The magnitude of euro area misalignments in 2017 - Sciences Po Accéder directement au contenu
Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2018

The magnitude of euro area misalignments in 2017

Résumé

Using real equilibrium exchange rate modelling, we quantify adjustments within the euro area compatible with a current account equilibrium and a stabilisation of the net external positions of t he euro area countries. Our estimates indicate that the imbalances have shrunk since 2008, but substantial misalignments remain, and the average (absolute) mismatch relative to the euro price level amounts to 10% in 2017. The imbalances now weigh on the external equilibrium of the euro area and are increasing the risk of a medium -term appreciation in the euro. These results are robust to hypotheses on the horizon of adjustment, potential growth, output gaps and real interest rates.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
wp2018-45-the-magnitude-of-euro-area-misalignements-bducoudre.pdf.pdf (1.14 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

hal-03389334 , version 1 (20-10-2021)

Identifiants

Citer

Bruno Ducoudre, Xavier Timbeau, Sébastien Villemot. The magnitude of euro area misalignments in 2017. 2018. ⟨hal-03389334⟩
23 Consultations
20 Téléchargements

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More