Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different - Sciences Po Accéder directement au contenu
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2019

Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different

Résumé

This paper highlights the anomalous characteristics of the Euro Area ‘twin crises’ by contrasting the aggregate macroeconomic dynamics in the period 2009-2013 with the business cycle fluctuations of the previous decades. We report three novel stylised facts. First, the contraction in output was marked by an anomalous downfall in private investment and an increase in households’ savings, while consumption and unemployment followed their historical relation with GDP. Second, households’ and financial corporations’ debts, and house prices deviated from their precrisis trends, while non-financial corporations’ debt followed historical regularities. Third, the jumps in the public deficit GDP and debt-GDP ratios in 2008-2009 were unprecedented and so was the fiscal consolidation that followed. Our analysis points to the financial nature of the crisis as a likely explanation for these facts. Importantly, the ‘anomalous’ increase in public debt is in large part explained by extraordinary measures in support of the financial sector, which show up in the stock-flow adjustments and reveal a key interaction between the fiscal and the financial sectors.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
wp2019-11-financial-and-fiscal-interaction-in-the-euro-area-crisis-acaruso.pdf.pdf (1.04 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-03403269 , version 1 (26-10-2021)

Identifiants

Citer

Alberto Caruso, Lucrezia Reichlin, Giovanni Ricco. Financial and fiscal interaction in the euro area crisis: this time was different. 2019. ⟨hal-03403269⟩
43 Consultations
36 Téléchargements

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More