Type
Article
Title
A seat-level nowcast of the Front National in the 2017 legislatives
In
French Politics and Society
Author(s)
EVANS Jocelyn - University of Salford (Author)
IVALDI Gilles - Unité de recherche migrations et sociétés (CNRS/IRD) (URMIS) (Author)
Editor
Center for European Studies at Harvard University
Volume
14
Number
4
Pages
493 - 504 p.
ISSN
08821267
Keywords
Turnout, Front national, Legislative elections, Forecast, Seats
Abstract
EN
We look to forecast the number of seats the Front National (FN) will win in the 2017 legislative election. We use the most recent subnational ballot, the 2015 regional election, to estimate support for the party, and model reallocation of first-round legislative votes in the second round by applying the pattern seen between the 2011 cantonal and 2012 legislative elections. Using different levels of turnout and four different scenarios of Left-bloc coalition arrangements, both of which strongly influence how the FN performs in run-off ballots, we estimate that a likely, but conservative, scenario would result in 29 FN seats, if a similar pattern to 2011–2012 obtains. This number of seats would allow the FN to form a Parliamentary group in the National Assembly.

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