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Thesis Advisor WEIL Philippe Publication date 2012-09
ISORE Marlène
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Cette thèse comprend trois articles en macroéconomie financière. L’approche méthodologique commune aux deux premiers est l’application des modèles d’appariement aux marchés financiers. Le troisième contribue à l’étude des événements rares. Le premier article démontre qu’une contagion financière internationale est susceptible d’émerger malgré un régime de taux de change flexible et une substituabilité entre les actifs financiers nationaux et étrangers, contrairement aux résultats standards sous ces deux conditions. A l’inverse des contractions monétaires traditionnelles, des chocs non-walrasiens de coûts de capitalisation bancaire génèrent une contagion internationale. Le deuxième article étudie le rôle du comportement des banquiers dans le défaut bancaire. Le modèle tient compte de l’hétérogénéité des emprunteurs et incorpore une asymétrie d’information au détriment des détenteurs de capitaux. Un aléa moral survient à la suite d’un choc de productivité : les banquiers tendent à choisir les investissements plus rentables à court terme mais dont le risque est supporté par les investisseurs. Ce mécanisme amplifie le rationnement du crédit dans l’économie et alimente le défaut bancaire. Le troisième article étudie l’impact macroéconomique d’une variation de la probabilité d’un événement rare dans un modèle néo-keynésien. Une hausse de la probabilité suffit notamment à générer une récession sans réelle occurrence du « désastre » et produit, en concurrence monopolistique, des réactions de la consommation et des salaires cohérentes. Nous proposons ainsi un cadre d’analyse des effets dynamiques des événements rares, préalable à l’investigation du rôle de la politique monétaire.

Publication date 2012-02 Collection Document de travail : 2012-03
BURDA Michael
HAMERMESH Daniel
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Time-diary data from 27 countries show a negative relationship between GDP per capita and gender differences in total work—for pay and at home. In rich non-Catholic countries men and women average about the same amount of total work. Survey results show scholars and the general public believe that women work more. Widespread average equality does not arise from gender differences in the price of time, intra-family bargaining or spousal complementarity. Several theories, including ones based on social norms, might explain these findings and are consistent with evidence from the World Values Surveys and microeconomic data from Australia and Germany.

in Revue de l'OFCE Publication date 2011-04
CAFFET Jean-Christophe
DE MONTCHALIN Amélie
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Les prévisions occupent une place particulière dans le débat public en économie. Elles sont généralement considérées comme des prédictions, qualifiées fréquemment d’optimistes ou de pessimistes, comme si elles dépendaient de l’humeur des équipes qui les réalisent. Certes, en un sens, la prévision est un art tant elle dépend des signes précurseurs que nous livre le présent, de l’interprétation des évolutions en cours, de la capacité des économistes de sélectionner les informations pertinentes parmi celles, multiples, dont l’intérêt n’est qu’anecdotique. Mais elle est surtout une science puisqu’elle consiste à déduire des informations dont on dispose sur le présent une vision de l’avenir. Elle ne peut être formulée en dehors d’un cadre général d’interprétation, c’est-à-dire d’une théorie qui met en relation les informations que l’on privilégie et les variables que l’on cherche à prévoir. Parmi ces informations, certaines, cruciales, ne sont pas vraiment disponibles car, pour l'essentiel, elles dépendent de décisions à venir et qu'il n'existe pas vraiment de théorie permettant de déduire des données existantes ce que seront ces décisions. Il faut donc formuler des hypothèses alternatives et retenir celles qui paraissent les plus vraisemblables. Dès lors, les erreurs de prévision peuvent avoir au moins trois origines : une insuffisance d'information sur le présent, une mauvaise spécification théorique, la non réalisation de certaines hypothèses. De surcroît, il existe une incertitude irréductible au sens où certains événements sont imprévisibles, alors même que leur conséquence sur l'activité économique est déterminante. Voilà pourquoi les chiffres associés à une prévision sont éminemment fragiles, qu'ils doivent être considérés comme conditionnels aux hypothèses que l'on formule, aux données dont on dispose et au cadre théorique dans lequel on raisonne. Il est donc nécessaire que les prévisions réalisées par l'OFCE soient publiées en même temps qu'un débat autour de ces prévisions. Cela offre le double avantage de rendre explicite le doute inhérent à tout exercice de prévision et de participer au pluralisme nécessaire à l'indépendance et au sérieux des études économiques. Les prévisions de l'OFCE, pour rigoureuses qu'elles soient, ne sont pas un exercice mécanique au terme duquel la vérité serait révélée mais une " histoire " raisonnée, éclairée par l'analyse économique, d'un futur incertain. Il faut donc à la fois souligner l'importance des raisonnements économiques qui la guident et en comprendre d'emblée les limites, pour ne point s'en servir comme d'un argument d'autorité à l'instar de ce qui est trop fréquemment le cas.

in Review of Finance Publication date 2011-01
RESTOY Fernando
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Arguing that total consumer wealth is unobservable, we invert the (approximate) consumption function to reconstruct, in a world with Kreps-Porteus generalized isoelastic preferences, i) the wealth that supports the agents’ observed consumption as an optimal outcome and ii) the rate of return on the consumers’ wealth portfolio. This allows us to (approximately) price assets solely as a function of their payoffs and of consumption — in both homoskedastic or heteroskedastic environments. We compare implied equilibrium returns on the wealth portfolio to observed stock market returns and gauge whether the stock market is a good proxy for unobserved aggregate wealth.

in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Publication date 2009-03
KIMBALL Miles
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This paper examines how aversion to risk and aversion to intertemporal substitution determine the strength of the precautionary saving motive in a two-period model with Selden/Kreps–Porteus preferences. For small risks, we derive a measure of the strength of the precautionary saving motive that generalizes the concept of “prudence” introduced by Kimball (1990b). For large risks, we show that decreasing absolute risk aversion guarantees that the precautionary saving motive is stronger than risk aversion, regardless of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Holding risk preferences fixed, the extent to which the precautionary saving motive is stronger than risk aversion increases with the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. We derive sufficient conditions for a change in risk preferences alone to increase the strength of the precautionary saving motive and for the strength of the precautionary saving motive to decline with wealth.Within the class of constant elasticity of intertemporal substitution, constant-relative risk aversion utility functions, these conditions are also necessary.

in Journal of Economic Perspectives Publication date 2008
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Paul Samuelson's (1958) overlapping generations model has turned 50. Seldom has so simple a model been so influential. The paper, in spite of its ripe age, still elicits wonder. Starting from the uncontroversial observation that “we live in a world where new generations are always coming along” Samuelson built a model that violates the credo of the first fundamental welfare theorem with which we still inculcate undergraduates 50 years later. According to Samuelson, all is not necessarily well in the best of market economies: with overlapping generations, even absent the usual suspects such as distortions and market failures, a competitive equilibrium need not be Pareto efficient. Worst of all, this failure of the first welfare theorem in an overlapping generations model occurs in a framework that is, in many ways, more plausible and realistic than the world of agents living synchronous and finite existences in which the theorem is usually proved. Like Mona Lisa's enigmatic smile, the mysterious welfare properties of the overlapping generations model are, to a significant extent, responsible for its popularity—along with the many economic issues it has illuminated in the last half-century. I take it as my brief in this celebratory paper to provide, after a short exposition of the main results of the overlapping generations model under certainty, an explanation of why the welfare properties of the overlapping generations model differ so much from the canonical Arrow–Debreu framework and to review, in a deliberately nonencyclopedic mode, a few striking applications and extensions of Samuelson's deceptively straightforward model.

in Working Hours and Job Sharing in the EU and USA : Are Europeans Lazy? Or Americans Crazy? Edited by BURDA Michael, BOERI Tito, KRAMARZ Francis, BURDA Michael Publication date 2008
HAMERMESH Daniel
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Using time-diary data from 27 countries, we demonstrate a negative relationship between real GDP per capita and the female-male difference in total work time—the sum of work for pay and work at home. We also show that in rich non-Catholic countries on four continents men and women do the same amount of total work on average. Our survey results demonstrate that labor economists, macroeconomists, sociologists and the general public consistently believe that women perform more total work. The facts do not arise from gender differences in the price of time nor from differences in intra-family bargaining: Gender equality is not associated with marital status, and most of the variance in gender total work differences arises from within-couple differences. A theory of social norms could account for within-education group and within-region gender differences being smaller than inter-group differences. It is consistent with cross-national evidence from the World Values Surveys and various sets of microeconomic data.

in ICFAI Journal of Monetary Economics Publication date 2007-11
MARCET Albert
OBIOLS-HOMS Francesc
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Endogenous labor supply decisions are introduced in an equilibrium model of limited insurance against idiosyncratic shocks. Unlike in the standard case with exogenous labor (e.g. [Aiyagari, S.R., 1994. Uninsured idiosyncratic risk and aggregate saving. Quarterly Journal of Economics 109, 659–684; Huggett, M., 1997. The one-sector growth model with idiosyncratic shocks: steady states and dynamics. Journal of Monetary Economics 39, 385–403]), labor supply is likely to be lower than under complete markets. This is due to an ex post wealth effect on labor supply (rich productive agents work fewer hours) that runs counter the precautionary savings motive. As a result, equilibrium savings and output may be lower under incomplete markets. It is also found that long-run savings remain finite even when the interest rate equals the inverse of the discount factor.

Publication date 2007-04 Collection CEPR Discussion Paper Series : 6232
HAMERMESH Daniel
BURDA Michael
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Using time-diary data from 25 countries, we demonstrate that there is a negative relationship between real GDP per capita and the female-male difference in total work time per day—the sum of work for pay and work at home. In rich northern countries on four continents there is no difference— men and women do the same amount of total work. This latter fact has been presented before by several sociologists for a few rich countries; but our survey results show that labour economists, macroeconomists, the general public and sociologists are unaware of it and instead believe that women perform more total work. The facts do not arise from gender differences in the price of time (as measured by market wages), as women’s total work is further below men’s where their relative wages are lower. Additional tests using U.S. and German data show that they do not arise from differences in marital bargaining, as gender equality is not associated with marital status; nor do they stem from family norms, since most of the variance in the gender total work difference is due to within-couple differences. We offer a theory of social norms to explain the facts. The social-norm explanation is better able to account for within-education group and within-region gender differences in total work being smaller than inter-group differences. It is consistent with evidence using the World Values Surveys that female total work is relatively greater than men’s where both men and women believe that scarce jobs should be offered to men first.

Publication date 2007-03 Collection IZA Discussion Paper series : 2705
HAMERMESH Daniel
BURDA Michael
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Using time-diary data from 25 countries, we demonstrate that there is a negative relationship between real GDP per capita and the female-male difference in total work time per day – the sum of work for pay and work at home. In rich northern countries on four continents, including the United States, there is no difference – men and women do the same amount of total work. This latter fact has been presented before by several sociologists for a few rich countries; but our survey results show that labor economists, macroeconomists, the general public and sociologists are unaware of it and instead believe that women perform more total work. The facts do not arise from gender differences in the price of time (as measured by market wages), as women’s total work is further below men’s where their relative wages are lower. Additional tests using U.S. and German data show that they do not arise from differences in marital bargaining, as gender equality is not associated with marital status; nor do they stem from family norms, since most of the variance in the gender total work difference is due to within-couple differences. We offer a theory of social norms to explain the facts. The social-norm explanation is better able to account for within-education group and within-region gender differences in total work being smaller than inter-group differences. It is consistent with evidence using the World Values Surveys that female total work is relatively greater than men’s where both men and women believe that scarce jobs should be offered to men first.

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