnaie. Le chapitre 3 étudie empiriquement la réalité d'une telle privatisation. Je développe dans le chapitre 4 un modèle pour analyser les conséquences de ces transformations sur la création monétaire et sur les mécanismes de propagation du risque.

Publié en 2011
WINANT Pablo
REY Hélène
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We propose a simple quantitative method to linearize around the risky steady state of a small open economy. Unlike when the deterministic steady state is used, the net foreign asset position is well defined. We allow for stochastic income and stochastic interest rate.

Publié en 2014-09
CHOUKHMANE Taha
JIN Keyu
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We investigate how the `one-child policy' has impacted China's household saving rate and human capital in the last three decades. In a life cycle model with endogenous fertility, intergenerational transfers and human capital accumulation, we show how fertility restrictions provide incentives for households to increase their offspring's education and to accumulate financial wealth in expectation of lower support from their children. Our quantitative OLG model calibrated to household level data shows that the policy significantly increased the human capital of the only child generation and can account for a third to 60% of the rise in aggregate savings. Equally important, it can capture much of the distinct shift in the level and shape of the age-saving profile observed from micro-level data estimates. Using the birth of twins (born under the one child policy) as an exogenous deviation from the policy, we provide an empirical out-of-sample check to our quantitative results; estimates on savings and education decisions are decidedly close between model and data.

in Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Publié en 2009-06
COEURDACIER Nicolas
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This paper analyzes the determinants of cross-border asset trade on cross-country data and a Swedish data set. We focus our analysis on the impact of the euro for the determinants of trade in bonds, equity and banking assets. With the help of a theoretical model, we disentangle the different effects that the euro may have on cross-border asset holdings for both euro zone countries and countries outside of the euro zone. We find evidence that the euro implies 1) a unilateral financial liberalization which makes it cheaper for all countries to buy euro zone assets. For bonds and equity holdings, this translates into approximately 14% and 17% lower transaction costs; 2) a preferential financial liberalization which on top of the previous effect lowers transaction costs inside the euro zone by approximately 17% and 10% for bonds and equity respectively; 3) a diversion effect due to the fact that lower transaction costs inside the euro zone entail euro countries to purchase less equity from outside the euro zone. Our empirical analysis also suggests that the elasticity of substitution between bonds inside the euro zone is three times higher than between bonds denominated in different currencies.

Directeur de la thèse COEURDACIER Nicolas Publié en 2017-03
BELLET Clément
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Cette thèse étudie la façon dont l’inégalité intra et inter groupes affecte le comportement du consommateur et son bien-être via des effets de comparaisons sociales. L’objectif est une meilleure compréhension d’un certain nombre de phénomènes sociaux largement délaissés par la théorie classique du consommateur. Par exemple, dans quelle mesure les déterminants visibles d’une identité sociale tels que le groupe ethnique ou la caste affectent les comportements de consommation des ménages ? Comment comprendre le sur-endettement des plus pauvres malgré la persistante stagnation de leur revenu réel ? Ou encore, la consommation de biens de luxes devient-elle nécessaire au sein de sociétés plus inégalitaires et que nous apprend ce phénomène sur les limites sociales de la croissance économique ? Pour ce faire, la thèse incorpore d’importants résultats issus des travaux d’économie comportementale - en particulier s’agissant des préférences sociales et de l’évaluation subjective du bien-être - à la théorie du consommateur et de l’épargne. Le chapitre 1 développe un modèle de consommation relative qui tient compte des effets de comparaison au cours du temps et entre biens. Les chapitres suivant identifient ces effets à partir de données d’enquêtes représentatives de la population et de larges bases de données obtenues via des méthodes de web-scrapping. Le chapitre 2 se concentre sur l’endettement immobilier aux Etats-Unis lorsque les ménages se préoccupent de la taille relative de leur maison. Les chapitres 3 et 4 analysent la composante sociale des dépenses en Inde et leur implication en terme de malnutrition en utilisant des méthodes d’estimations standards et structurelles.

Cet article explore la diversité des configurations locales du parc de logements locatifs sociaux. Nous réalisons une analyse quantitative et descriptive en nous intéressant aux caractéristiques des logements, au profil des locataires, aux dynamiques récentes de production et aux configurations d’acteurs intervenant dans leur gestion. Nous utilisons principalement les données du Répertoire du Parc Locatif Social (SOeS, 2013) et du Recensement de la population (Insee, 2013) pour construire une typologie des communes de l’unité urbaine de Paris. Notre approche localisée et systématique de l’offre de logement social fait ressortir dix types de parcs sociaux. Elle montre d’abord que le logement social n’est pas un habitat uniforme et n’accueille pas une population homogène. Outre les contrastes liés aux caractéristiques des logements, largement hérités des politiques passées (1960-1970), il ressort que la diversité actuelle des parcs sociaux tient aux types d’acteurs impliqués dans leur construction et dans la sélection des locataires. La pluralité de leurs objectifs, de leurs intérêts et de leurs pratiques alimente de forts contrastes dans la mobilisation de cet habitat à l’échelle locale, et ce même si les politiques du logement restent fortement centralisées en France

Publié en 2015-12
HALKET Jonathan
NESHEIM Lars
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Using the English Housing Survey, we estimate a supply side selection model of the allocation of properties to the owner-occupied and rental sectors. We find that location, structure and unobserved quality are important for understanding housing prices, rents and selection. Structural characteristics and unobserved quality are important for selection. Location is not. Accounting for selection is important for estimates of rent-to-price ratios and can explain some puzzling correlations between rent-to-price ratios and homeownership rates. We interpret this as strong evidence in favor of contracting frictions in the rental market likely related to housing maintenance.

in The Global Macro Economy and Finance Publié en 2012-10
STIGLITZ Joseph
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Dans la foulée du Rapport Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi, nous proposons ici de nouvelles réflexions sur le progrès social et le bien-être, qui annoncent de nouveaux travaux et de nouvelles avancées. À partir de quelques exemples simples empruntés à l'actualité, nous montrons d'abord comment notre système statistique actuel, du fait à la fois des lacunes des indicateurs existants et de l'absence d'alternatives crédibles, peut implicitement conduire à des conclusions de politique publique entachées d'erreur. Ceci importe au plus haut point car ce que nous mesurons affecte ce que nous faisons. Réduire le bien-être en vue d'augmenter quelque imparfaite mesure de la richesse matérielle que ce soit donne lieu à des politiques totalement erronées. Nous portons ensuite notre attention, selon cette même perspective critique des indicateurs et instruments de mesure actuels, sur des questions essentielles du débat économique contemporain telles que l'effet sur le chômage de la flexibilité des marchés du travail ou encore l'impact sur la croissance du degré d'ouverture financière des économies. Notre évaluation des mesures existantes de bien-être nous laisse convaincus à cet égard que, trop souvent, elles ont conduit les pays à s'orienter dans de mauvaises directions, ou à tout le moins à adopter des politiques dont les bénéfices sont très discutables. Nous montrons en somme qu'il existe des possibilités considérables d'améliorer les indicateurs de bien-être et d'en développer de nouveaux pour mieux servir les buts collectifs des sociétés humaines.

In February 2008, the President of the French Republic, Nicholas Sarkozy, unsatisfied with the present state of statistical information about the economy and the society, asked, Joseph Stiglitz (President of the Commission), Amartya Sen (Advisor) and Jean Paul Fitoussi (Coordinator) to create a Commission, subsequently called “The Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress” (CMEPSP). The Commission’s aim has been to identify the limits of GDP as an indicator of economic performance and social progress, including the problems with its measurement, to consider what additional information might be required for the production of more relevant indicators of social progress, to assess the feasibility of alternative measurement tools, and to discuss how to present the statistical information in an appropriate way (...).

Publié en 2010
MCCORMICK Roger
DE LUCA Valerio
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La profonde crisi morale ed economica ha evidenziato l'esigenza di un investimento più deciso e coraggioso nel campo del sapere e della prassi, quale via per rispondere alle numerose sfide aperte e per preparare le giovani generazioni a costruire un futuro migliore. Occorre allora lanciare una sfida educativa per formare le nuove classi dirigenti. Questo libro rappresenta una riflessione sui valori, le regole e le pratiche di business al fine di raggiungere un consenso etico di fondo su cui orientare un nuovo modello di sviluppo economico e sociale al servizio dell'uomo, attento all esigenze di giustizia e solidarietà, rispettoso della dignità umana e promotore di una libertà integrale, creativa e responsabile.

in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Publié en 2009-02
AUER Raphaël
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This paper extends the Mussa and Rosen (1978) model of quality pricing under perfect competition. Exporters sell goods of different qualities to consumers who have heterogeneous preferences for quality. Production is subject to decreasing returns to scale and, therefore, supply and the toughness of competition react to cost changes brought about by exchange rate fluctuations. First, we predict that exchange rate shocks are imperfectly passed through into prices. Second, prices of low-quality goods are more sensitive to exchange rate shocks than prices of high-quality goods. Third, in response to an exchange rate appreciation, the composition of exports shifts toward higher quality and more expensive goods. We test these predictions using highly disaggregated price and quantity U.S. import data and find only weak empirical evidence in support of our theory.

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