Type
Working paper
Titre
The state-dependence of output revisions
Dans
OFCE working paper
Éditeur
Paris : OFCE
Collection
OFCE working paper : 04/2020
Mots clés
Gross domestic product, National accounts, Revision analysis
Résumé
EN
This paper investigates whether economic activity dynamics predict GDP revisions using panel data from 15 OECD countries. We find that economic activity predicts GDP revisions: early releases tend to overestimate GDP growth during slowdowns –and vice-versa. We also find that the source of the predictability could be related to the sampling of information collection. Finally, the predictability comes from short-term economic activity dynamics rather than business cycle position.

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