Sciences Pohttp://spire.sciencespo.fr:80/dissemination/atom-publications-by-author.xml?hdl=2441/1d1vlhp8p7t3k7k9740p7212glist of publications for an author2019-04-19T08:50:47Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/6s91smjgp68k4ovh7u9tac2jb8Y a t-il plus de chômeurs qualifiés lorsque l’économie est en récession ? Les chômeurs sont-ils alors plus souvent contraints d’accepter des emplois de moindre qualité ? À l’inverse, les employés trouvent-ils plus facilement de meilleurs emplois lorsque l’économie rebondit ? Pour répondre à ces questions, Jean-Marc Robin, chercheur au Département d’économie de Sciences Po, et Jeremy Lise, Associate Professor à l’Université du Minnesota, ont élaboré un modèle macroéconomique très riche qu’ils ont calibré sur données américaines. Ils en ont fait l’exposé dans la très prestigieuse The American Economic Review : The Macro-dynamics of Sorting between Workers and Firms. Aperçu.Les effets de la conjoncture sur les appariements entre emplois et employés2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/lpag9391598uoauqu4u9opq76We propose a two-step method to nonparametrically estimate multivariate models in which the observed outcomes are independent conditional on a discrete latent variable. Applications include microeconometric models with unobserved types of agents, regime-switching models, and models with misclassification error. In the first step, we estimate weights that transform moments of the marginal distribution of the data into moments of the conditional distribution of the data for given values of the latent variable. In the second step, these conditional moments are estimated as weighted sample averages. We illustrate the method by estimating a model of wages with unobserved heterogeneity on PSID data.Nonparametric estimation of non-exchangeable latent-variable models2019-04-04T21:02:59Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/660vg58v5k8erajtn9uj2uue81We document changes in labour supply, wage and education by gender and marital status using the British Household Panel Survey, 1991-2008, and seek to disentangle the main channels behind these changes. To this end, we use a version of Goussé et al. (2016)'s search-matching model of the marriage market with labour supply, which does not use information on home production time inputs. We derive conditions under which the model is identified. We estimate different parameters for each year. This allows us to quantify how much of the changes in labour supply, wage and education by gender and marital status depends on changes in the preferences for leisure of men and women and how much depends on changes in homophily.Household labour supply and the marriage market in the UK, 1991-20082019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/2gm7u1h28o97arriihp43sr90lWe develop an equilibrium model of on-the-job search with ex ante heterogeneous workers and firms, aggregate uncertainty, and vacancy creation. The model produces rich dynamics in which the distributions of unemployed workers, vacancies, and worker-firm matches evolve stochastically over time. We prove that the surplus function, which fully characterizes the match value and the mobility decision of workers, does not depend on these distributions. This result means the model is tractable and can be estimated. We illustrate the quantitative implications of the model by fitting to US aggregate labor market data from 1951-2012. The model has rich implications for the cyclical dynamics of the distribution of skills of the unemployed, the distribution of types of vacancies posted, and sorting between heterogeneous workers and firms. The Macrodynamics of Sorting between Workers and Firms2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/4po7er2pp49baoh37bjdkluouuWe study the treatment effect of grade retention using a panel of French junior high-school students, taking unobserved heterogeneity and the endogeneity of grade repetitions into account. We specify a multistage model of human-capital accumulation with a finite number of types representing unobserved individual characteristics. Class-size and latent student-performance indices are assumed to follow finite mixtures of normal distributions. Grade retention may increase or decrease the student’s knowledge capital in a type-dependent way. Our estimation results show that the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) of grade retention on test scores is positive but small at the end of grade 9. Treatment effects are heterogeneous: we find that the ATT of grade retention is higher for the weakest students. We also show that class size is endogenous and tends to increase with unobserved student ability. The average treatment effect of grade retention is negative, again with the exception of the weakest group of students. Grade repetitions reduce the probability of access to grade 9 of all student types.Grade Retention and Unobserved Heterogeneity2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/etefo8s8r89oamhnhiclqr530A constructive proof of identification of multilinear decompositions of multiway arrays is presented. It can be applied to show identification in a variety of multivariate latent structures. Examples are finite-mixture models and hidden Markov models. The key step to show identification is the joint diagonalization of a set of matrices in the same non-orthogonal basis. An estimator of the latent-structure model may then be based on a sample version of this joint-diagonalization problem. Algorithms are available for computation and we derive distribution theory. We further develop asymptotic theory for orthogonal-series estimators of component densities in mixture models and emission densities in hidden Markov models.Estimating Multivariate Latent-Structure Models2019-04-04T21:02:59Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/2fecv0pvng8afbbhqcplt7ihf3We develop an equilibrium model of on-the-job search with ex ante heterogeneous workers and firms, aggregate uncertainty, and vacancy creation. The model produces rich dynamics in which the distributions of unemployed workers, vacancies, and worker-firm matches evolve stochastically over time. We prove that the surplus function, which fully characterizes the match value and the mobility decision of workers, does not depend on these distributions. This result means the model is tractable and can be estimated. We illustrate the quantitative implications of the model by fitting to US aggregate labor market data from 1951–2012. The model has rich implications for the cyclical dynamics of the distribution of skills of the unemployed, the distribution of types of vacancies posted, and sorting between heterogeneous workers and firms. The Macro-Dynamics of Sorting between Workers and Firms2019-04-04T18:37:22Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/78hlmdbud88hhp5vbdddivv2huWe develop an empirical search-matching model which is suitable for analyzing the wage, employment and welfare impact of regulation in a labor market with heterogeneous workers and jobs. To achieve this we develop an equilibrium model of wage determination and employment which extends the current literature on equilibrium wage determination with matching and provides a bridge between some of the most prominent macro models and microeconometric research. The model incorporates productivity shocks, long-term contracts, on-the-job search and counter-offers. Importantly, the model allows for the possibility of assortative matching between workers and jobs due to complementarities between worker and job characteristics. We use the model to estimate the potential gain from optimal regulation and we consider the potential gains and redistributive impacts from optimal unemployment benefit policy. Here optimal policy is defined as that which maximizes total output and home production, accounting for the various constraints that arise from search frictions. The model is estimated on the NLSY using the method of moments.Matching, Sorting, and Wages2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/1avjr94u1u9dkqrhs6u825vpp4We quantify the contribution of labor market reforms to unemployment dynamics in nine OECD countries (Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, UK, US). We estimate a dynamic stochastic search-matching model with heterogeneous workers and aggregate productivity shocks. The heterogeneous-worker mechanism proposed by Robin (2011) explains unemployment volatility by productivity shocks well in all countries. Placement and employment services, UI benefit reduction and product market deregulation are found to be the most prominent policy levers for unemployment reduction. Business cycle shocks and LMPs explain about the same share of unemployment volatility (except for Japan, Portugal and the US).Labor Market Reforms and Unemployment Dynamics2019-04-04T18:37:41Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/4ra95789n9nrr59b6lmini6tpWe develop an equilibrium wage-posting model with heterogeneous firms that decide to locate in the formal or the informal sector and workers who search randomly on and off the job. We estimate the model on Brazilian labor force survey data. In equilibrium, firms of equal productivity locate in different sectors, a fact observed in the data. Wages are characterized by compensating differentials. We show that tightening enforcement does not increase unemployment and increases wages, total output, and welfare by enabling better allocation of workers to higher productivity jobs and improving competition in the formal labor market.Wages and Informality in Developing Countries2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/51sosj74bo8t69726q85nn2tbqThis paper provides methods to estimate finite mixtures from data with repeated measurements non-parametrically. We present a constructive identification argument and use it to develop simple two-step estimators of the component distributions and all their functionals. We discuss a computationally efficient method for estimation and derive asymptotic theory. Simulation experiments suggest that our theory provides confidence intervals with good coverage in small samples.Nonparametric estimation of finite mixtures from repeated measurements2019-04-04T21:02:59Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/2i27dd3b6h94aarftq0slq652aA constructive proof of identification of multilinear decompositions of multiway arrays is presented. It can be applied to show identification in a variety of multivariate latent structures. Examples are finite-mixture models and hidden Markov models. The key step to show identification is the joint diagonalization of a set of matrices in the same non-orthogonal basis. An estimator of the latent-structure model may then be based on a sample version of this simultaneous-diagonalization problem. Simple algorithms are available for computation. Asymptotic theory is derived for this joint approximate-diagonalization estimator.Estimating Multivariate Latent-Structure Models2019-04-04T21:02:59Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/1jgbspo1909q48svne93o55rcaThis dissertation discusses the relevance of the implementation of market mechanisms in the educational system. It shows that such mechanisms are unlikely to improve the matching between schools and students, since centralized mechanisms perform better. Then, it measures peers effects in French public junior high school, and shows that they quite large. In a third part, it looks to the compensation of teachers in France, and show that it is not based on merit or performance. Last, it analyses the impact of the openness to competition of the education, and shows that it is unlikely to produce improvement. Indeed, such openness would lead to an increased vertical differentiation across, giving them more market power. As a result, market mechanisms seem unable to improve students’ achievement.
Cette thèse vise à discuter de la pertinence de l'introduction de mécanismes de marché au sein du système éducatif. En particulier, elle s'interroge sur la capacité de ces mécanismes à améliorer la réussite des élèves. Elle montre dans une première partie que des mécanismes de marché n’ont que peu de chance de permettre un meilleur appariement des élèves aux écoles, des mécanismes centralisés étant préférables. Elle mesure ensuite l’ampleur des effets de pair dans le système scolaire français, et montre qu’ils sont non négligeables. Elle montre ensuite que le système éducatif public français est peu capable de rémunérer ses enseignants au mérite. Enfin, elle analyse l’impact d’une ouverture à la compétition du marché scolaire sur le niveau d’effort des écoles et montre qu’une telle ouverture est susceptible de réduire le niveau d’effort des écoles en augmentant la différentiation vertical entre école, et donc leur pouvoir de marché. En conclusion, les mécanismes de marché semblent peu capables d’améliorer la réussite scolaire.
Market for Education and Student Achievement2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/7rep5mp5ij95l94ec64n5tdclpWe develop and estimate an equilibrium job search model of worker careers, allowing for human capital accumulation, employer heterogeneity and individual-level shocks. Wage growth is decomposed into contributions of human capital and job search, within and between jobs. Human capital accumulation is largest for highly educated workers. The contribution from job search to wage growth, both within- and between-job, declines over the first ten years of a career – the ‘job-shopping’ phase of a working life – after which workers settle into high-quality jobs using outside offers to generate gradual wage increases, thus reaping the benefits from competition between employers.
Tenure, Experience, Human Capital and Wages2019-04-04T18:37:22Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/6tve7u8o9k9dv8fanl7utalotrThis dissertation deals with family formation, family organization and education systems. The first two chapters study how people choose their partners and how they share their income. First, I focus on couple formation and I model how people meet and decide to match or not. People can choose their partner according to their education level, their wage and their physical attractiveness. Using American data, I observe who matches with whom and who stays single and for how long to recover the preferences of individuals in terms of mating. The second chapter attempts to understand how the efficiency and the sorting of the marriage market could impact economic outcomes such as income inequalities or labor supplies. In this chapter, when people marry, they share their income and decide how much each of them will work on the market and at home to raise children or do the housework. Using British data, I recover the amount of monetary transfers which exist between household members and show that these transfers make married women work less on the market and married men work more. The last two chapters of this dissertation focus on the French education system and on the impact of grade retention policies. In the third chapter I use decomposition methods to assess to which extent the decrease in French student’s score at PISA tests can be attributed to the changes in student’s characteristics or to the changes in school returns. Finally, in the last chapter, I use an estimation strategy to get rid of this selection effect and we use a panel data on French High School students to evaluate the impact of grade retention on their scores.Cette thèse étudie la formation des familles, leur organisation et les systèmes d’éducation. Les deux premiers chapitres traitent du choix du conjoint et du partage des ressources au sein du couple. Je modélise tout d’abord comment les individus se rencontrent et décident de se mettre en couple ou non en fonction de leur niveau d’éducation, de leur revenu et leur apparence physique. J’utilise des données américaines où j’observe qui est marié avec qui et pour combien de temps, ce qui me permet d’identifier les préférences des individus. Le deuxième chapitre analyse les effets du mariage sur certaines tendances économiques comme les inégalités de revenu ou les offres de travail. Dans ce chapitre, les personnes en couple se partagent leur revenu et choisissent ensemble la meilleure organisation pour travailler et accomplir les taches domestiques et élever les enfants. Avec des données britanniques, j’identifie les transferts de revenu qui existent entre les hommes et les femmes et je montre que ces transferts augmentent le travail des hommes mariés et diminuent celui des femmes mariées. Les deux derniers chapitres étudient l’efficacité du collège français et notamment la pratique du redoublement. Le troisième chapitre mobilise des méthodes de décomposition pour évaluer dans quelle mesure la baisse des scores des élèves français aux tests PISA peut être attribuée à des changements dans les caractéristiques des élèves ou à des changements dans les rendements de l’éducation. Enfin, le dernier chapitre se concentre particulièrement sur le redoublement et utilise des données de panel sur les collégiens français pour évaluer l’impact du redoublement sur leurs résultats.Marriage Market and Intra-Household Allocation. Essays in Economics of Family and Education2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/42tkpm5t7862r5ipdeiq2voouIn this paper, we quantify the contribution of labor market reforms to unemployment dynamics in nine OECD countries (Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States). We build and estimate a dynamic stochastic search-matching model with heterogeneous workers, where aggregate shocks to productivity fuel up the cycle, and unanticipated policy interventions shift structural parameters and displace the long-term equilibrium. We show that the heterogeneous-worker mechanism proposed by Robin (2011) to explain unemployment volatility by productivity shocks works well in all countries. The amount of resources injected into placement and employment services, the reduction of UI benefits and product market deregulation stand out as the most prominent policy levers for unemployment reduction. All other LMPs have a significant but lesser impact. We also find that business cycle shocks and LMPs explain about the same share of unemployment volatility (except for Japan, Portugal and the US).Labor market reforms and unemployment dynamics2019-04-04T18:37:41Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/6o65lgig8d0qcro9p14826c84This work consists of four independent chapters. The first deals with partially identified models, i.e. models in which the parameter of interest is not uniquely identified from the data and the model’s assumptions. In some cases, no value of the parameter of interest is compatible with the data and the model’s assumption. And conversely in some cases, many values are compatible with the data and the model’s assumptions. This work demonstrates among other things that if the set of probability distributions compatible with the model is convex, then this set is characterized by its the extreme parts. The second paper proposes a method based on an exclusion restriction to correct endogenous attrition in panels. We apply this method to estimate the transitions on the labor market from the French Labour Force Survey. The third paper proposes a simple method to estimate a Logit model with fixed effects and state dependence as studied by Honoré and Kiriazidou. It also proposes a new method for inference. The fourth work is an evaluation of a French educational policy, implemented in 2006 whose objective is to provide extra resource to a subset of junior high schools. We exploit a discontinuity in treatment selection to build a credible counterfactual. Our results indicate some adverse treatment effects.Cette thèse se compose de quatre travaux indépendants. Le premier concerne les modèles partiellement identifiés, c'est-à-dire des modèles dans lesquels la valeur du paramètre d’intérêt ne peut pas être déduite de la distribution des données et des hypothèses du modèle. Dans certaines situations, aucune ou au contraire plusieurs valeurs du paramètre d’intérêt sont compatibles avec les données et les hypothèses du modèle. Ce travail démontre entre autre que si l’ensemble des distributions de probabilités compatibles avec le modèle est convexe, alors les parties extrêmes de ce convexe caractérise l’ensemble des distributions compatibles avec le modèle. Le deuxième travail propose une méthode basée sur une condition d’exclusion pour corriger de l’attrition endogène dans les panels. Nous appliquons cette méthode pour estimer les transitions sur le marché du travail à partir de l’enquête emploi française. Le troisième travail propose une méthode simple pour estimer un modèle logistique avec effets fixes et dépendance d’état tel qu’étudié par Honoré et Kiriazidou. Il propose également un nouvel estimateur des écarts-types qui semble avoir de meilleures propriétés à distance finie. Le quatrième travail est une évaluation sur les collèges de la politique éducative des Réseaux-Ambition-Réussite lancée en 2006. Nous exploitons une discontinuité dans la sélection des collèges pour comparer entre eux certains collèges « identiques » avant la mise en place de la politique. Les résultats de cette évaluation laissent place à peu d’optimisme concernant l’efficacité de cette politique.Four Essays in Econometrics2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n8t4k21smThe aim of this paper is to provide simple nonparametric methods to estimate finitemixture models from data with repeated measurements. Three measurements suffice for the mixture to be fully identified and so our approach can be used even with very short panel data. We provide distribution theory for estimators of the mixing proportions and the mixture distributions, and various functionals thereof. We also discuss inference on the number of components. These estimators are found to perform well in a series of Monte Carlo exercises. We apply our techniques to document heterogeneity in log annual earnings using PSID data
spanning the period 1969–1998.
Nonparametric estimation of finite mixtures2019-04-04T21:02:59Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/27gcpqk7lh9jsrd5361jqsbt51This paper analyzes the career progression of skilled and unskilled workers, with a focus on how careers are affected by economic downturns and whether formal skills, acquired early on, can shield workers from the effect of recessions. Using detailed administrative data for Germany for numerous birth cohorts across different regions, we follow workers from labor market entry onwards and estimate a dynamic life-cycle model of vocational training choice, labor supply, and wage progression. Most particularly, our model allows for labor market frictions that vary by skill group and over the business cycle. We find that sources of wage growth differ: learning-by-doing is an important component for unskilled workers early on in their careers, while job mobility is important for workers who acquire skills in an apprenticeship scheme before labor market entry. Likewise, economic downturns affect skill groups through very different channels: unskilled workers lose out from a decline in productivity and human capital, whereas skilled individuals suffer mainly from a lack of mobility. Career Progression, Economic Downturns and Skills2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/6ggbvnr6munghes9od0s108roWe develop an empirical search-matching model with productivity shocks so as to analyze policy interventions in a labor market with heterogeneous agents. To achieve this we develop an equilibrium model of wage determination and employment, which is consistent with key empirical facts. As such our model extends the current literature on equilibrium wage determination with matching and provides a bridge between some of the most prominent macro models and microeconometric research. The model incorporates long-term contracts, on-the-job search and counter-oﬀers, and a vacancy creation and destruction process linked to productivity shocks. Importantly, the model allows for the possibility of assortative matching between workers and jobs, a feature that had been ruled out by assumption in the empirical equilibrium search literature to date. We use the model to estimate the potential gain from an optimal unemployment insurance scheme, as well as the redistributive eﬀects of such a policyMatching, Sorting and Wages 2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/32h1padvln887b3u0epa07o4ubWe develop an empirical search-matching model which is suitable for analyzing the wage, employment and welfare impact of regulation in a labor market with heterogeneous workers and jobs. To achieve this we develop an equilibrium model of wage determination and employment which extends the current literature on equilibrium wage determination with matching and provides a bridge between some of the most prominent macro models and microeconometric research. The model incorporates productivity shocks, long-term contracts, on-the-job search and counter-offers. Importantly, the model allows for the possibility of assortative matching between workers and jobs due to complementarities between worker and job characteristics. We use the model to estimate the potential gain from optimal regulation and we consider the potential gains and redistributive impacts from optimal unemployment insurance policy. Here optimal policy is defined as that which maximizes total output and home production, accounting for the various constraints that arise from search frictions. The model is estimated on the NLSY using the method of moment.Mismatch, Sorting and Wages Dynamics2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09iam3g6qbiIl existe une économie politique du redoublement dont il faut essayer de mettre à jour quelques ressorts : le redoublement est une modalité particulière de la gestion du système éducatif qui présente des coûts et des bénéfices et dont l’efficacité est mise en question depuis de nombreuses années. Si la question du redoublement est aussi difficile à trancher, c’est d’une part qu’elle pose un véritable problème méthodologique et d’autre part que ses implications dépassent et de loin le strict cadre scolaire pour déborder sur le marché du travail.La querelle des redoublements : l'apport de l'économétrie2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j003nctknPostel-Vinay and Robin’s (2002) sequential auction model is extended to allow for aggregate productivity shocks. Workers exhibit permanent differences in ability while firms are identical. Negative aggregate productivity shocks induce job destruction by driving the surplus of matches with low ability workers to negative values. Endogenous job destruction coupled with worker heterogeneity thus provides a mechanism for amplifying productivity shocks that offers an original solution to the unemployment volatility puzzle (Shimer (2005)). Moreover, positive or negative shocks may lead employers and employees to renegotiate low wages up and high wages down when agents’ individual surpluses become negative. The model delivers rich business cycle dynamics of wage distributions and explains why both low wages and high wages are more procyclical than wages in the middle of the distribution.
On the Dynamics of unemployment and wage Distributions 2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j00420pk7We propose a search-matching model of the marriage market that extends Shimer and Smith (2000) to allow for labor supply. We characterize the steady-state equilibrium when exogenous divorce is the only source of risk. The estimated matching probabilities that can be derived from the steady-state flow conditions are strongly increasing in both male and female wages. We estimate that the share of marriage surplus appropriated by the man increases with his wage and that the share appropriated by the woman decreases with her wage. We find that leisure is an inferior good for men and a normal good for women.
Marriage with Labor Supply2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j0045h4bhWe develop and estimate an equilibrium job search model of worker careers, allowing for human capital accumulation, employer heterogeneity and individual-level shocks. Monthly wage growth is decomposed into the contributions of human capital and job search, within and between jobs. Human capital accumulation is found to be the most important source of wage growth in early phases of workers’ careers, but is soon surpassed by search-induced wage growth. Conventional measures of the returns to tenure hide substantial heterogeneity between different workers in the same firm and between similar workers in different firms.
Tenure, Experience, Human Capital and Wages: A Tractable Equilibrium Search Model of Wage Dynamics2019-04-04T18:37:22Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j00488hg5We compare earnings inequality and mobility across the U.S., Canada, France, Germany and the U.K. during the late 1990s. A flexible model of earnings dynamics that isolates positional mobility within a stable earnings distribution is estimated. Earnings trajectories are then simulated, and lifetime annuity value distributions are constructed. Earnings mobility and employment risk are found to be positively correlated with base-year inequality. Taken together they produce more equalization in countries with high cross-section inequality such that the countries in our sample have more similar lifetime inequality levels than crosssectionmeasures suggest.
An International Comparison of Equalization Mobility and Lifetime Earnings Inequality: How Continental Europe Resembles North America2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk98144mc0pjPostel-Vinay and Robin’s (2002) sequential auction model is extended to allow for aggregate productivity shocks. Workers exhibit permanent differences in ability while firms are identical. Negative aggregate productivity shocks induce job destruction by driving the surplus of matches with low ability workers to negative values. Endogenous job destruction coupled with worker heterogeneity thus provides a mechanism for amplifying productivity shocks that offers an original solution to the unemployment volatility puzzle (Shimer, 2005). Moreover, positive or negative shocks may lead employers and employees to renegotiate low wages up and high wages down when agents’ individual surpluses become negative. The model delivers rich business cycle dynamics of wage distributions and explains why both low wages and high wages are more procyclical than wages in the middle of the distribution and why wage inequality may be countercyclical, as the data seem to suggest is true.On the Dynamics of Unemployment and Wage Distributions2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk98144g0dhj Business cycle dynamics of earnings inequality2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j01si09a2We study linear factor models under the assumptions that factors are mutually independent and independent of errors, and errors can be correlated to some extent. Under factor non-Gaussianity, second to fourth-order moments are shown to yield full identification of the matrix of factor loadings. We develop a simple algorithm to estimate the matrix of factor loadings from these moments. We run Monte Carlo simulations and apply our methodology to British data on cognitive test scores.Consistent Noisy Independent Component Analysis2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j008g6g0gIn this paper, we document whether and how much the equalizing force of earnings mobility has
changed in France in the 1990’s. For this purpose, we use a representative three-year panel, the French
Labour Force Survey. We develop a model of earnings dynamics that combines a flexible specification
of marginal earnings distributions (to fit the large cross-sectional dimension of the data) with a tight
parametric representation of the dynamics (adapted to the short time-series dimension). Log earnings are
modelled as the sum of a deterministic component, an individual fixed effect and a transitory component
which is assumed first-order Markov. The transition probability of the transitory component is modelled
as a one-parameter Plackett copula. We estimate this model using a sequential expectation-maximization
algorithm.
We exploit the estimated model to study employment/earnings inequality in France over the 1990–
2002 period. We show that, in phase with business-cycle fluctuations (a recession in 1993 and two peaks
in 1990 and 2000), earnings mobility decreases when cross-section inequality and unemployment risk
increase. We simulate individual earnings trajectories and compute present values of lifetime earnings
for various horizons. Inequality presents a hump-shaped evolution over the period, with a 9% increase
between 1990 and 1995 and a decrease afterwards. Accounting for unemployment yields an increase of
11%. Moreover, this increase is persistent, as it translates into a 12% increase in the variance of log present
values. The ratio of inequality in present values to inequality in one-year earnings, a natural measure of
immobility or of the persistence of inequality, remains remarkably constant over the business cycle.
Assessing the Equalizing Force of Mobility Using Short Panels: France, 1990–20002019-04-04T18:37:19Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk98118l4kpjDans cette étude, nous proposons un modèle de la dynamique salariale adapté à une estimation à partir de panels courts comme l’enquête Emploi. Nous utilisons le modèle pour simuler des trajectoires individuelles de salaires au-delà de la période d’enquête et calculer des revenus permanents. Nous mesurons le rapport entre l’inégalité de revenus permanents (inégalité de long terme) et l’inégalité salariale de coupe. Ce rapport est inférieur à un, preuve que la mobilité des revenus est égalisatrice. Cependant, nous constatons le rôle essentiel joué par le risque de chômage dans cette mesure. La mobilité réduit les inégalités sur le long terme dans un échantillon représentatif de travailleurs employés ou en chômage, en grande partie parce que le chômage ne dure pas éternellement. À l’inverse, le risque de chômage est fortement générateur d’inégalité dans l’échantillon des employés. Nous mesurons qu’il annule ainsi la moitié du bénéfice égalisateur de la mobilité salariale.In this paper, we build a model of earnings dynamics and estimate it on a
representative three-year panel, the French Labour Force Survey. We use the model to
simulate individual earnings trajectories beyond the period of observation, and to compute
permanent income values. We measure the ratio between inequality in present values of
lifetime earnings and current inequality. Thi.s ratio is less than one, showing that earnings
mobility is equalizing. Morever. it is very sensitive to unemployement risk. Mobility
reduces long-run inequality in a representative sample oí employed and unemployed workers,
in large part because unemployment is a transitory state. In contrast, unemployment
risk generates a lot of inequality in the sample of employed workers, and reduces by one
half the equalizing force of earnings mobility.La mesure des inégalités de long terme avec des panels courts : 1990-20002019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j004pc20kIn this paper,we construct a nonparametric estimator of the distributions of latent factors in linear independent multi-factor models under the assumption that factor loadings are known. Our approach allows to estimate the distributions of up to L(L+1)/2 factors given L measurements. The estimator works through empirical characteristic functions. We show that it is consistent, and derive asymptotic convergence rates. Monte-Carlo simulations show good finite-sample performance, less so if distributions are highly skewed or leptokurtic. We finally apply the generalized deconvolution procedure to decompose individual log earnings from the PSID into permanent and transitory components.Generalized nonparametric deconvolution with an application to earnings dynamics - Published Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 77, Issue 2, pp. 491-533, 20102019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms9850j92g21We compare earnings inequality and mobility across the U.S., Canada, France, Germany and the U.K. during the late 1990s. A flexible model of earnings dynamics that isolates mobility within a stable earnings distribution, allowing, or not, for fixed effects is estimated. Earnings trajectories are then simulated given baseyear earnings and lifetime annuity value distributions are constructed. Equalizing mobility is positively correlated with earnings inequality. The models with and without fixed effects provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, on the resultant lifetime inequality levels, and reveal that the countries have more similar long run inequality levels than cross-section measures suggest.An international comparison of lifetime labor income values and inequality2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms9850c12h1pMost applications of Nash bargaining over wages ignore between-employer competition for labor services and attribute all of the workers' rent to their bargaining power. In this paper, we write and estimate an equilibrium model with strategic wage bargaining and on-the-job search and use it to take another look at the determinants of wages in France. There are three essential determinants of wages in our model: productivity, competition between employers resulting from on-the-job search, and the workers' bargaining power. We find that between-firm competition matters a lot in the determination of wages, because it is quantitatively more important than wage bargaining à la Nash in raising wages above the workers' "reservation wages," defined as out-of-work income. In particular, we detect no significant bargaining power for intermediate- and low-skilled workers, and a modestly positive bargaining power for high-skilled workers.Wage bargaining with on-the-job search: theory and evidence2019-04-11T21:03:09Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms9850ciitj1Job search models of the labor market hypothesize a very tight correspondence between the determinants of labor turnover and individual wage dynamics on one hand, and the determinants of wage dispersion on the other. This paper offers a systematic examination of whether this correspondence is present in the data by estimating a rudimentary partial equilibrium job search model on a 3-year panel of individual worker data covering 10 European countries and the U.S. We find that our basic job search model fits the data surprisingly well. This also allows us to point at a number of interesting empirical regularities about wage distributions. Our results suggest that cross-sectional data on individual wages contain the basic information needed to obtain a reliable measure of the “magnitude of labor market frictions”, as measured by a parameter of the canonical job search model. Finally, we use our results in a cross-country comparison of the intensity and nature of job-to-job turnover. We arrange countries into two different groups according to their turnover intensity. We further show that the nature of job-to-job turnover is very different between those two groups: Turnover is predominantly voluntary in low-turnover countries, whereas it is to a large extent involuntary in high-turnover countries.The empirical content of the job search model: labor mobility and wage distributions in Europe and the US2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms9850bj2pk0We construct a dynamic model of individual earnings which is a natural extension of the
standard discrete Markov chains used in the empirical literature on earnings mobility and
we allow for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. Using copula representations of
multidimensional densities we decompose the likelihood of individual earnings trajectories into
the product of two components: the product of marginal–or cross-sectional–densities and the
likelihood of the sequence of individual ranks in marginal distributions. Copula representations
justify the independent analyses of cross-sectional inequality and relative mobility that one
finds in the literature. We model the year-to-year dynamics of ranks using the Plackett (1965)
parametric copula family. We use discrete mixtures of such models to characterize unobserved
heterogeneity. To estimate these mixtures, we develop a sequential EM algorithm, which is
shown to be root-N consistent and asymptotically normal. The estimation algorithm is simple
to implement and fast enough to converge for bootstrapping to be a recommendable procedure
for estimating standard errors. We then apply our methodology to French Labor Force Survey
data, for 1990-2002. We find that neglecting earnings mobility, individual heterogeneity and
unemployment risk has a significant effect on the level of intertemporal earnings inequality but
affects very little their evolution.Modeling Individual Earnings Trajectories Using Copulas: France, 1990-20022019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms9850c8a4o5In this paper, we extend to panel data the iterated linear least squares estimator of Blundell and Robin (in J Appl Econometrics 14: 209–232 1999). It is shown to be consistent when total expenditure and regression residuals are correlated, either because of simultaneity or because of unobserved heterogeneity. We propose separate tests for these two effects. Monte Carlo experiments are then conducted and the estimator is applied to data drawn from a French Consumer Panel.Estimating demand response with panel data2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms9850g0gg96The recent advent of matched employer-employee data as part of the labor market scholar’s toolbox has allowed a great deal of progress in our understanding of individual labor earnings. A growing number of empirical analyzes of available matched employer-employee data sets now combine with the already voluminous literature on empirical wage equations based on individual or household survey data to draw an ever richer picture of wage dispersion, individual wage dynamics, and the productivity-wage relationship. In this chapter we tour the empirical wage equations literature along these three lines and make a case that viewing it through the lens of structural job search models can help clarify and unify some of its recurring findings. Among other things, we emphasize and quantify the role of matching frictions in explaining the share of “residual” wage dispersion that is left unexplained by the reduced-form approach. Secondly, we quantitatively assess the importance of labor market competition between employers relative to non-competitive wage formation mechanisms (namely, wage bargaining) as a theoretical underpinning of the wage-productivity relationship. Thirdly, we show how search frictions combined with a theoretically founded wage formation rule based on renegotiation by mutual consent can account for the widely documented dynamic persistence of individual wages. We conclude with a list of questions that are open to further research.Microeconometric search-matching models and matched employer-employee data2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms9850j5i890We develop a dynamic discrete choice model of training choice, employment and wage growth, allowing for job mobility, in a world where wages depend on firm-worker matches, as well as experience and tenure and jobs take time to locate. We estimate this model on a large administrative panel data set which traces labour market transitions, mobility across firms and wages from the end of statutory schooling. We use the model to evaluate the life-cycle return to apprenticeship training and find that on average the costs outweigh the benefits; however for those who choose to train the returns are positive. We then use our model to consider the long-term lifecycle effects of two reforms: One is the introduction of an Earned Income Tax Credit in Germany, and the other is a reform to Unemployment Insurance. In both reforms we find very significant impacts of the policy on training choices and on the value of realised matches, demonstrating the importance of considering such longer term implications.Career progression and formal versus on-the-job training2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms9850b24lg6We consider an equilibrium search model with on-the-job search where firms set wages. When an employee receives an outside job offer, it is optimal for the employer to try to retain the employee by matching the offer. This results in a wage increase for the worker. However, if workers are able to vary their search intensity, then this ‘offer-matching’ policy runs into a moral hazard problem. Knowing that outside offers lead to wage increases, workers tend to search more intensively, which is costly for the firms. Assuming that firms can commit never to match outside offers, we examine the set of firm types for which it is preferable to do so. In particular, we show that a plausible pattern is one where a ‘dual’ labor market emerges, with ‘bad’ jobs at low-productivity, nonmatching firms and ‘good’ jobs at high-productivity, matching firms.To match or not to match? Optimal wage policy with endogenous worker search intensity2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms98508o55jgIn this paper we study the evolution of lifetime labour income inequality by constructing present
value life cycle measures that incorporate both earnings and employment risk. We find that, even though
lifetime income inequality is 40% less than earnings inequality, the total increase in lifetime income
inequality over the past 20 years is the same as earnings inequality. While the total increase is the same,
the pathways there differ with earnings inequality experiencing a steady increase and lifetime income
inequality increasing in spurts particularly in the latter half of the 1990s. Finally, we find the changes
in lifetime income inequality are primarily driven by changes in earnings mobility and changes in the
earnings distribution itself, changes in employment risk and the composition of the sample, such as the
shift toward attaining more education and the ageing population, do not play a large role.Twenty Years of Rising Inequality in U.S. Lifetime Labour Income Values2019-04-04T18:37:19Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms9850b4gkioWe study the impact of local economic structure on employment dynamics. Local employment is decomposed into the product of the average plant size and the number of plants in the area and industry. We estimate the dynamics of both components simultaneously using French yearly data on 36 industries and 341 areas between 1984 and 1993. The careful specification of short-run dynamics and the control for fixed effects and endogeneity are shown to be critical in the empirical model. First, static externalities are prevalent compared to dynamic ones. Moreover, whereas area-and-industry effects explain most of the spatial variation of plant size, the local number of plants is mainly driven by the current local economic structure. Policies targeted towards plant creation should thus be more efficient. For instance, large areas endowed with a small number of even size industries have both more and larger plants. A large number of plants heterogeneous in size also increases the average plant size, but the number of plants is higher when plants have similar size.The dynamics of local employment in France2019-04-04T18:37:43Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms98508k45snThis paper studies under which conditions a cross-sectional regression yields unbiased estimates of the parameters of an individual dynamic model with fixed effects and individual-specific responses to macro shocks. We show that the OLS estimation of a relationship involving non stationary variables on a cross-section yields estimates which converge to the true value when calendar time tends to infinity. We then consider the particular case of an AI demand model, and we show, using French quarterly aggregate time-series, that budget shares, relative prices and the log of real total expenditure are I(1) and form a cointegrated system. We compare these macro estimates to estimates obtained from three Family Expenditure Surveys and find large differences.Aggregation of non stationary demand systems2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms985085gkbpWe construct and estimate an equilibrium search model with on–the–job–search. Firms make take–it–or–leave–it wage offers to workers conditional on their characteristics and they can respond to the outside job offers received by their employees. Unobserved worker productive heterogeneity is introduced in the form of cross–worker differences in a "competence" parameter. On the other side of the market, firms also are heterogeneous with respect to their marginal productivity of labor. The model delivers a theory of steady–state wage dispersion driven by heterogenous worker abilities and firm productivities, as well as by matching frictions. The structural model is estimated using matched employer and employee French panel data. The exogenous distributions of worker and firm heterogeneity components are nonparametrically estimated. We use this structural estimation to provide a decomposition of cross–employee wage variance. We find that the share of the cross–sectional wage variance that is explained by person effects varies across skill groups. Specifically, this share lies close to 40% for high–skilled white collars, and quickly decreases to 0% as the observed skill level decreases. The contribution of market imperfections to wage dispersion is typically around 50%.Equilibrium wage dispersion with worker and employer heterogeneity2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms985080ecjmWe construct an equilibrium job search model with on-the-job search in which firms implement optimal-wage strategies under full information in the sense that they leave no rent to their employees and counter the offers received by their employees from competing firms. Productivity dispersion across firms results in wage mobility both within and across firms. Workers may accept wage cuts to move to firms offering higher future wage prospects. Equilibrium productivity dispersion across ex ante homogeneous firms can be endogenously generated. Productivity dispersion then generates a nontrivial wage distribution which is generically thin-tailed, as typically observed in the data.The distribution of earnings in an equilibrium search model with state-dependent offers and counteroffers2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk98114n3499This pulication has no abstract.The econometrics of equilibrium search models2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8grh35j2We consider an equilibrium search model with on-the-job search where Þrms set wages. If
employers are perfectly aware of all workers job opportunities, then when an employee receives
an outside job offer, it is optimal for their employer to try to retain them by matching the offer,
so long as the resulting wage doesnt exceed the worker.s productivity. A Bertrand competition
is thus triggered between the incumbent employer and the.poacher., which results in a wage
increase for the worker.
However, if workers are able to vary their search intensity, then this offer-matching policy
runs into a moral hazard problem. Knowing that outside offers lead to wage increases, workers
are induced to search more intensively, which is costly for the Þrms. Assuming that Þrms can
commit never to match outside offers, we examine the set of Þrm types for which it is preferable
to do so. We derive sufficient conditions for the equilibrium to be of the sort all Þrms match or
no Þrm matches. Finally, computed examples show that, even though virtually any situation
can be observed in equilibrium when the sufficient conditions are not met, a plausible pattern
is one where a dual labor market emerges, with bad jobs at low-porductivity, nomatching arms and good jobs at high-poductiviy, matching arms.Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity 2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms985089ae14In this paper we extend the equilibrium search models of Burdett and Mortensen [1998],
Burdett and Vishwanath [1988] and Mortensen and Vishwanath [1994] to allow for endogenous matching and endogenous
capital determination. In our model, in order to attract a positive measure of workers, firms must produce a specific hiring
effort which is by itself costly (cost of advertising posts, training new employees). Workers then draw firms in proportion to
their hiring effort. Moreover, as in the model of Acemoglu and Shimer [1997], upon entering the market firms must choose a
determined amount of capital which is then fixed fore ver and indexes labourp roductivityW. e characterize the equilibrium and
derive expressions for the endogenous equilibrium wage distributions. In particular, we show that with convex or concave
hiring costs, the Nash equilibrium of the equilibrium search game is such that all operating firms must choose a different
amount of capital from a continuous distribution, and a one-to-one mapping exists between capital and wages. We calibrate
the model on French firmd ata and proceed to various simulations of tax reformsW. e thus show that a reformw hich trans
fers labour taxes from low wages to high wages, by reducing the monopsony power of large firms, is welfare improving: unem
ployment is reduced, total output is increased as well as government revenue.An Equilibrium Model of the Labour Market with Endogenous Capital and Two-Sided Search2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms98504nd0k4In this paper we study household purchase behaviour of storable food products. An inventoly
model is developed in which the household chooses an optimal stock level of the product.
Storage of the product is costly, there is a fixed cost per purchase occasion, and the market
price is sometimes discounted because of price promotions. We show that the optimal
purchase policy is an s, S policy. The model is used to derive predictions on the correlations
between interpurchase times and purchased quantities on the one hand, and prices on the
other. These predictions are empirically verified using consumer panel data.The demand for food products2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9820152qa0This paper considers tests for the rank of a matrix for which a root-T consistent estimator is available. However, in contrast to tests associated with the minimum chi-square and asymptotic least squares principles, the estimator's asymptotic variance matrix is not required to be either full or of known rank. Test statistics based on certain estimated characteristic roots are proposed whose limiting distributions are a weighted sum of independent chi-squared variables. These weights may be simply estimated, yielding convenient estimators for the limiting distributions of the proposed statistics. A sequential testing procedure is presented that yields a consistent estimator for the rank of a matrix. A simulation experiment is conducted comparing the characteristic root statistics advocated in this paper with statistics based on the Wald and asymptotic least squares principles.
Tests of rank2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9820196s0pIn this article we develop an equilibrium search model with a continuous distribution of firm productivity types within a given labor market. We characterize equilibrium, derive expressions for the endogenous equilibrium wage distributions, and characterize the set of wage distributions that can be generated by the model. We develop a structural nonparametric estimation method for the productivity distribution. We estimate the model using French longitudinal survey data on labor supply, and we compare the results with those from a French panel data set of firms. The results are informative on the degree to which firms exploit search frictions.Equilibrium search with continuous productivity dispersion: theory and nonparametric estimation2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9820172631This paper develops a new concept of separability with overlapping groups—latent separability. This is shown to provide a useful empirical and theoretical framework for investigating the grouping of goods and prices. It is a generalization of weak separability in which goods are allowed to enter more than one group and where the composition of groups is identified by the choice of group specific exclusive goods. Latent separability is shown to be equivalent to weak separability in latent rather than purchased goods and provides a relationship between separability and household production theory. For the popular class of linear, almost ideal and translog demand models and their generalizations, we provide a method for choosing the number of homothetic separable groups. A detailed method for exploring the composition of the separable groups is also presented. These methods are applied to a long time series of British individual household data on the consumption of twenty two nondurable and service goods.Latent separability: grouping goods without weak separability2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk98200k80joThe aim of this paper is to study the monotonicity properties with respect to the probability distribution of the state processes, of optimal decisions in bandit decision problems. Orderings of dynamic discrete projects are provided by extending the notion of stochastic dominance to stochastic processes.Dynamic stochastic dominance in bandit decision problems2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk982010j1k0In this article we present and estimate a synthesis of previous equilibrium search models, allowing for continuous distributions of workers' opportunity costs of employment as well as firms' productivities. The model allows for on-the-job search, and we assume that job offer arrival rates for workers are independent of their labor-market state. We derive the theoretical implications of these assumptions, we provide simulations, and we develop a semiparametric estimation procedure that we apply to a dataset of individual labor-market histories.An empirical equilibrium job search model with continuously distributed heterogeneity of workers' opportunity costs of employment and firms productivities, and search on the job2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9816b9ig1lEmpirical demand systems that do not impose unreasonable restrictions on preferences are typically non-linear. We show, however, that all popular systems possess the property of conditional linearity. A computationally attractive iterated linear least squares estimator (ILLE) is proposed for large non-linear simultaneous equation systems which are conditionally linear in unknown parameters. The estimator is shown to be consistent and its asymptotic efficiency properties are derived. An application is given for a 22-commodity quadratic demand system using household-level data from a time series of repeated cross-sections.Estimation in large and disaggregated demand systems: an estimator for conditionally linear systems2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9816b5ci3lThe purpose of this paper is to study the trade-off between purchases and home production of food. We develop a simple household production model which predicts a zero elasticity of home production with respect to total expenditure. Focusing on vegetables, we use data from the 1991 French National Food Survey. Due to data limitations, a reduced form of the structural household production model is estimated. We use Working Leser functional forms for the share of vegetables in total food consumption and the share of home production in vegetable consumption, conditional on the decision to maintain a kitchen garden. As predicted by the theoretical model, we estimate a zero elasticity of home production with respect to total vegetable outlayModelling the consumption of home-produced vegetables with an application to French households2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk981495gp0gL'objectif de ce rapport est d'avancer dans la construction d'un outil de simulation microéconomique du marché de travail. Les deux premières parties procèdent à une étude des propriétés du modèle de Burdett et Mortensen. Dans la première étude, les travailleurs sont supposés homogènes et les entreprises ont de façon exogène des productivités du travail différentes. Dans la seconde, les travailleurs peuvent en plus avoir des côuts d'opportunité du travail différents. Cependant, pour simplifier, nous avons supposé que les taux d'arrivée des offres aux chômeurs et aux employés étaient les mêmes. Ainsi, les chômeurs sont prêts à accepter n'importe quelle offre de salaire dès lors qu'elle est supérieure à leur coût d'opportunité du travail. La dernière étude prend acte de certaines limitations des modèles étudiés dans les les deux précédents chapitres et entreprend de les réduire. Dans chacune des trois études on a d'abord procédé à l'étude théorique du modèle, puis le modèle a fait l'objet d'une estimation sur données individuelles de travailleurs ou d'entreprises, enfin, le modèle ainsi calibré a été employé pour effectuer des simulations de politiques économiques variéesModèles d'équilibre de recherche d'emploi2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9816b0c833L'objet de l'article est d'estimer un modèle structurel de l'activité féminine en présence de coûts de participation variables avec le temps de travail et lorsque le revenu salarial du ménage est taxé. Innovant par rapport aux précédentes tentatives (Cogan [1981], Bourguignon, Magnac [1990]), les auteurs fondent l'identification des coûts de participation sur l'observation de certaines dépenses dont une fraction inconnue représente les coûts de participation et le reste la consommation désirée ; l'identification provenant de la population des couples dont le femme ne travaille pas, pour lesquels la totalité de la dépense est désirée. Le modèle est estimé à partir des données de l'enquête Budgets des Familles de l'INSEE effectuée en 1984/1985.Participation des femmes au marché du travail en présence de taxation directe et de coûts de participation2019-04-04T18:37:22Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9816agh1ckUsing U.S. data, Evans and Jovanovic find a strong effect of the level of assets on the probability of being self-employed. They interpret this result as evidence of liquidity constraints. In this paper, we follow up this line of research: first, by replicating Evans and Jovanovic's methodology on French data to show that the empirical evidence is similar. Second, we embed their static model into a dynamic framework with uncertainty. The main theoretical prediction that can be drawn is that if the liquidity constraint is strong enough a future increase in the “entrepreneurial ability” of an agent, although raising expected future incomes, may induce her to lower her current consumption and raise her savings.Occupational choice and liquidity constraints2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9816an62bn Modèles théorique de la spéculation sur les matières premières : stabilité locale, cycles limites, comportements quasi‐périodiques et chaos déterministes2019-04-05T18:34:59Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk98200mb5jgL'objectif de cette contribution est d'étudier les propriétés de monotonicité par rapport à la distribution de probabilité des variables d'état, des décisions optimales dans les problèmes de décision de "bandit". L'ordre des projets dynamiques discrets est obtenu par extension de la notion de dominance stochastique aux processus stochastiques.Monotonicity properties of Gittins indices2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk98148nh114 Contraintes financières, activité et chômage : une étude économétrique2019-04-04T18:37:22Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk981489h1pgCe rapporte aborde le problème de l'impact structurel des dispositifs publics visant à assurer l'insertion la plus rapide des jeunes sur le marché du travail.Insertion des jeunes sur le marché du travail : outils d'analyse et analyses empiriques2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9816a025k3This paper assesses the consequences of two reforms of the French indirect taxation system: a VAT harmonization which is close to initial EC proposals and a carbon tax which aims at decreasing the emissions of carbon dioxide. We simulate the effects of tax reforms using estimates of a model of household expenditure behaviour. Estimation is obtained by using the property of perfect aggregation over households of the Almost Ideal demand system on pooled micro data from the 1978–1979, 1984–1985, 1989 issues of the French ‘Enquête Budgets des Familles’ combined with macro data from the Quarterly National Accounts from 1970 to 1990. Simulations are conducted using a subsample of households from the 1989 consumer survey and generate useful results about the behavioural reactions to tax changes, the impact on government revenue and the distributional effects of the reforms.Simulation of indirect tax reforms using pooled micro and macro French data2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9816a585s8In this paper we apply the Indirect Inference method to estimate the parameters of a semi-Markov transition model when the data are subject to a complex form of censoring. There is no explicit expression for the likelihood function, and therefore Maximum Likelihood estimation is computationally burdensome. The econometric methodology of Indirect Inference is first tested on simulated data under various assumptions about the distribution of spell durations and transitions. Then, it is applied to labour market transitions between self-employment, wage-work, and unemployment using the 1986-1988 French labour force survey. Although the analysis is basically a reduced-form analysis, we motivate our transition model in terms of a structural search model.Analysing incomplete individual employment histories using indirect inference2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9814k9gc33Dans cet article, nous commençons par présenter l' état de la littérature économique en matière de modélisation des choix individuels de consommation et d'offre de travail en présence de coûts de participation au marché du travail (gardes d'enfants, etc.). Puis, à partir de données issues de l'enquête Budget des Familles de 1985, nous procédons à l'estimation des relations entre la demande des ménages en biens et services et la demande totale en biens et services (courbes d'Engel) conditionnellement à l' activité féminine, selon la méthodologie développée par M. Browning et C. Meghir (1991). Il apparaît ainsi que les ménages allouent différemment un même budget entre les biens, selon que la femme travaille à temps partiel ou à temps complet, ou selon qu'elle ne travaille pas.The article opens with an overview of economic literature concerning the modeling of personal consumption and labour supply choices when incorporating labour market participation costs (childminding, etc.). We then use data from the 1985 French Family Budgets survey to estimate the relationships between household demand for goods and services and total demand for goods and services (Engel curves) conditioned by female activity using M. Browning and C. Meghir's 1991 methodology. It appears that households allocate the same budget differently to goods depending on whether the woman works part time, full time or not at all.Le coût de l’activité féminine : estimation à l’aide d’un modèle de demande conditionnel2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9814r100k7This paper is devoted to the estimation of models of transitions between labour market states using data collected at discrete dates as is an ordinary longitudinal survey. The innovative feature of the paper is the use of ‘tenure’ information in conjunction with point sample information on the state occupied to identify and efficiently estimate the parameters of a homogeneous Markov process. It is shown that using simultaneously tenure and state records allows full identification of the model and therefore that within- and between-status mobility can be distinguished. This dual type of information can be exploited to design a test of the Markov assumption. An empirical application on data drawn from a balanced male subsample of the 1986 to 1988 issues of the French Labour Force Survey is presented.An econometric analysis of labour market transitions using discrete and tenure data2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9814q28ebhInfrequency of purchase models are alternatives to those derived from the classical 'utility maximization with binding nonnegativity constraints'scheme for modeling purchases that occur at random dates. An extension of those models is proposed that takes into account additional information about the exact number of times households purchased during the survey period. Various methods of estimation are described and an empirical illustration is presented with data drawn from the French Food Expenditure Survey (INSEE). Copyright 1993 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited. Econometric Analysis of the Short-Run Fluctuations of Households' Purchases 2019-04-04T18:37:19Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9814qn34g1Cet article est consacre à l'évaluation de l'impact de deux reformes de la fiscalité indirecte française : l'application d'une taxe sur le baril de pétrole visant à réduire les émissions de dioxyde de carbone et une harmonisation de la TVA proche des recommandations initiales de la CEE. Les effets des réformes sont simulés grâce aux résultats d'estimation d'un modèle de comportement de consommation des ménages obtenus en utilisant la propriété d'agrégation exacte du modèle AI (Almost Ideal demand System) sur les données des trois dernières éditions de l'enquête “Budgets des Familles” combinées aux données agrégées de la comptabilité nationale entre 1970 et 1990. Les simulations menées sur un sous-échantillon de l'enquête “Budgets des Familles” de 1989, fournissent des résultats très utiles concernant aussi bien l'impact des réformes sur les recettes fiscales du gouvernement que leurs effets redistributifs. This article assesses the impact of two French indirect tax reforms: the levying of a tax on barrels of oil with the aim of reducing carbon dioxide emissions and the bringing of VAT more into line with initial European Commission recommendations. The effects of the reforms are simulated using the estimated results from a model of household consumption behaviour. These results are obtained by applying the exact aggregation property of the AI model (Almost Ideal demand system) to the data from the last three Budgets des Familles (Family Budgets) surveys combined with aggregate data from the French national accounts from 1970 to 1990. Simulations are made on a subsample of the 1989 "Budgets des Familles" survey. They provide extremely useful results as regards the impact of reforms on government tax revenues and their redistributive effects.Évaluation des effets budgétaires et redistributifs de réformes de la fiscalité indirecte française2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9814ppihojStudies of the scale and pattern of food consumption in France during the early modern period down to the mid nineteenth century have usually underscored the extent to which households depended on local agricultural production. In a country which was still rural, even peasant in character, the means of sustenance were seen as regionally varied and almost immutable over time. In this view, most of the food available in a given place came from the family land or from farms in the neighbourhood, and people were thus assumed to have found more than go per cent of their consumption needs within a very small area, perhaps within a radius of three miles (...).Eating, Working, and Saving in an Unstable World: Consumers in Nineteenth- Century France 2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9814ok61qhIn this paper we consider a joint model for frequency of purchase and consumer demand. We discuss sufficient identifying assumptions for the estimation of consumer demands from survey data for the general case of nonlinear (or linear) Engel curves. Moreover we show that in many cases the actual number of purchases is necessary in order to obtain consistent parameter estimates for the demand system. The empirical application relates to the estimation of a demand system for French foodstuffs.Frequency of purchase and the estimation of demand systems2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9814qh8ohmDepuis la formulation de l'hypothèse du revenu permanent dans les années cinquante (Friedman, Modigliani, Brumberg), les économètres se sont beaucoup préoccupés de la question de la sensibilité de la consommation au revenu courant. C'est à partir de 1978, avec l'apport de Hall sur l'incorporation des anticipations rationnelles, que de nombreuses études empiriques, fondées sur des données agrégées, ont été menées. Les résultats ne semblant pas vraiment décisifs, les chercheurs ont tenté d'utiliser les données de panel de consommateurs autant que possible, mais celles-ci sont peu disponibles. L'article analyse ces travaux économétriques : le modèle de base anticipation rationnelle-cycle vital, ses applications et généralisations.Consumption dynamics and panel data: a survey2019-04-04T18:37:21Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9814kpg6c2L'analyse secondaire des statistiques publiées par l'INSEE fait ressortir la diversité des prix des produits alimentaires entre régions. Une argumentation en termes de coûts de production et de coûts de transports rend assez bien compte de certaines des variations enregistrées. Mais elle ne saurait suffire. Une part non négligeable de celles-ci semble en effet pouvoir s'expliquer par des imperfections de marché : existence d'oligopoles, déséquilibre offre/demande .... Toutefois, le fait marquant de ce travail reste la remarquable manière avec laquelle ces données, que nous tirons de statistiques non adaptées, se prêtent à l'analyse économique. Disparités régionales des prix des produits alimentaires 2019-04-04T18:37:20Zhttp://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9814kl7606La théorie micro-économique entend réduire au maximum le nombre d'hypothèses sur les goûts nécessaire à la construction des modèles de demande. Néanmoins aucun modèle n'atteint jamais la généralité absolue et certaines hypothèses sont même devenues tellement usuelles qu'on ne prend généralement guère la peine sinon de les expliciter complètement du moins de les discuter. Cet article analyse deux d'entre elles particulièrement utiles dans les modèles dynamiques de demande : la séparabilité intemporelle et la récursivité de la fonction d'utilité. La forme des préférences conduisant à chaque type particulier d'utilité est d'abord dérivée, nous amenant à définir les conditions équivalentes de séparabilité et de récursivité applicables aux préordres de préférences. Il est alors montré que si la séparabilité s'accommode fort bien de la récursivité, il n'en va pas de même pour la non-séparabilité. L'hypothèse de formation d'habitudes
myopes, vraisemblable en période d'apprentissage, contredit ainsi la récursivité. Or, la récursivité est par ailleurs particulièrement utile puisque nécessaire à la cohérence intertemporelle des comportements de consommation. Les conséquences de la nonvérification de cette hypothèse par la théorie de la demande sont alors analysées en détail.Two traditional assumption of dynamic demand models intertemporal separability and the recursivity of the utility function are here analyzed in detail .The kind of preferences underlying each utility function is first derived. We show that if separability easily accepts recursivity it is not the case for non-separability. Myopic habits likely assumption during learning periods contradicts recursivity. But recursivity is on another hand particularly useful since necessary condition of intertemporal consistency of consumption behavior. The consequences of non verifying this assumption fort the theory of demand are then fully examined.Les représentations implicites des goûts dans les modèles dynamiques de demande 2019-04-04T18:37:20Z