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  • CAHUC Pierre (30)
  • ALLAIS Olivier (10)
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Le populisme est le produit de deux secousses telluriques. Premier séisme : la montée d’un immense ressentiment contre les partis et les institutions politiques. Face à l’échec de la droite et de la gauche à contenir les excès du capitalisme, la radicalité « anti-système » a brisé les compromis que l’un et l’autre camps étaient parvenus à édifier. Deuxième séisme : la fin de la société de classes, au profit d’une société d’individus pensant leur position sociale en termes subjectifs. Une nouvelle polarité en résulte, qui sépare les « confiants » des « méfiants » envers autrui. La droite populiste surgit au croisement d’une double méfiance – à l’égard des institutions politiques et à l’égard de la société. Elle prospère sur le désenchantement démocratique, tout en renouvelant le clivage gauche-droite. Fondé sur des données inédites, cet ouvrage se révèle essentiel pour comprendre le présent et l’avenir des sociétés démocratiques. Doyen de l’École d’affaires publiques, Yann Algan est professeur d’économie à Sciences Po. Économiste, Elizabeth Beasley est chercheuse à l'Observatoire du bien-être au CEPREMAP, et ancienne directrice de J-PAL France. Daniel Cohen est directeur du département d’économie de l’École normale supérieure et professeur à l’École d’économie de Paris. Directeur du CEVIPOF (CNRS), Martial Foucault est professeur des universités en science politique à Sciences Po.

Publié en 2019-06 Collection CEPR Discussion Papers : DP13771
LE CHAPELAIN Alexis
ZENOU Yves
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We study how friendship shapes students' political opinions in a natural experiment. We use the indicator whether two students were exogenously assigned to a short-term "integration group", unrelated to scholar activities and dissolved before the school year, as instrumental variable for their friendship, to estimate the effect of friendship on pairwise political opinion outcomes in dyadic regressions. After six months, friendship causes a reduction of differences in opinions by one quarter of the mean difference. It likely works through a homophily-enforced mechanism, by which friendship causes politically-similar students to join political associations together, which reinforces their political similarity. The effect is strong among initially similar pairs, but absent in dissimilar pairs. Friendship affects opinion gaps by reducing divergence, therefore polarization and extremism, without forcing individuals' views to converge. Network characteristics also matter to the friendship effect.

Publié en 2019-02 Collection Note de l'Observatoire du Bien-être : 2019-03
COHEN Daniel
BEASLEY Elizabeth
PÉRON Madeleine
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Ce travail propose pour la première fois d’étudier les clivages cachés du soutien aux Gilets jaunes à partir des données de l’enquêe du Baromètre de la confiance du CEVIPOF. Nous montrons que le soutien au mouvement entérine l’ effacement de l’axe droite-gauche traditionnel. Les Gilets jaunes réunissent des personnes dont les taux de satisfaction dans la vie sont très faibles, indépendamment de leur accord sur les moyens d’y répondre. Ce sont majoritairement d’anciens éecteurs de Marine Le Pen, de Jean-Luc Mélenchon ou des abstentionnistes (dans cet ordre). Ils partagent une critique plus radicale de l’Etat et du gouvernement que l’un et l’autre de ces électorats, tout en ayant des positions plus médianes sur des questions morales comme la tolérance a l’ égard des minorités. L’analyse de la géographie des ronds-points confirme le caractère original de ce mouvement. Le Nord-Est et le Sud-Ouest sont les points forts de la mobilisation, soit les deux régions ou Marine Le Pen et Jean-Luc Mélenchon ont fait leurs meilleurs scores en 2017

in JAMA Pediatrics Publié en 2019-02
VERGUNST Francis
TREMBLAY Richard E
NAGIN Daniel
BEASLEY Elizabeth
PARK Jungwee
GALERA Cédric
VITARO Frank
CÔTÉ Sylvana
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Importance Identifying early childhood behavioral problems associated with economic success/failure is essential for the development of targeted interventions that enhance economic prosperity through improved educational attainment and social integration. Objective To test the association between kindergarten teacher–rated assessments of inattention, hyperactivity, opposition, aggression, and prosociality in boys with their employment earnings at age 35 to 36 years as measured by government tax return data. Design, Setting, and Participants A 30-year prospective follow-up study analyzing low socioeconomic neighborhoods in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Boys aged 5 to 6 years attending kindergarten in low socioeconomic neighborhoods were recruited. Teacher-rated behavioral assessments were obtained for 1040 boys. Data were collected from April 1984 to December 2015. Analysis began January 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures Mixed-effects linear regression models were used to examine the association between teacher ratings of inattention, hyperactivity, opposition, aggression, and prosociality at age 6 years and individual earnings obtained from government tax returns at age 35 to 36 years. The IQ of the child and family adversity were adjusted for in the analysis. Results Complete data were available for 920 study participants (mean age at follow-up was 36.3 years). Mean (SD) personal earnings at follow-up were $28 865.53 ($24 103.45) (range, $0-$142 267.84). A 1-unit increase in inattention (mean [SD], 2.66 [2.34]; range, 0-8) at age 6 years was associated with decrease in earnings at age 35 to 36 years of $1295.13 (95% CI, −$2051.65 to −$538.62), while a unit increase in prosociality (mean [SD], 8.0 [4.96]; range, 0-20) was associated with an increase in earnings of $406.15 (95% CI, $172.54-$639.77). Hyperactivity, opposition, and aggression were not significantly associated with earnings. Child IQ was associated with higher earnings and family adversity with lower earnings in all models. A 1-SD reduction in inattention at age 6 years was associated with a theoretical increase in annual earnings of $3040.41, a similar magnitude to an equivalent increase in IQ. Conclusions and Relevance Teacher ratings of inattention and prosociality in kindergarten boys from low socioeconomic neighborhoods are associated with earnings in adulthood after adjustment for hyperactivity, aggression, and opposition, which were not associated with earnings. Interventions beginning in kindergarten that target boys’ inattention and enhance prosociality could positively impact workforce integration and earnings.

in G7 Magazine: Global Briefing Report Publié en 2019
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The rise of antisystem forces and populism testifies to a deep trust crisis of citizens, both towards their institutions and others, as we show in a new book “The origins of populism” (with D. Cohen, E. Beasley, M. Foucault). The votes for antisystem parties is fueled first and foremost by a sharp deterioration of citizens’ trust in their institutions, experts and elites over the last three decades. According to the World Values Survey, the share of people who do not trust Parliament has increased from 47% to 77% in the United States, from 37% to 64% in France, and from 60% to 77% in Britain since the early 80s. [First paragraph]

in PLos ONE Publié en 2019-01
MURTIN Fabrice
BEASLEY Elizabeth
HIGAD Kazuhito
SENIK Claudia
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We build models to estimate well-being in the United States based on changes in the volume of internet searches for different words, obtained from the Google Trends website. The estimated well-being series are weighted combinations of word groups that are endogenously identified to fit the weekly subjective well-being measures collected by Gallup Analytics for the United States or the biannual measures for the 50 states. Our approach combines theoretical underpinnings and statistical analysis, and the model we construct successfully estimates the out-of-sample evolution of most subjective well-being measures at a one-year horizon. Our analysis suggests that internet search data can be a complement to traditional survey data to measure and analyze the well-being of a population at high frequency and local geographic levels. We highlight some factors that are important for well-being, as we find that internet searches associated with job search, civic participation, and healthy habits consistently predict well-being across several models, datasets and use cases during the period studied.

in For Good Measure Advancing Research on Well-being Metrics Beyond GDP Publié en 2018-11
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This chapter discusses the role of trust for social progress and people’s well-being. It reviews the different definitions and types of trust, including rational trust, moral trust and social preferences, as well as the state of existing statistics on trust. The chapter argues in favour of the definition of trust provided by the OECD Guidelines on Measuring Trust as “a person’s belief that another person or institution will act consistently with their expectations of positive behaviour”. It looks at why trust matters for the well-being of people and the country where they live, and assesses the available evidence on its role in supporting social and economic relations. It analyses trust between individuals (inter-personal trust) and trust in institutions (institutional trust) as determinants of economic growth, social cohesion and well-being, as a crucial component for policy reform and for the legitimacy and sustainability of any political system. Finally, the chapter stresses the importance of integrating survey measures of trust into the routine data collection activities of National Statistical Offices, and of implementing quasi-experimental measures of trust and other social norms based on representative samples of the population as a complement to traditional survey questions.

in Les notes du Conseil d’Analyse Économique Publié en 2018-10
HUILLERY Elise
PROST Corinne
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Si les résultats scolaires des jeunes Français se situent dans la moyenne de l’OCDE, la France se singularise par un fort clivage entre, d’un côté, une élite qui excelle et, de l’autre, des élèves qui cumulent les difficultés, avec un fort déterminisme social. Par ailleurs, chaque année, 100 000 jeunes quittent le système scolaire sans diplôme.L’effort budgétaire de la France en faveur de l’éducation... (Premières lignes)

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We examine the dislocation from the traditional left-right political axis in the 2017 French election, analyze support for populist movements and show that subjective variables are key to understanding it. Votes on the traditional left-right axis are correlated to ideology concerning redistribution, and predicted by socio-economic variables such as income and social status. Votes on the new diagonal opposing “open vs closed society” are predicted by individual and subjective variables. More specifically, low well-being predicts anti-system opinions (from the left or from the right) while low interpersonal trust (ITP) predicts right-wing populism.

Publié en 2018-06 Collection OECD Statistics Working Papers : 89
MURTIN Fabrice
FLEISCHER Lara
SIEGERINK Vincent
AASSVE Arnstein
BOARINI Romina
GONZALEZ Santiago
LONTI Zsuzsanna
SCHMIDT Ulrich
GRIMALDA Gianluca
HORTALA VALLVE Rafael
KIM Soonhee
LEE David
PUTTERMAN Louis
SMITH Conal
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This paper describes the results of an international initiative on trust (Trustlab) run in six OECD countries between November 2016 and November 2017 (France, Germany, Italy, Korea, Slovenia and the United States). Trustlab combines cutting-edge techniques drawn from behavioural science and experimental economics with an extensive survey on the policy and contextual determinants of trust in others and trust in institutions, administered to representative samples of participants. The main results are as follows: 1) Self-reported measures of trust in institutions are validated experimentally, 2) Self-reported measures of trust in others capture a belief about trustworthiness (as well as altruistic preferences), whereas experimental measures rather capture willingness to cooperate and one’s own trustworthiness. Therefore, both measures are loosely related, and should be considered complementary rather than substitutes; 3) Perceptions of institutional performance strongly correlate with both trust in government and trust in others; 4) Perceived government integrity is the strongest determinant of trust in government; 5) In addition to indicators associated with social capital, such as neighbourhood connectedness and attitudes towards immigration, perceived satisfaction with public services, social preferences and expectations matter for trust in others; 6) There is a large scope for policy action, as an increase in all significant determinants of trust in government by one standard deviation may be conducive to an increase in trust by 30 to 60%.

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