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William Genieys décrypte les enjeux des élections américaines de mi-mandat. Qu'il suit depuis New-York, dans le cadre de son travail de chercheur. 1ère lignes : Dans quelle ambiance se déroule la fin de campagne ? L’ambiance est très tendue entre deux camps qui s’invectivent en permanence. Le débat sur les questions de fond entre le parti démocrate et le parti républicain n’existe pas. Chacun fait campagne en direction de son électorat en espérant mobiliser suffisamment sa base pour l’emporter dans la dernière ligne droite. Cette stratégie est pour le coup classique aux Etats-Unis en raison d’un abstentionnisme structurel très fort pour les élections de mi-mandat, le taux de participation est en règle générale en dessous de la barre des 50% ! Toutefois, il semblerait comme le montre le taux de participation pour les votes anticipés par correspondance, 150% plus élevé que pour les élections précédentes. Ce scrutin est celui d’une Amérique divisée en deux...

in The Decisionist Imagination: Sovereignty, Social Science, and Democracy in the Twentieth Century Sous la direction de GUILHOT Nicolas, BESSNER Daniel Publié en 2018-10
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This item has no abstract

The Future of the World is devoted to the intriguing field of study which emerged after World War Two, futurism or futurology. Jenny Andersson explains how futurist scholars and researchers imagined the Cold War and post Cold War world and the tools and methods they would use to influence and change that world. Futurists were a motley crew of Cold War warriors, nuclear scientists, journalists, and peace activists. Some argued it should be a closed sphere of science defined by delimited probabilities. They were challenged by alternative notions of the future as a potentially open realm. Futurism also drew on an eclectic range of repertoires, some of which were deduced from positivist social science, mathematics, and nuclear physics, and some of which sprung from alternative forms of knowledge in science fiction, journalism, or religion. These different forms of prediction laid very different claims to how accurately futures could be known, and what kind of control could be exerted over what was yet to come. The Future of the World carefully examines these different engagements with the future, and inscribes them in the intellectual history of the post war period. Using unexplored archival collections, The Future of the World reconstructs the Cold War networks of futurologists and futurists. [Publisher's abstract]

in Reconfiguring European States in Crisis Sous la direction de KING Desmond, LE GALÈS Patrick Publié en 2017-03
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This chapter examines the predictive technologies employed by states to transform potentially chaotic social futures into a number of manageable ones. The process by which this happens can be opened up as one in which key forms of knowledge and expertise, but also discursive and symbolic forms of power, are mobilized as part of the social technologies of government. The rise of predictive technologies is indicative of a post-war state ambition to govern future expectation, which is itself crucial to contemporary policy practices. Although this aim to plan future governance does not simply originate after 1945, its modern incarnation does arise in the context of a search for novel forms of control originating first in a militarization of the state in the Cold War era, and spills over into governmental rationalities marked by neoliberalism from the 1970s onwards.

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This article is concerned with the concept of “scientific and technological revolution” (STR) as it was elaborated since the late 1950s and early 1960s by the Czechoslovak philosopher Radovan Richta. The aim of this text is to analyze Richta’s theory of revolution, which was a vital part of his STR research project, and to place it within the wider context of the thinking about revolution in post-war Czechoslovakia. The STR theory of revolution is discussed as part of a longer development from the discourse of “national and democratic revolution” in the immediate post-war years and transformations of the theory of revolution under Stalinism and post-Stalinism to Richta’s attempt to renew and rethink the issue of revolution as a part of the reform communist political and social thinking.

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In The Power of Systems, Egle Rindzeviciute introduces readers to one of the best-kept secrets of the Cold War: the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, an international think tank established by the U.S. and Soviet governments to advance scientific collaboration. From 1972 until the late 1980s IIASA in Austria was one of the very few permanent platforms where policy scientists from both sides of the Cold War divide could work together to articulate and solve world problems. This think tank was a rare zone of freedom, communication, and negotiation, where leading Soviet scientists could try out their innovative ideas, benefit from access to Western literature, and develop social networks, thus paving the way for some of the key science and policy breakthroughs of the twentieth century.Ambitious diplomatic, scientific, and organizational strategies were employed to make this arena for cooperation work for global change. Under the umbrella of the systems approach, East-West scientists co-produced computer simulations of the long-term world future and the anthropogenic impact on the environment, using global modeling to explore the possible effects of climate change and nuclear winter. Their concern with global issues also became a vehicle for transformation inside the Soviet Union. The book shows how computer modeling, cybernetics, and the systems approach challenged Soviet governance by undermining the linear notions of control on which Soviet governance was based and creating new objects and techniques of government.

in The Politics of Globality since 1945 Sous la direction de VAN MUNSTER Rens, CASPER Sylvest Publié en 2016-06
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This timely, comprehensive and interdisciplinary volume advances an original argument about the complex roots and multiple politics of globality. It shows that technological innovations and decisive developments since 1945 – from the nuclear revolution to anthropogenic climate change and debates about the Anthropocene – have prompted reflections on the global condition of humanity and helped reshape political communities by making the world (appear) small, manageable and interconnected.

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This article is concerned with the process of introduction and the further expansion of social scientific expertise in state socialist Czechoslovakia from the mid-1950s until 1989. It presents these developments in the context of the changing policy strategies of the Communist Party elites and describes how closely social scientific expertise, and social scientific knowledge production in general, was interconnected with the broader development of the state socialist governance from the post-Stalinism of the second half of the 1950s to the 1980s perestroika period. This text is structured around three crucial realms of the state socialist governance: state, economy and labor, and socialist society. The first part of the article is concerned with the expertise in the field of state, law and political sciences, which played a significant role during the late 1950s, when the socialist statebuilding project was finished. The following section focuses on the rise of social scientific expert culture during the reform communist period of the 1960s. The third part of this study analyzes how the reform communist expert culture was transformed by the post-1968 regime in a large expert apparatus in order to build strictly centralized technocratic governance. Finally, this article describes how social scientific expertise responded to the crisis and disorganization of state socialist governance during the perestroika period

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This article argues for the importance of Soviet forecasting and scientific future studies in shaping Soviet governmentalities in the post-Stalinist period. The de-Stalinization of Soviet governance not only involved the abolition of Iosif Stalin's personality cult but also led to wider intellectual changes in conceptions of the nature, possibilities, and tasks of governance. Some of these changes, such as the impact of cybernetics after its rehabilitation in 1956, have been explored by historians of science and technology. However, although cybernetic control is based on prediction and therefore principally oriented toward the future, a new branch of scientific governance, scientific forecasting, has been overlooked, despite its transformative role as an applied policy science. Scientific forecasting sought to generate knowledge about the future states of the Soviet economy and society, becoming a field of reform, innovation, and power struggle, one that needs to be rediscovered by scholars. This article lays the groundwork for such rediscovery, outlining a brief history of Soviet scientific forecasting and drawing out its relation to east-west intellectual and governmental interaction. (First paragraph)

in Science Studies during the Cold War and Beyond. Paradigms Defected Sous la direction de ARONOVA Elena, TURCHETTI Simone Publié en 2016
SOMMER Vitezslav
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La prospective est un objet pertinent pour comprendre les savoirs et formes d’expertises mobilisés par l’action étatique contemporaine. Reposant sur des instruments allant de la quantification à la production qualitative de scénarios d’avenir, elle émerge dans les années 1960 comme une forme d’expertise étatique capable d’ordonner le champ social et gouverner le changement social. La catégorie du « long terme » résulte d’une circulation des idées entre les courants français et américains qui travaillent au tournant des années 1950 et 1960 à la formulation d’outils pour la décision. Cet article étudie cette genèse et l’institutionnalisation du long terme au sein de l’État français, depuis le « souci d’avenir » qui préoccupe les élites au lendemain de la crise de Mai 1968 jusqu’au développement de l’État-stratège. Les idées managériales qui ont donné naissance à la prospective se transforment dans une réflexion de New Public Management, attestant de la continuité d’une approche entrepreneuriale de l’État.

in The struggle for the long term in transnational science and politics: Forging the future Sous la direction de ANDERSSON Jenny, ANDERSSON Jenny, RINDZEVICIUTE Egle Publié en 2015-05
RINDZEVICIUTE Egle
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This item has no abstract

in The struggle for the long term in transnational science and politics: Forging the future Sous la direction de ANDERSSON Jenny, ANDERSSON Jenny, RINDZEVICIUTE Egle Publié en 2015-05
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This chapter traces the rise of futurism in the immediate post war period in the ideas of a number of intellectuals central to its making: the American urbanist Lewis Mumford; the Dutch sociologist Fred Polak; the economist Kenneth Boulding and his equally prominent wife, peace activist Elise Boulding; the German journalist Robert Jungk; the Norwegian international relations theorist Johan Galtung; and the former RANDian, systems theorist Hazan Ozbekhan. In this chapter, I argue that through the ideas of these intellectuals and scientists, the future reemerged as a utopian category.

in The Struggle for the Long-Term in Transnational Science and Politics: Forging the Future Sous la direction de SOMMER Vitezslav, ANDERSSON Jenny, SOMMER Vitezslav Publié en 2015-05
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In the late 1980s, the Czechoslovak public was enthralled by prognostika. Scholars and experts, mainly economists who were involved in the forecasting project of the Academy of Sciences (CSAS) Forecasting Institute (Prognostický ústav) and in other more informal expert activities, constituted an important part of the newborn critically minded intelligentsia, which was composed of professionals increasingly dissatisfied with growing economic and political malaise; their field of inquiry became a political phenomenon of Czechoslovak perestroika.

Sous la direction de ANDERSSON Jenny, RINDZEVICIUTE Egle Publié en 2015-05 Collection Routledge Approaches to History
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This book reconsiders the power of the idea of the future. Bringing together perspectives from cultural history, environmental history, political history and the history of science, it investigates how the future became a specific field of action in liberal democratic, state socialist and post-colonial regimes after the Second World War. It highlights the emergence of new forms of predictive scientific expertise in this period, and shows how such forms of expertise interacted with political systems of the Cold War world order, as the future became the prism for dealing with post-industrialisation, technoscientific progress, changing social values, Cold War tensions and an emerging Third World. A forgotten problem of cultural history, the future re-emerges in this volume as a fundamentally contested field in which forms of control and central forms of resistance met, as different actors set out to colonise and control and others to liberate. The individual studies of this book show how the West European, African, Romanian and Czechoslovak "long term" was constructed through forms of expertise, computer simulations and models, and they reveal how such constructions both opened up new realities but also imposed limits on possible futures.

in The Struggle for the Long Term in Transnational Science and Politics: Forging the Future Sous la direction de ANDERSSON Jenny, RINDZEVICIUTE Egle Publié en 2015
RINDZEVICIUTE Egle
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This chapter argues that computer-based global modelling produced particular long-term horizons which played an important, transformative role in Soviet governance by opening it up to East–West cooperation. Global modellers conceptualized the planet as a complex, interconnected system, the understanding of which required transnational scientific cooperation, enabling both scientists and data to cross national boundaries and Cold War divisions. In turn, Soviet scientists forged and used the idea of the long-term future of the world to reveal and criticize problems being experienced, but not always acknowledged, in the Soviet Union. A history of computer-based global modelling is, therefore, a history of intertwining globalization, the transformation of the Soviet regime, and East–West transfer. [First paragraph]

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Le futur en tant que technologie intellectuelle en Union soviétique : de la planification centralisée au management réflexif. L’article examine comment le futur – ici envisagé en tant que technique spécifique d’orientation vers l’avant – a été utilisé en Union soviétique pour organiser et légitimer des pratiques informelles de gestion et de planification. Cette étude aborde l’histoire, encore inexplorée, du management réflexif dans un régime autoritaire en se centrant sur l’œuvre de Georgij Ščedrovickij, philosophe russe et gourou en management. Empruntant à la notion cybernétique de téléologie (qui faisait de la réflexivité dans la définition des objectifs une condition clé du contrôle), Georgij Ščedrovickij a enseigné aux gestionnaires soviétiques comment formuler des buts propres. Ce faisant, il a contribué à l’érosion du monopole du parti communiste en matière d’objectifs. En outre, à travers le maniement de jeux de gestion et d’organisation, cette nouvelle téléologie n’a pas seulement transformé les administrations bureaucratiques en des collectifs informels, elle a aussi conféré une légitimité inédite à l’informalité – une légitimité émancipatrice dans le contexte soviétique, mais hautement ambiguë à l’ère postsoviétique.

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This paper is a historical study of two institutions devoted to the problem of the future – the Dutch WRR (the Scientific Council for Government) and the Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies – both created in 1972. While there is a growing interest in the social sciences for prediction, future imaginaries and the governance of risk, few studies have examined historically the integration of the category of the ‘future’ or the ‘long term’ in political systems in the postwar years, a period in which this category took on specific meaning and importance. We suggest that governing the long-term posed fundamental problems to particular societal models of expertise, decision-making and public participation. We argue that the scientific and political claim to govern the future was fundamentally contested, and that social struggle around the role and content of predictive expertise determined how the long term was incorporated into different systems of knowledge production and policy-making.

in Forum Historiae Publié en 2013
SOMMER Vitezslav
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The article discusses the relationship between historiography of the contemporary history and the research into the phenomenon iof future in the era of state socialism. The author first briefly introduces the issue of "exploring the Future" and the "politics of the future", pointing to two possible concepts - the future as utopia or a horizon of expectations, and the future as a subject of expertise and governance. These two perspectives are then put into the context of the theory and practice of state-socialist administration of the state and society. The future appears in the text especially as the subject of social science research and related expert activities. The historiographical research into the future is not exhausted by describing "images of the future", but it also aims to perform an analysis of expert and political techniques that were intended for the implementation of the proposed development strategies. The aim of the text is to draw attention to the conceptualization of future in the socialist dictatorship as an important topic deserving the attention of the Czech and Slovak historiography of contemporary history. At the same time, the article is an introduction to the topic, which has been a neglected subject of research so far. The author believes that research in the area of the "politics of the future" has got a significant potential to expand the knowledge in the history of social sciences and the history of state-socialist government. Simultaneously, the knowledge on how state socialism handled the factor of the future can serve as the basis for the development of more detailed characteristics of the socialist dictatorship as such.

Publié en 2012-12 Collection Les Cahiers européens de Sciences Po : 04/2012
RINDZEVICIUTE Egle
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This working paper explores the role of the future as a space of scientific exchange and dialogue in the Cold War period. We argue that in East and West the governance of the future were understood as both intellectual and technical problem that, importantly, challenged existing notions of the nature of liberal democratic and communist political regimes. Casting the future as a governable sphere led to the development of new forms of scientific governance which sought explicitly to depoliticize the future and turn it into a new transnational domain of technocratic politics. The paper focuses on the parallels and exchanges among American and Soviet futurologists. East-West collaboration was essential to the invention of the future as a governable technoscientific space, situated beyond political dispute.

in American Historical Review Publié en 2012-12
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In 1964, two researchers at RAND, Olaf Helmer and Theodore Gordon, presented what they argued was a general theory of prediction, a theory that, Helmer boasted, would “enabl[e] us to deal with socio-economic and political problems as confidently as we do with problems in physics and chemistry.” Work had begun at RAND in the early 1960s to find a systematic and scientific approach to the future. Computers had made it possible to “amass all available information” about ongoing developments and process it in a systematic way, providing “the kind of massive data processing and interpreting capability that, in the physical sciences, created the breakthrough which led to the development of the atomic bomb.” This meant a radical shift in notions of the future, a shift that was emphasized by many of the futurists of the period. The future, Helmer stated in another assertive piece, could now be liberated from the grip of utopian fantasy and superstition and be welcomed into the halls of science.