Type
Article
Titre
Modeling the future evolution of the virtual water trade network
Dans
Advances in water resources
Auteur(s)
FRACASSO Andrea - Department of Economics [Università di Trento] (Auteur)
RICCABONII Massimo - School for advanced studies Lucca (Auteur)
SARTORI Martina - (Auteur)
SCHIAVO Stefano - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Auteur)
Éditeur
Elsevier B.V.
Volume
110
Pages
538 - 548 p.
ISSN
03091708
Mots clés
Virtual water trade, Complex networks, Fitness model, Agricultural production, Preferential attachment, Gravity model, Water stress
Résumé
EN
The paper investigates how the topological features of the virtual water (VW) network and the size of the associated VW flows are likely to change over time, under different socio-economic and climate scenarios. We combine two alternative models of network formation –a stochastic and a fitness model, used to describe the structure of VW flows- with a gravity model of trade to predict the intensity of each bilateral flow. This combined approach is superior to existing methodologies in its ability to replicate the observed features of VW trade. The insights from the models are used to forecast future VW flows in 2020 and 2050, under different climatic scenarios, and compare them with future water availability. Results suggest that the current trend of VW exports is not sustainable for all countries. Moreover, our approach highlights that some VW importers might be exposed to “imported water stress” as they rely heavily on imports from countries whose water use is unsustainable.

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