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  • TOUZE Vincent (29)
  • LE CACHEUX Jacques (14)
  • AGLIETTA Michel (14)
  • JUILLARD Michel (14)
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La « grande récession » amorcée en 2008 a plongé l'économie dans une stagnation durable avec un fort chômage, une production dépréciée et une très faible inflation. Cette crise dont la durée exceptionnelle est difficilement explicable par les outils théoriques de la macroéconomie contemporaine invite à enrichir l'analyse fondamentale. Conceptualiser la stagnation séculaire repose alors sur l'introduction d'imperfections de marché telles qu'un rationnement du crédit sur le marché financier ainsi que des rigidités nominales sur le marché du travail. L'équilibre obtenu se caractérise par un sous-emploi des facteurs de production (chômage élevé, faible accumulation de capital) associé à une baisse des prix (déflation) et une politique monétaire inactive car contrainte par la non négativité du taux directeur. En régime de stagnation séculaire, l'impact des politiques économiques s'en trouve affecté et de nombreuses propriétés keynésiennes apparaissent : impact déflationniste des politiques d'offre, politique monétaire conventionnelle inopérante et effet positif de la dépense publique quoique limité par une éviction de l'investissement privé.

In sharp contrast with the buoyant economic dynamism observed in most other areas of the world, slow growth and persistently high unemployment have been characterizing the European Union (EU) economy for a number of years. This report investigates some of the possible causes of this poor macroeconomic performance, analyzing in depth the hypotheses of technological backwardness and of inappropriate economic policies, as major determinants of potential growth. It then proposes some contrasted scenarios for economic and social policies in the EU and explores, with the help of the INGENUE, overlappinggenerations, general-equilibrium model of the world economy, some of the possible long-term evolutions of economic growth and other macroeconomic indicators for various scenarios. In particular, we look at the aggregate economic consequences over the next decades of various ways in which the combination of policies being implemented and the recent enlargement of the European Union may affect the growth potential of the area. More specifically, among the many possible changes that may be forthcoming with this new EU enlargement, we simulate the changes in the time-path of macroeconomic variables resulting from the achievement of the “Lisbon strategy” objective of higher employment rates in the EU, from faster technological convergence of Eastern European economies towards Western European levels of total factor productivity (TFP), and from larger migration flows from Eastern European new members to the EU-15 countries. Although the consequences may in some cases be quite large for the enlarged EU economy, the induced effects on the rest of the world are, in all cases, relatively small, due to the small weight of Eastern Europe in the world economy and population.

This paper analyses how the economic, demographic and institutional differences between two regions -one developed and called the North, the other emerging and called the South- drive the international capital flows and explain the world economic equilibrium. To this end, we develop a simple two-period OLG model. We compare closed-economy and open-economy equilibria. We consider that openness facilitates convergence of South’s characteristics towards North’s. We examine successively the consequences of a technological catching-up, a demographic transitionand an institutional convergence of pension schemes. We determine the analytical solution of the dynamics of the world interest rate and deduce the evolution of the current accounts. These analytical results are completed by numerical simulations. They show that the technological catching-up alone leads to a welfare loss for the North in reason of capital flows towards the South. If we add to this Örst change a demographic transition, the capital demand is reduced in the South whereas its saving increases in reason of a higher life expectancy. These two effects contribute to reduce the capital flows from the North to the South. Finally, an institutional convergence of the two pension schemes reduces the South’s saving rate which increases the capital flow from the North to the South.

in Revue d’économie politique Publié en 2001
JUILLARD Michel
FAYOLLE Jacky
AGLIETTA Michel
CHATEAU Jean
LE GARREC Gilles
BORGY Vladimir
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in Démographie et économie Sous la direction de AGLIETTA Michel Publié en 2002-03-01
JUILLARD Michel
FAYOLLE Jacky
CHATEAU Jean
LE GARREC Gilles
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Les perspectives démographiques françaises qui ont été retracées dans la première partie doivent être replacées dans un contexte mondial qui se caractérise par une certaine diversité des évolutions attendues au moins à l'horizon du prochain demi-siècle. Concernant les conséquences économiques du vieillissement en France, il n'est pas indifférent qu'il se produise dans un tel contexte mondial où tous les pays ne sont pas dans la même situation démographique. C'est pourquoi on utilisera dans cette partie un modèle multinational, INGENUE, qui s'appuie sur le scénario central des projections démographiques réalisées par l'ONU (...).

Publié en 2001-12
JUILLARD Michel
FAYOLLE Jacky
AGLIETTA Michel
CHATEAU Jean
LE GARREC Gilles
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This paper presents some results of the computable, general-equilibrium, multiregional overlapping generations model INGENUE. The purpose of this research is to analyse the issues relating to wealth accumulation and alternative pension reforms in the context of global finance. Hence it focuses on the international capital flows that ought to be induced by differential aging of the various regions of the world, as depicted by the UN demographic projections. The first section exhibits the stylized facts which suggest that a world equilibrium approach is appropriate and leads to an analysis of the convergence processes. The second section lays out the analytical structure of the world model and detail our choices of calibrating. The third section presents a baseline scenario of the world economy in the XXIth century. The fourth and final section analyses European public pension reforms scenarios.

Departing from mainstream economics, surveys …rst show that individuals do care about fairness in their demand for redistribution. They also show that the cultural environment in which individuals grow up a¤ects heir preferences about redistribution. Including these two components of the demand for redistribution, we propose in this article a mechanism of cultural transmission of the taste for fairness. Consistently with the process of socialization, the young preferences depend on collective choices through observation and imitation. Observation during childhood of redistributive policies far from what is perceived as fair results then in a lower taste for fairness. As a consequence, the model exhibits a multiplicity of history- dependent steady states which may account for the huge di¤erence of redistribution observed between Europe and the United States.

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When studying attitudes towards redistribution, surveys show that individuals do care about fairness. They also show that the cultural environment in which people grow up affects their preferences about redistribution. In this article we include these two components of the demand for redistribution in order to develop a mechanism for the cultural transmission of the concern for fairness. The preferences of the young are partially shaped through the observation and imitation of others’ choices. More specifically, observing during childhood how adults have collectively failed to implement fair redistributive policies lowers the concern during adulthood for fairness or the moral cost of not supporting fair taxation. Based on this mechanism, the model exhibits a multiplicity of history-dependent stationary states that may account for the huge and persistent differences in redistribution observed between Europe and the United States. It also explains why immigrants from countries with a preference for greater redistribution continue to support higher redistribution in their destination country.

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When studying attitudes towards redistribution, surveys show that individuals do care about fairness. They also show that the cultural environment in which people grow up affects their preferences about redistribution. In this article we include these two components of the demand for redistribution in order to develop a mechanism for the cultural transmission of the concern for fairness. The preferences of the young are partially shaped through the observation and imitation of others’ choices. More specifically, observing during childhood how adults have collectively failed to implement fair redistributive policies lowers the concern during adulthood for fairness or the moral cost of not supporting fair taxation. Based on this mechanism, the model exhibits a multiplicity of history-dependent stationary states that may account for the huge and persistent differences in redistribution observed between Europe and the United States. It also explains why immigrants from countries with a preference for greater redistribution continue to support higher redistribution in their destination country.

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