Type
Article
Titre
From public outrage to the burst of public violence : An epidemic-like model
Dans
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Auteur(s)
NIZAMANI Sarwat - (Auteur)
MEMON Nasrullah - (Auteur)
GALAM Serge - Centre de recherches politiques de Sciences Po (Auteur)
Éditeur
NL : North-Holland Publishing Company
Volume
416
Pages
620 - 630 p.
ISSN
03784371
DOI
10.1016/j.physa.2014.09.006
Mots clés
Violence, Mathematical model, Public outrage
Résumé
EN
This study extends classical models of spreading epidemics to describe the phenomenon of contagious public outrage, which eventually leads to the spread of violence following a disclosure of some unpopular political decisions and/or activity. Accordingly, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate from the start, the internal dynamics by which an external event is turned into internal violence within a population. Five kinds of agents are considered: “Upset” (U), “Violent” (V), “Sensitive” (S), “Immune” (I), and “Relaxed” (R), leading to a set of ordinary differential equations, which in turn yield the dynamics of spreading of each type of agents among the population. The process is stopped with the deactivation of the associated issue. Conditions coinciding with a twofold spreading of public violence are singled out. The results shed new light to understand terror activity and provides some hint on how to curb the spreading of violence within population globally sensitive to specific world issues. Recent violent events in the world are discussed.

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