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Publication date 2020-06 Collection OFCE working paper : 20/2020
EL HERRADI Mehdi
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This paper examines the distributional implications of monetary policy, either standard, non-standard or both, on income inequality in 10 Euro Area countries over the period 2000-2015. We use three different indicators of income inequality in a Panel VAR setting in order to estimate IRFs of inequality to a monetary policy shock. The identification of monetary shocks follows a one-step procedure and relies only on country-specific determinants of income distribution. Results suggest that: (i) the distributional effects of ECB’s monetary policy have been modest and (ii) mainly driven in times of conventional monetary policy measures, especially in countries with a high level of market inequalities, while, overall, (iii) standard and non-standard monetary policies do not significantly differ in terms of impact on income inequality. Results are robust to alternative data sources either for income distribution or for non-standard monetary policies.

Publication date 2020-05-20 Collection Sciences Po OFCE working paper : 19
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The note presents the computation of industry foreign inputs dependency using input-output tables. It gives details on each level of dependency and finish with the infinite computation using the Leontief inverse matrix. It ends with some evidence by using WIOT data from 2000 to 2014 which shows the high growth of the technical dependency to Chinese inputs over the past 15 years. Construction, Telecommunications and Chemicals are Chinese-dependent sectors among the 20 first which also contribute a lot to the French economy. Nevertheless, for France and European countries, the dependency to Chinese inputs is well behind the dependency to European inputs.

Publication date 2020-05-06 Collection OFCE working paper : 18/2020
DOSI Giovanni
ROVENTINI Andrea
RUSSO Emmanuele
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In this paper, we study the effects of industrial policies on international convergence using a multi-country agent-based model which builds upon Dosi et al. (2019b). The model features a group of microfounded economies, with evolving industries, populated by heterogeneous firms that compete in international markets. In each country, technological change is driven by firms’ activities of search and innovation, while aggregate demand formation and distribution follows Keynesian dynamics. Interactions among countries take place via trade flows and international technological imitation. We employ the model to assess the different strategies that laggard countries can adopt to catch up with leaders: market-friendly policies;industrial policies targeting the development of firms’ capabilities and R&D investments, as well as trade restrictions for infant industry protection; protectionist policies focusing on tariffs only. We find that markets cannot do the magic: in absence of government interventions, laggards will continue to fall behind. On the contrary, industrial policies can successfully drive international convergence among leaders and laggards, while protectionism alone is not necessary to support catching up and countries get stuck in a sort of middle-income trap. Finally, in a global trade war, where developed economies impose retaliatory tariffs, both laggards and leaders are worse off and world productivity growth slows down.

Publication date 2020-05-04 Collection OFCE working paper : 15/2020
GUERINI Mattia
MUSSO Patrick
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We develop a new method to estimate the parameters of threshold distributions for market participation based upon an agent-specific attribute and its decision outcome. This method requires few behavioral assumptions, is not data demanding, and can adapt to various parametric distributions. Monte Carlo simulations show that the algorithm successfully recovers three different parametric distributions and is resilient to assumption violations. An application to export decisions by French firms shows that threshold distributions are generally right-skewed. We then reveal the asymmetric effects of past policies over different quantiles of the threshold distributions.

Publication date 2020-05 Collection OFCE working paper : 17/2020
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Numerical simulations of fiscal space in the euro area, based on 12 different situations, point to the large uncertainty surrounding the capacity of Member States to pay back their public debts. Debt sustainability appears to depend crucially on long-term nominal interest rate being lower than nominal growth for a long period. Only in this case do major European countries experience some additional fiscal space. Although the analytics behind this exercise is common knowledge among macroeconomists, it gives an order of the magnitude of fiscal space in the euro area and it confirms that interactions between the ECB and governments are key to escape the public finances consequences of an exogenous global shock like Covid-19.

Publication date 2020-04-29 Collection OFCE working paper : 13/2020
MINETTI Raoul
MURRO Pierluigi
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New firms are often based on ideas that the founders developed while working for incumbent firms. We study the macroeconomic effects of spinoffs through a growth model of product variety expansion, driven by firm entry, and product innovation. Spinoffs stem from conflicts of interest between incumbent firms' shareholders and employees. The analysis suggests that incumbents invest more in product innovation when knowledge protection is stronger. An inverted-U shape relationship emerges, however, between the intensity of spinoff activities and the strength of the rule of law. A calibration experiment indicates that, with a good rule of law, loosening knowledge protection by 53 reduces product innovation by one fifth in the short run and one seventh in the long run, but boosts the spinoff rate by one tenth and one sixth in the short and long run, respectively. Nevertheless, per capita income growth drops and welfare deteriorates. The trade-offs are broadly consistent with evidence from Italian firms.

Publication date 2020-04-16 Collection OFCE working paper : 10/2020
EYQUEM Aurélien
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A tractable incomplete-market model with unemployment, sticky prices, and a fiscal side is used to quantify the macroeconomic effects of lockdown policies and the miti-gating effects of raising government spending and implementing UI benefit extensions. We find that the effects of lockdown policies, although we are relatively conservative about the size of the lockdown, are huge: unemployment doubles on impact and al-most triples even for relatively short lockdown durations. Output falls dramatically and debt-output ratios increase by several tens of percentage points. In addition, the surge in unemployment risk triggers a rise in precautionary savings that make such shocks Keynesian supply shocks: aggregate demand falls by more than aggregate supply, and lockdown policies are deflationary. Unfortunately, we find that raising public spending and extending UI benefits stimulate aggregate demand or improve risk-sharing but has little effects on output and unemployment, although they do alleviate the welfare losses of lockdown policies for the households.

Publication date 2020-04 Collection OFCE working paper : 12/2020
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Is the effect of US monetary policy on stock price bubbles asymmetric? We use a range of measures of excessive stock price variations that are unrelated to business cycle fluctuations. We find that the effects of monetary policy are asymmetric so responses to restrictive and expansionary shocks must be differentiated. The effects of restrictive monetary policy are more powerful than the effects of expansionary policies. We also find evidence that the asymmetric effect of monetary policy is state-contingent and depends on monetary, credit and business cycles as well as stock price boom-bust dynamics.

L'adoption d'un système universel de retraite par points modifie le lien entre les revenus du travail et la pension de retraite. Dans cet article, nous proposons de mesurer l'impact possible d'un tel changement dans différents contextes de trajectoire salariale. Nous identifions sept cas-types suffisamment stylisés pour caractériser les principales propriétés du système actuel pour des salariés du secteur privé ayant eu des carrières complètes sous le plafond de sécurité sociale. Pour aborder la transition, nous étudions deux méthodes de valorisation des droits acquis dans l'ancien système. La première est la conversion immédiate des droits en points. La seconde consiste à faire cohabiter les règles de calcul (imbrication) et à attribuer une pension acquise avant réforme au prorata de la durée de cotisation dans l'ancien système. Nous identifions un scénario central de générosité constante à long terme pour une carrière donnée. Nous montrons qu'un impact différencié (et donc une redistribution) s'observe, indépendamment du niveau de revenu, au profit de la carrière peu dynamique et au détriment de la carrière plus dynamique. Pour des carrières comportant de mauvaises années cotisées, des baisses sensibles sont à craindre. Toutefois, pour les carrières avec de faibles salaires, une hausse de la pension minimum est en mesure de limiter l'impact de ces baisses voire au contraire conduire à une pension effectivement perçue plus élevée. La méthode de valorisation des droits acquis n'est pas neutre. La conversion est plutôt avantageuse pour des carrières peu dynamiques tandis que l'imbrication des règles est plus généreuse pour les carrières les plus dynamiques.

Publication date 2020-03-27 Collection OFCE working paper : 14/2020
PERETTO Pietro
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Corporate governance distortions delay or even halt a country's transformation into a modern innovation economy. We investigate the mechanism through a growth model that allows for agency issues within firms. Governance distortions raise the cost of investment and depress the incentives to set up new firms. Modest differences in governance account for large gaps in income: A 32 percent investment cost differential can explain the secular decline of Latin America income relative to that of the USA, and implies an industrialization delay of a third of a century. We obtain similar results for a large number of countries and macro-regions.

This paper presents empirical evidence of asymmetric fiscal policy along the business cycle, using a real-time panel data on 19 OECD countries. We estimate various specifications of fiscal policy rules, in which ex ante fiscal policy has two major objectives: macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal consolidation. First, we find that a symmetric fiscal policy rule may not be an accurate representation of real-time fiscal policy. We find evidence in favor of asymmetric fiscal policy, in particular regarding the response to output gap. Second, fiscal policy appears to be generally procyclical in downturns and a-cyclical in upturns, typically in the Euro Area and during the crisis. Third, we do not find significant evidence of a procyclical fiscal consolidation in the OECD and the Euro Area, although surplus-debt feedback coefficients are generally larger in downturns. Our results are robust to an alternative measure of business cycle and to country exclusion.

Publication date 2020-02 Collection OFCE Working Paper : 07/2020
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Cet article propose une revue de la littérature relative aux évaluations d'impact du crédit d’impôt recherche (CIR) sur l'effectif des personnels de la recherche. Après un rappel de l'effet théorique du CIR sur le prix d'usage des connaissances accumulées par les entreprises, nous comparons les résultats des études concernant l'efficacité et l'efficience du dispositif. Ils révèlent, entre autres, que le CIR corrige la discrimination à l'embauche des docteurs dans les entreprises, mais avec un effet d'aubaine pour les docteurs-ingénieurs. Dans les TPE, les aides à l'emploi de RD agissent au détriment de l'emploi non-aidé, malgré le CIR. Enfin, avec seulement 2,5 % des activités de RD éligibles au CIR confiées aux organismes publics, le dispositif favorise le décloisonnement de ces organismes, mais sans effet visible sur leurs effectifs. La majorité des dépenses de RD étant des dépenses de personnel, ces résultats contribuent à expliquer le faible impact du CIR sur la R&D. Ils interrogent aussi le dévoiement du dispositif de sa mission historique : pallier le sous-investissement en RD, et non être un instrument de compétitivité des salariés hautement qualifiés, pendant que le CICE assure celle des salariés rémunérés près du SMIC. Nous concluons l'article par une discussion de la pertinence des réformes récentes du CIR.

Publication date 2020 Collection OFCE working paper : 04/2020
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This paper investigates whether economic activity dynamics predict GDP revisions using panel data from 15 OECD countries. We find that economic activity predicts GDP revisions: early releases tend to overestimate GDP growth during slowdowns –and vice-versa. We also find that the source of the predictability could be related to the sampling of information collection. Finally, the predictability comes from short-term economic activity dynamics rather than business cycle position.

Publication date 2020 Collection OFCE working paper : 23/2020
DUSSAUX Damien
DECHEZLEPRÊTRE Antoine
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Concerns about carbon offshoring, namely the relocation of dirty tasks abroad, undermine the efficiency of domestic carbon mitigation policies and might prevent governments from adopting more ambitious climate policies. This paper is the first to analyse the extent and determinants of carbon offshoring at the firm level. We combine information on carbon emissions, imports, imported emissions and environmental policy stringency based on a unique dataset of 5,000 French manufacturing firms observed from 1997 to 2014. We estimate the impact of imported emissions on firm’s domestic emissions and emission intensity using a shift-share instrumental variable strategy. We do not find compelling evidence of an impact of carbon offshoring on total emissions, but show that emission efficiency improves in companies offshoring emissions abroad, suggesting that offshored emissions are compensated by an increase in production scale. The effect is economically meaningful with a 10% increase in carbon offshoring causing a 4% decline in emission intensity. However, this effect is twice as small as that of domestic energy prices and, importantly, does not appear to be driven by a pollution haven motive.

Publication date 2020 Collection OFCE working paper : 03/2020
LABONDANCE Fabien
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Drawing on European Union data, this paper investigates the hypothesis that private credit and banking sector fragility may affect economic growth. We capture banking sector fragility both with the ratio of bank capital to assets and non-performing loans. We assess the effect of these three variables on the growth rate of GDP per capita, using the Solow growth model as a guiding framework. We observe that credit has no effect on economic performance in the EU when banking fragilities are high. However, the potential fragility of the banking sector measured by the non-performing loans decreases GDP per capita.

Publication date 2020 Collection OFCE working paper : 22/2020
POPP David
MARIN Giovanni
CHEN Ziqiao
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We evaluate the employment effect of the green part of the largest fiscal stimulus in recent history, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Each $1 million of green ARRA created 15 new jobs that emerged especially in the post-ARRA period (2013-2017). We find little evidence of significant short-run employment gains. Green ARRA creates more jobs in commuting zones with a greater prevalence of pre-existing green skills. Nearly half of the jobs created by green ARRA investments were in construction or waste management. Nearly all new jobs created are manual labor positions. Nonetheless, manual labor wages did not increase.

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We study green specialization across EU countries and detailed 4-digit industrial sectors over the period of 1995-2015 by harmonizing product-level data (PRODCOM). We propose a new list of green goods that refines lists proposed by international organizations by excluding goods with double usages. Our exploratory analysis reveals important structural properties of green specialization. First, green production is highly concentrated, with 13 out of 119 4-digit industries accounting for 95% of the total. Second, green and polluting productions do not occur in the same sectors, and countries tend to specialize in either green or brown sectors. This suggests that the distributional effect of European environmental policies can be large. Third, green specialization is highlypath dependent, but it is also reinforced by the presence of non-green capabilities within the same sector. This helps explain why economies with better engineering and technical capabilities have built a comparative advantage in green production.

Publication date 2020 Collection OFCE working paper : 01/2020
AGHION Philippe
BUNEL Simon
JARAVEL Xavier
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We use comprehensive micro data in the French manufacturing sector between 1994 and 2015 to document the effects of automation technologies on employment, wages, prices and profits. Causal effects are estimated with event studies and a shift-share IV design leveraging pre-determined supply linkages and productivity shocks across foreign suppliers of industrial equipment. At all levels of analysis —plant, firm, and industry —the estimated impact of automation on employment is positive, even for unskilled industrial workers. We also find that automation leads to higher profits, lower consumer prices, and higher sales. The estimated elasticity of employment to automation is 0.28, compared with elasticities of 0.78 for profits, -0.05 for prices, and 0.37 for sales. Consistent with the importance of business-stealing across countries, the industry-level employment response to automation is positive and significant only in industries that face international competition. These estimates can be accounted for in a simple monopolistic competition model: firms that automate more increase their profits but pass through some of the productivity gains to consumers, inducing higher scale and higher employment. The results indicate that automation can increase labor demand and can generate productivity gains that are broadly shared across workers, consumers and firm owners. In a globalized world, attempts to curb domestic automation in order to protect domestic employment may be self-defeating due to foreign competition.

Publication date 2020 Collection OFCE working paper : 24/2020
GAFFARD Jean-Luc
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Le néo-libéralisme actuel fait figure de résurgence de l’utopie du marché autorégulé. Ses effets destructeurs, aujourd’hui comme hier, sont à l’origine d’un retour du politique oscillant entre nationalisme et autoritarisme, d’un côté, libéralisme social de l’autre. Ce défi, identifié par Polanyi en son temps, nous rappelle qu’aucune société n’est possible sans pouvoir ni obligation. Suivant les néo-libéraux, pour qui le but souhaitable reste une économie de marché mondialisée qui serait débarrassée de tout pouvoir, il appartient paradoxalement, au pouvoir politique de mettre en œuvre les réformes nécessaires pour que les individus s’adaptent aussi vite que possible à cette donne. Cette recherche de flexibilité et d’adaptabilité tranche avec un libéralisme social qui fait dépendre la viabilité des changements inhérents au capitalisme de l’existence de mécanismes de stabilisation rendant les adaptations lentes et progressives: un libéralisme qui n’exclut ni le pouvoir, ni la contrainte. La thèse que nous entendons défendre est que le libéralisme ne pourra survivre que sous sa forme de libéralisme social dont le trait distinctif est certes de faire place à une régulation macroéconomique, mais aussi, et plus généralement, de faire prévaloir des formes de coopération ou d’interaction sociale conciliant efficacité et équité, stabilité ou inertie et évolution.

Publication date 2020 Collection OFCE working paper : 02/2020
LABONDANCE Fabien
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Does policymakers’ choice of words matter? We explore empirically whether central bank tone conveyed in FOMC statements contains useful information for financial market participants. We quantify central bank tone using computational linguistics and identify exogenous shocks to central bank tone orthogonal to the state of the economy. Using an ARCH model and a high-frequency approach, we find that positive central bank tone increases interest rates at the 1-year maturity. We therefore investigate which potential pieces of information could be revealed by central bank tone. Our tests suggest that it relates to the dispersion of views among FOMC members. This information may be useful to financial markets to understand current and future policy decisions. Finally, we show that central bank tone helps predicting future policy decisions.

Publication date 2020 Collection OFCE working paper : 16/2020
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Cette étude examine quelques grands chantiers structurants dans l’avancement de la transition sociale-écologique dans cinq villes françaises. Elle propose de définir les enjeux de la transition sociale-écologique urbaine en France selon deux modalités. La première consiste à diviser les domaines de la transition sociale-écologique en quatre grands axes couvrant un certain nombre de thématiques clés et les politiques qui s’y rapportent ; la seconde vise à préciser les compétences sociales-écologiques des communes selon le droit en vigueur. La première partie de cette étude est consacrée à la définition de cette double grille d’évaluation. Et la deuxième détaille quelques grands chantiers mis en œuvre dans les cinq villes retenues. En conclusion, on tire quatre enseignements de ce panorama partiel.

Publication date 2020 Collection OFCE working paper : 06/2020
REICHLIN Lucrezia
RICCO Giovanni
HASENZAGL Thomas
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We evaluate the role of financial conditions as predictors of macroeconomic risk first in the quantile regression framework of Adrian et al. (2019b), which allows for non-linearities, and then in a novel linear semi-structural model as proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between price variables such as credit spreads and stock variables such as leverage. We find that (i) although the spreads correlate with the left tail of the conditional distribution of GDP growth, they provide limited advanced information on growth vulnerability; (ii) nonfinancial leverage provides a leading signal for the left quantile of the GDP growth distribution in the 2008 recession; (iii) measures of excess leverage conceptually similar to the Basel gap, but cleaned from business cycle dynamics via the lenses of the semi-structural model, point to two peaks of accumulation of risks – the eighties and the first eight years of the new millennium, with an unstable relationship with business cycle chronology.

Publication date 2019-11 Collection OFCE working paper : 20/2019
CUMMING Fergus
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This paper investigates how the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy depends on the distribution of household debt. Using an original loan-level dataset covering the universe of UK mortgages, we assess the effect of monetary shocks on aggregate consumption by exploiting time variation in a measure of the proportion of households close to their borrowing constraint. We find that monetary policy is most potent when there is a large share of constrained households. In contrast, we find noevidence that the average level of borrowing relative-to-income of the household sector affects the transmission of monetary policy.

Publication date 2019-11
GUERINI Mattia
THI LUU Duc
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We propose a novel approach to investigate the synchronization of business cycles and we apply it to a Eurostat database of manufacturing industrial production time-series in the European Union (EU) over the 2000-2017 period. Our approach exploits Random Matrix Theory and extracts the latent information contained in a balanced panel data by cleaning it from possible spurious correlation. We employ this method to study the synchronization among different countries over time. Our empirical exercise tracks the evolution of the European synchronization patterns and identifies the emergence of synchronization clusters among different EU economies. We find that synchronization in the Euro Area increased during the first decade of the century and that it reached a peak during the Great Recession period. It then decreased in the aftermath of the crisis, reverting to the levels observable at the beginning of the 21st century. Second, we show that the asynchronous business cycle dynamics at the beginning of the century was structured along a East-West axis, with eastern European countries having a diverging business cycle dynamics with respect to their western partners. The recession brought about a structural transformation of business cycles co-movements in Europe. Nowadays the divide can be identified along the North vs. South axis. This recent surge in asynchronization might be harmful for the European Unio because it implies countries’ heterogeneous responses to common policies.

In the coming decades, the countries of the South will be facing the aging of the population faster than the countries of the North. This will have long-term economic consequences for the South but also for the North through the changing of international capital flows. To study the latter, we build a simple two-region two-period OLG model, assuming fully integrated financial markets. This allows us to determine the analytical expression of the world interest rate dynamics at general equilibrium and the resulting capital flows accruing to each of the two regions (the North and the South). From there, we analyse how a reduction in either fertility or mortality alters the magnitude of the international capital flows. Contradictory effects are evidenced. To clear up any ambiguity and to study the South's demographic transition, which involves a succession of shocks, we propose numerical simulations. Even if the results stress that the institutional context and technological catching-up may matter, they suggest in a rather general way that the declines in both fertility and mortality tend to reduce the relative capital needs of the Southern economies and consequently their capital inflows. This, in turn, would be beneficial to the North's productive capacity, which should then hold more capital.

Publication date 2019-10 Collection Working paper de l'OFCE : 16
FILARDO Andrew
RUNGCHAROENKITKUL Phurichai
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This paper examines whether monetary policy reaction function matters for financial stability. We measure how responsive the Federal Reserve’s policy appears to be to imbalances in the equity, housing and credit markets. We find that changes in these policy sensitivities predict the later development of financial imbalances. When monetary policy appears to respond more countercyclically to market overheating, imbalances tend to decline over time. This effect is distinct from that of current and anticipated interest rate levels – the risk-taking channel. The evidence highlights the importance of a “policy reaction function” channel of monetary policy in shaping the financial cycle.

Publication date 2019-09 Collection OFCE Working paper : 2019-15
EL HERRADI Mehdi
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This paper examines the distributional effects of monetary policy, either standard, nonstandard or both, on income inequality in 10 EA countries over the period 2000-2015. We use three different indicators of income inequality in a Panel VAR setting in order to estimate IRFs of inequality to a monetary policy shock. Results suggest that: (i) the distributional effects of ECB’s monetary policy have been modest and (ii) mainly driven in times of conventional monetary policy measures, especially in peripheral countries, while, overall, (iii) standard and non-standard monetary policies do not significantly differ in terms of impact on income inequality.terms of impact on income inequality.

Edited by OFCE Publication date 2019-07 Collection OFCE Working Paper : 2019-10
BOUNGOU Whelsy
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Using a panel dataset of 2442 banks operating in the 28 EU countries over the period from 2011 to 2017, this paper aims to assess the impact of negative interest rates on banks‟ profitability and risk-taking. Using dynamic panel models, we find that the effect of negative interest rates on banks' margins is stronger compared to an environment of positive rates. We notice that negative rates have squeezed banks' net interest margins. We also find that banks have offset the effects on margins by increasing non-interest income. Furthermore, negative interest rates contributed to a reduction in banks' risk-taking. Finally, we note that the effects of negative rates on profitability and risk-taking differ among banks, depending on their specific balance sheet characteristics.

A l’aide du modèle de microsimulation Ines (Insee-Drees-Cnaf), nous simulons trois réformes du quotient conjugal : une individualisation l’impôt, la réduction à 1,5 part du quotient conjugal en ouvrant la possibilité pour les couples mariés/pacsés d’opter pour une imposition individuelle, enfin le plafonnement du quotient conjugal au même niveau que le quotient familial. L’individualisation conduit au gain fiscal le plus élevé (environ 7 milliards) contre 5 milliards pour le quotient conjugal à 1,5 part et 3 milliards pour le plafonnement du quotient conjugal. Avec l’individualisation, 46% des ménages sont perdants et la perte est inférieure à 1.5% du revenu disponible pour la moitié des perdants ; 60% des perdants se situent dans les 3 derniers déciles de niveau de vie contre 6% dans les trois premiers. Avec un quotient conjugal à 1,5 part, 45% des couples sont perdants (soit environ 5,8 millions) pour une perte médiane de 680 euros, correspondant à 1.3% du revenu disponible ; 64% des perdants se situent dans les 3 derniers déciles. Enfin avec le plafonnement 7% des couples sont perdants (soit environ 895 000) pour une perte moyenne de 3200 euros par an, et une perte médiane de 1800 euros, soit 2.6% du revenu disponible ; 83% des perdants se situent dans les 3 derniers déciles.

This paper aims to explain why the division of domestic labor within couples differs according to their marital status. We analyze the evolution of the gender division of labor in France using time-use surveys (1985, 1999 and 2009). In 1985 and in 1998, married women were performing a larger share of domestic labor than cohabiting women. In 1985 this gap is explained by differences in the observed characteristics of married and cohabiting couples, whereas by the late 1990s cohabiting couples were opting for an organization that was less unequal than that of married couples, all else being equal. In 2009, the average share of domestic labor performed by women was about the same whether they were cohabiting or married (72% and 73.5%), but it was significantly lower for women in civil union, which was introduced in 1999 (65.1%). The self-selection process of couples regarding their gender ideology might explain this result: the civil partnership attracts more egalitarian couples.

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