Co-auteur
  • NESTA Lionel (10)
  • FAGIOLO Giorgio (8)
  • REYES Javier (8)
  • GUILLOU Sarah (6)
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Type de Document
  • Working paper (18)
  • Article (14)
  • Partie ou chapitre de livre (4)
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We simulate the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on corporate solvency using a sample of around one million French nonfinancial companies, assuming they minimize their production costs in the context of a sharp drop in demand. We find that the lockdown triggers an unprecedented increase in the share of illiquid and insolvent firms, with the former more than doubling relative to a No-Covid scenario (growing from 3.8% to more than 10%) and insolvencies increasing by 80% (from 1.8% to 3.2%). The crisis has a heterogeneous effect across sectors, firm size, and region. Sectors such as hotels and restaurants, household services, and construction are the most vulnerable, while wholesale and retail trade, and manufacturing are more resilient. Micro-firms and large businesses are more likely to face solvency issues, whereas SMEs and medium-large firms display lower insolvency rates. The furlough scheme put forward by the government (activité partielle) has been very effective in limiting the number of insolvencies, reducing it by more than 1 percentage point (approximately 12,000 firms in our sample). This crisis will also have an impact on the overall efficiency of the French economic system, as market selection appears to be less efficient during crisis periods relative to “normal times”: in fact, the fraction of very productive firms that are insolvent significantly increases in the aftermath of the lockdown. This provides a rationale for policy interventions aimed at supporting efficient, viable, yet illiquid firms weathering the storm. We evaluate the cost of such a scheme aimed at strength-ening firms' financial health to around 8 billion euros.

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Nous simulons l'impact de la crise Covid-19 sur la solvabilité des entreprises à partir d'un échantillon d'un million d'entreprises françaises (Données FARE 2017). Par défaillance, nous entendons l'état de cessation de paiement de l'entreprise, c'est-à-dire quand les fonds propres de l'entreprise sont négatifs. [Premier paragraphe]

in Economics Letters Publié en 2018-12
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This paper studies the high yet undocumented incidence of firms displaying markups lower than unity, i.e., prices lower than marginal costs, for protracted periods of time. Using a large sample of French manufacturing firms for the period 1990–2007, the paper estimates markups at the firm level and documents in a robust way the extent to which firms exhibit negative price-cost margins. The paper also investigates the relationship between the incidence and persistence of negative price-cost margins and candidate explanations, such as subsidies, strategic behaviour, uncertainty and irreversibility.

Publié en 2018-12
MONTMARTIN Benjamin
CHIAPPINI Raphaël
GREBEL Thomas
BLAS-LOPEZ Esther
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The paper investigates the impact of import competition on rent-sharing between firms and employees. First, by applying recent advances in the estimation of price-costs margins to a large panel of French manufacturing firms for the period 1993–2007,we are able to classify each firm into labor- and product-market regimes based on the presence/absence of market power. Second, we concentrate on firms that operate in an efficient bargaining framework to study the effect of import penetration on workers’ bargaining power. We find that French imports from other OECD countries have a negative effect on bargaining power, whereas the impact of imports from low wage countries is more muted. By providing firm-level evidence on the relationship between international trade and rent sharing, the paper sheds new light on the effect of trade liberalization on the labor market.

Publié en 2017-04 Collection working paper : 2017-11
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This paper studies the high yet undocumented incidence of firms displaying markups lower than unity, i.e., prices lower than marginal costs, for protracted periods of time. Using a large sample of French manufacturing firms for the period 1990-2007, the paper estimates markups at the firm level and documents the extent to which firms exhibit negative price cost margins. The paper is able to provide an explanation for this phenomenon using the option value approach to investment decisions. The results suggest that firms facing higher investment irreversibility tend to continue operating even when prices fall below marginal costs as they wait for market conditions to improve. This effect is magnified in the presence of uncertainty.

Publié en 2015-09 Collection working paper : 2015-19
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Most trade models featuring heterogeneous firms assume a Pareto productivity distribution, on the basis that it provides a reasonable representation of the data and because of its analytical tractability. However, recent work shows that the characteristics of the productivity distribution crucially affect the estimated gains from trade. This paper thoroughly compares the gains from trade obtained under different productivity distributions: we find that both the magnitude of the welfare gains and the relative importance of the fixed versus variable trade costs change significantly. Relying blindly on a single distribution is therefore dangerous when performing welfare analysis.

in Industrial and Corporate Change Publié en 2014-12
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This article presents a simple model in which exporting firms are heterogeneous, both in terms of productivity and liquidity, with the latter being affected by exchange rate changes. This configuration is used to analyze the profits sensitivity to exchange rate changes. The originality of the article lies in the assumption that exchange rate shocks can either boost or depress liquidity, thus allowing one to study exposure in different scenarios. The model predicts that the sensitivity of a firm’s profits to exchange rate changes depends on its financial condition: an increase in the cost of external funds makes profits less sensitive to exchange rate shocks when a firm’s liquidity decreases following a depreciation of the domestic currency. The predictions of the model are tested using a large data set of French exporting firms: results confirm that for firms whose liquidity is negatively correlated with exchange rate movements, an increase in financial costs lowers exposure.

Publié en 2013-09
MONTINARI Letizia
RICCABONI Massimo
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This paper contributes to the literature explaining firm-level heterogenenity in the extensive margin of trade, defined as the number of products exported by each firm. We develop a model where firms must invest in R&D to maintain and increase their portfolio of goods: the process of product innovation by new and incumbent firms is such that the probability to capture new products is a function of the number of varieties already exported. This mechanism, together with the entry/exit dynamics that characterize the economy, gives rise to a Pareto distribution for the number of products exported by each firm. On the other hand, we model export sales as depending on exogenous preference shocks on the demand side, which leads to a lognormal distribution for the intensive margin of trade. Both predictions are consistent with a number of empirical findings recently emerged in the literature; this paper provides additional evidence based on a large dataset of French firms. Finally, a simple extension to the model allows us to derive some interesting insights on the behavior of multi-products firms: sales of different products across destinations are not uncorrelated, but show a rather strict hierarchy.

Publié en 2011-06 Collection Document de travail de l'OFCE : 2011-13
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We develop a simple model where exporting firms are characterized by het- erogeneous productivity and may face a liquidity constraint, which in turn is affected by exchange rate changes. This setup is used to analyze exchange rate exposure, i.e. the sensitivity of profits to exchange rate changes, and to derive testable implications that we bring to the data. The key innovation of our setup is to assume that exchange rate changes can either boost or depress liquidity: this allows us to study exposure profits under different scenarios. We find that profits of more productive firms should be more sensitive to ex- change rate fluctuations. Moreover, an increase in the cost of external funds (relative to cash flow) makes profits less sensitive to exchange rate shocks for firms whose liquidity is positively affected by an appreciation of the exchange rate. We test these predictions derived from the model using a large dataset of French exporting firms. Results confirm that exposure tends to increase with productivity but in a non linear way. Furthermore, empirical results confirm that for firm whose cash flow is negatively correlated with exchange rate movements, an increase in financial costs lowers exposure.

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