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  • HEAD Keith (24)
  • MARTIN Philippe (17)
  • THOENIG Mathias (12)
  • MAYNERIS Florian (10)
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  • Article (39)
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in Review of World Economics Publication date 2018-08
MALGOUYRES Clément
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We investigate the role that labor costs hold in exporters’ performance. To do so, we exploit a large-scale French reform that granted most firms a tax credit proportional to the wagebill of their employees paid below a given threshold. This policy effectively translated into a cut in labor cost whose magnitude varies depending on firm-specific wage structures. We use the predicted treatment intensity based on pre-reform composition of the labor force as an instrument for the actual policy-induced firm-level change in labor costs. Although our point estimates are consistent with commonly estimated firm-level trade elasticities combined with reasonable labor shares in total costs, coefficients are found to be very noisy, suggesting lack of robust evidence of a causal effect of the policy. We discuss several potential explanations for our results as well as their implications.

This paper estimates the role of country/variety comparative advantage in the decision to offshore assembly of more than 2000 models of 197 car brands headquartered in 23 countries. While offshoring in the car industry has risen from 2000 to 2016, the top five offshoring brands account for half the car assembly relocated to low wage countries. We show that the decision to offshore a particular car model depends on two types of cost (dis)advantage of the home country relative to foreign locations. The first type, the assembly costs common to all models, is estimated via a structural triadic gravity equation. The second effect, model-level comparative advantage, is an interaction between proxies for the model's skill and capital intensity and headquarter country's abundance in these factors.

in American Economic Review Publication date 2019
HEAD Keith
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Following the 2016 Leave vote in the referendum on UK membership in the EU and the election of Donald Trump, trade agreements have entered a period of great instability. To predict the impact of possible disruptions to existing arrangements requires counterfactual analysis that takes into account the complex set of factors influencing the production and marketing strategies of multinational corporations. We estimate a model of multinational decisionmaking in the car industry. This model predicts the production reallocation and consumer surplus consequences of changes in tariffs and non-tariff barriers induced by US-led protectionism, Brexit, Trans-Pacific and Trans-Atlantic integration agreements.

in Economie & prévision Publication date 2002
HEAD Keith
MAYER Thierry
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Nous utilisons la méthodologie des effets frontières pour étudier les fondements empiriques des inquiétudes liées à la construction d'une "Forteresse Europe". Nous étudions dans quelle mesure les importations en provenance des États-Unis et du Japon d'un pays européen représentatif ont été réellement soumises à des contraintes plus importantes que les importations en provenance d'autres pays européens en prenant le commerce intra-national comme niveau de référence. Nos résultats font état d'une augmentation relativement importante de la difficulté d'accès au marché européen pour les producteurs japonais et américains au cours des années 80. Cette évolution contraste assez nettement avec la baisse graduelle des effets frontières à l'intérieur de l'Union Européenne.

in The Review of Economics & Statistics Publication date 2004-11
HEAD Keith
MAYER Thierry
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This paper develops a theoretical model of location choice under imperfect competition to formalize the notion that firms prefer to locate “where the markets are.” The profitability of a location depends on a term that weights demand in all locations by accessibility. Using a sample of Japanese firms’ choices of regions within European countries, we compare the theoretically derived measure of market potential with the standard form used by geographers. Our results show that market potential matters for location choice but cannot account entirely for the tendency of firms in the same industry to agglomerate.

in Regional science and urban economics Publication date 2006-09
HEAD Keith
MAYER Thierry
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In new economic geography models, the spatial distribution of demand is a key determinant of economic outcomes. In one strand, it is argued that higher demand gives rise to a more than proportionate increase in production, a result known as the home market effect. Another strand emphasizes the effects of market sizes on factor prices. We highlight the theoretical connection between these two strands. Using data on 57 European regions, we show how wages and employment respond to differentials in what we call real market potential, a discounted sum of demands derived from the theory.

in Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics. Volume 4. Cities and Geography Publication date 2004
HEAD Keith
MAYER Thierry
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This chapter examines empirical strategies that have been or could be used to evaluate the importance of agglomeration and trade models. This theoretical approach, widely known as “New Economic Geography” (NEG), emphasizes the interaction between transport costs and firm-level scale economies as a source of agglomeration. NEG focuses on forward and backward trade linkages as causes of observed spatial concentration of economic activity. We survey the existing literature, organizing the papers we discuss under the rubric of five interesting and testable hypotheses that emerge from NEG theory. We conclude the chapter with an overall assessment of the empirical support for NEG and suggest some directions for future research.

in Journal of Regional Science Publication date 2008-02
HEAD Keith
MAYER Thierry
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Using data on the geographic distribution of names in France, we investigate the social transmission of parental preferences. Drawing on recent work on nonmarket interactions, we develop a linear discrete choice model that relates choices made in one location to those made in nearby areas. We explain the shares of parents that give their children Saint, Arabic, and American-type names. We also examine the effect of distance between locations on differences in naming patterns. We find that the importance of geographic distance is declining over time while differences in class and national origins have increasing explanatory power.

in Journal of International Economic Law Publication date 2005-05
COMBES Pierre-Philippe
LAFOURCADE Miren
MAYER Thierry
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Using theory-grounded estimations of trade flow equations, this paper investigates the role that business and social networks play in shaping trade between French regions. The bilateral intensity of networks is quantified using the financial structure and location of French firms and bilateral stocks of migrants. Compared to a situation without networks, migrants are shown to double bilateral trade flows, while networks of firms multiply trade flows by as much as four in some specifications. Finally, taking network effects into account divides the estimation of the impact of transport costs and of the effect of administrative borders by around three.

Thesis Advisor MAYER Thierry Publication date 2016-12
UMANA DAJUD Camilo
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Cette thèse porte sur le rôle joué par les coûts du commerce dans la détermination des flux commerciaux. Les deux derniers chapitres examinent le rôle des coûts commerciaux non conventionnels tandis que les deux premiers évaluent l'impact des coûts plus communément associés aux échanges à l'intérieur d'un pays ainsi qu'entre différents pays. Le Chapitre 1 est le résultat d'un effort conjoint avec Jules Hugot. Dans ce chapitre nous estimons l'élasticité du commerce à la distance et son évolution depuis 1870 en utilisant quatre épisodes importants de l'histoire du commerce international: les ouvertures des canaux de Suez et de Panama et les postérieures fermetures et réouvertures du premier. Dans le chapitre 2, j'étudie l'effet d'une réduction des coûts de transport internes à un pays. Pour pallier à l'endogénéité du placement des infrastructures, j'exploite l'expérience naturelle fournie par l'ouverture des routes maritimes reliant les côtes est et ouest du Canada à travers le Canal de Panama. Le chapitre 3 documente l'impact négatif des visas de voyage sur les flux commerciaux bilatéraux. Afin d'estimer leur effet causal, j'exploite une expérience naturelle fournie par les modifications introduites à l'Annexe I des Accords de Schengen. Je montre que l'introduction ultérieure de visas pour entrer dans l'espace Schengen a considérablement réduit les flux commerciaux. Dans le chapitre 4, j'examine empiriquement l'impact des différences politiques sur les flux commerciaux. En suivant la représentation du spectre politique d'Eysenck, je montre que la distance séparant les pays sur les différentes dimensions de cet spectre politique a un impact négatif robuste sur les échanges bilatéraux.

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