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Should we still use the concept of potential growth ?

 

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Type:   Working paper
 
Titre:   Should we still use the concept of potential growth ?
 
Auteur(s):   Mathieu, Catherine (1965-...) - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Auteur)
Sterdyniak, Henri (1951-...) - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Auteur)
 
Date de publication:   2015-12
 
Éditeur:   Paris  :  Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques
 
Collection:   Working paper de l'OFCE  :  2015-30
 
Mots-clés:   [en] potential growth, euro area governance
 
JEL:   E63,  O47
 
Résumé:   [en] The concepts of potential output level and growth survived the 2008 crisis and are still widely used in economic policy debates. The paperdiscusses thetheoretical foundations and empirical assessments of these concepts. Potential output may refer to different concepts, depending on the constraints taken into account. Potential output cannot be assessed without a complex macroeconomic analysis.The paper discusses recent empirical work on potential growth estimates,especially how they introduce a break in potential growth after the 2008 crisis, and how the methods used oftenjustify procyclical policies. For the future,the problem isnot a slowdown in potential growth butthe inability of developed economies,underglobalisation constraints, to reach afull-employment growth.
 
URL:   http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/dtravail/WP2015-30.pdf
 
 

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